Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$12

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

41.7%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

47 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$352

$352 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$31

3 positions

First seen

2026-10-10

last 11-02 05:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Politics

50% 47% +$20

Other

42% 47% +$21

Crypto

8% 0% -$29

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	+20	$11	100¢	$20	+$10	10-30 07:21
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	+14	$10	74¢	$10	+$0	11-02 05:24
Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more?	No	+39	$7	1¢	$0	-$7	11-01 11:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	3	$35	43	22	+20	open	—	10-30 07:21
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 October 5-11?	1	$20	305	0	+305	No	-$20	10-11 22:00
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Any Candidate Gets Most Votes Ever?	2	$15	35	19	+16	Yes	-$5	10-23 22:16
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%?	1	$13	27	0	+27	No	+$14	10-12 18:25
Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more?	2	$13	50	11	+39	open	—	11-01 11:23
Will Trump say "Drag Show" during his Midterm Rally in Kansas?	1	$11	32	0	+32	No	+$21	10-19 10:22
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	2	$10	22	0	+22	Yes	+$12	10-23 18:22
McDonald's (MCD) Q3 global comparable sales growth 1% to 2%?	1	$10	23	0	+23	open	—	11-01 23:15
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	1	$10	29	0	+29	Yes	-$10	10-21 16:12
Will American Express (AXP) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$10	100	0	+100	Yes	-$10	10-22 22:13
Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	1	$10	16	0	+16	Yes	+$6	10-31 11:19
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	1	$10	21	0	+21	Yes	-$10	10-23 12:23
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	1	$10	34	0	+34	Yes	-$10	10-30 17:19
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	1	$10	27	0	+27	Yes	+$17	11-01 11:13
Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	1	$10	56	0	+56	Yes	-$10	10-25 17:24
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	1	$10	30	0	+30	No	-$10	10-25 19:25
Will Ilija Srdanović become Serbian PM and Iliana Iotova win Bulgaria?	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	10-31 23:15
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	11-02 05:24
Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?	2	$9	16	16	+0	No	-$1	10-24 06:21
United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?	1	$8	20	0	+20	No	+$11	10-19 12:23
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	1	$8	14	0	+14	Yes	+$7	10-11 06:13
Will KeyCorp (KEY) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$7	15	0	+15	Yes	-$7	10-20 10:20
will trump say chip during his midterm rally in arizona october 14	1	$7	18	0	+18	Yes	-$7	10-14 07:58
will trump say hormuz during his midterm rally in arizona october 14	1	$6	19	0	+19	Yes	+$13	10-14 10:13
Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	1	$6	11	0	+11	Yes	+$5	10-15 10:17
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	1	$6	22	0	+22	Yes	-$6	10-10 12:12
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	1	$6	19	0	+19	No	+$13	10-20 10:20
Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	1	$6	11	0	+11	Yes	+$6	10-12 10:11
will trump say nuclear during his midterm rally in kentucky october 17	1	$6	13	0	+13	No	+$8	10-17 10:20
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	1	$5	12	0	+12	Yes	+$6	10-13 18:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 05:24:22	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xf0694c…
11-01 23:15:37	McDonald's (MCD) Q3 global comparable sales growth 1% to 2%?	No	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x816ec0…
11-01 11:23:34	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more?	No	SELL	11	25¢	$3	0xf89304…
11-01 11:13:43	Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x62397c…
10-31 23:15:39	Will Ilija Srdanović become Serbian PM and Iliana Iotova win Bulgaria?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x8b15c5…
10-31 11:23:51	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x313afe…
10-31 11:19:45	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xfeddc7…
10-30 17:19:48	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xb528b8…
10-30 07:21:36	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	SELL	22	49¢	$11	0xafe600…
10-30 07:21:36	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$11	0x92116d…
10-25 19:25:57	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xd7a129…
10-25 17:24:33	Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	No	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x48ff7f…
10-24 12:21:48	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	BUY	22	63¢	$14	0xa2bf4c…
10-24 06:21:50	Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?	Yes	SELL	16	24¢	$4	0x2178aa…
10-23 22:16:18	Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Any Candidate Gets Most Votes Ever?	No	SELL	19	26¢	$5	0xc30bf4…
10-23 18:22:26	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	12	45¢	$5	0x316bcf…
10-23 12:23:02	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x155ce9…
10-23 10:14:56	Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Any Candidate Gets Most Votes Ever?	No	BUY	35	28¢	$10	0x7f7913…
10-22 22:13:26	Will American Express (AXP) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x737123…
10-21 16:12:50	Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	No	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x879c34…
10-20 22:18:21	Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Q3 comparable sales growth 4% to 6%?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x61a83e…
10-20 10:20:29	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	19	32¢	$6	0x7ca920…
10-20 10:20:29	Will KeyCorp (KEY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	15	48¢	$7	0x72d18c…
10-19 22:16:33	Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 32% to 34%?	No	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0xfdebdf…
10-19 16:10:21	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	No	BUY	22	19¢	$4	0x4a64fb…
10-19 12:23:24	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x04bf3e…
10-19 10:22:35	Will Trump say "Drag Show" during his Midterm Rally in Kansas?	No	BUY	32	35¢	$11	0x21665f…
10-19 04:20:12	Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 34% to 36%?	Yes	BUY	8	32¢	$2	0xf6d2f9…
10-17 10:20:08	will trump say nuclear during his midterm rally in kentucky october 17	No	BUY	13	42¢	$6	0x6561d7…
10-16 06:22:40	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x78b774…
10-15 12:24:25	Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0x34a351…
10-15 10:17:22	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	BUY	11	58¢	$6	0xcf293a…
10-14 22:12:12	will trump say coal during his midterm rally in montana october 14	No	BUY	27	12¢	$3	0x6f28c9…
10-14 16:16:18	will trump say cow during his midterm rally in montana october 14	Yes	BUY	18	20¢	$4	0x976f12…
10-14 10:13:13	will trump say hormuz during his midterm rally in arizona october 14	Yes	BUY	19	34¢	$6	0x46b96b…
10-14 07:58:40	will trump say chip during his midterm rally in arizona october 14	No	BUY	18	40¢	$7	0xa3dbab…
10-13 22:13:52	Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%?	No	BUY	12	30¢	$4	0xd38388…
10-13 18:22:25	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	Yes	BUY	12	46¢	$5	0x1e515b…
10-13 16:20:27	Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 89% to 92%?	Yes	BUY	15	28¢	$4	0xbe02ab…
10-13 12:27:07	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	17	26¢	$4	0x0aaa35…
10-12 18:25:24	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%?	No	BUY	27	48¢	$13	0x03effc…
10-12 10:11:11	Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	Yes	BUY	11	50¢	$6	0x7f4054…
10-12 04:05:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 12?	No	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0xfffa07…
10-12 04:05:54	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on October 12?	Yes	BUY	43	9¢	$4	0x0ea261…
10-11 22:00:56	Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 October 5-11?	Yes	BUY	305	7¢	$20	0xfbbfbe…
10-11 06:13:02	Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	Yes	BUY	14	53¢	$8	0xf48b10…
10-10 12:12:48	Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	No	BUY	22	28¢	$6	0xa73395…