Ruddy-Prize — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$243

Unrealized P&L

-$35

Hit rate

57.0%

Resolved

1,094

Trades

8,200

lifetime

Volume

$31.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$78

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 17:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 211 days

Categories

Other

50% 29% +$708

Crypto

46% 30% -$998

Politics

3% 21% +$99

Sports

0% 20% -$52

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 148 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	—	+150	$22	20¢	$31	+$8	10-28 14:17
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes		+288	$37	11¢	$30	-$6	10-28 11:57
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes		+400	$33	3¢	$12	-$21	10-27 18:15
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?	Yes		+400	$22	1¢	$5	-$16	10-25 04:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 76k on april 18	41	$743	1,500	1,500	+0	Yes	+$563	04-18 13:43
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	12	$296	1,800	1,000	+800	No	+$280	06-02 14:25
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 320 339	28	$292	665	900	-235	No	+$252	02-20 12:10
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	15	$271	600	600	+0	Yes	+$141	09-18 14:08
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 280 299	56	$263	2,340	2,440	-100	No	+$126	04-03 09:25
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 300 319	62	$241	2,205	1,100	+1,106	No	+$64	04-07 13:57
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?	26	$237	661	151	+510	Yes	-$56	10-24 14:17
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 280 299	40	$235	1,200	950	+250	No	+$65	03-19 19:01
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 240 259	25	$218	700	600	+100	No	+$44	03-31 15:34
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	6	$209	330	330	+0	open	—	10-25 02:39
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-11?	9	$198	200	200	+0	Yes	+$162	05-11 20:41
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	7	$183	900	675	+225	No	+$91	02-01 05:29
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	17	$179	518	230	+288	open	—	10-28 11:57
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17?	14	$178	1,600	300	+1,300	No	+$26	05-15 20:39
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 280 299	17	$177	900	600	+300	No	+$35	04-17 02:37
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	8	$176	200	200	+0	Yes	+$141	06-02 13:40
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 260 279	12	$174	300	300	+0	Yes	+$102	04-03 08:14
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	17	$164	1,500	1,400	+100	No	-$53	01-20 05:34
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 240 259	33	$161	1,400	900	+500	No	+$7	04-07 05:57
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 220 239	30	$159	1,585	800	+785	No	+$75	03-06 16:39
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	23	$159	811	411	+400	open	—	10-27 18:15
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	9	$158	500	500	+0	No	+$37	10-27 14:46
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	10	$144	200	200	+0	Yes	+$112	05-15 14:20
bitcoin up or down august 28 2026 6am et	10	$142	200	151	+49	Up	+$111	08-28 10:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 5AM ET	14	$140	150	150	+0	Down	+$82	09-17 09:56
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	19	$139	600	600	+0	Yes	+$50	03-20 14:07
bitcoin above 72k on april 17	14	$139	1,100	300	+800	Yes	+$53	04-17 07:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 3AM ET	27	$136	180	140	+40	Down	+$130	09-03 07:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4AM ET	18	$134	200	200	+0	Down	+$88	05-19 08:42
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 260 279	35	$132	1,934	1,600	+334	No	+$7	03-31 13:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 17:34:28	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xb13643…
10-28 15:21:55	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	12¢	$23	0x977ec9…
10-28 14:58:02	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	436	3¢	$15	0xb776fd…
10-28 14:57:16	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	3¢	$10	0x099285…
10-28 14:34:29	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	7¢	$22	0x2e8f6a…
10-28 14:17:53	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	15¢	$22	0xa33557…
10-28 14:11:25	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0xbc6458…
10-28 13:31:56	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x4cf395…
10-28 13:25:53	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xb96aa9…
10-28 13:18:17	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x669dc9…
10-28 13:15:23	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x795fec…
10-28 13:15:04	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xa602f5…
10-28 13:11:56	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	2¢	$1	0x2ab26a…
10-28 13:10:53	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0x5a6d51…
10-28 13:03:34	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	2¢	$3	0x754dd9…
10-28 13:03:34	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x6de4a9…
10-28 13:03:34	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x53f316…
10-28 12:15:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET	Up	SELL	30	11¢	$3	0x6859f4…
10-28 12:15:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET	Up	SELL	120	11¢	$13	0x7e37c9…
10-28 12:11:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	44	22¢	$10	0xbd12f6…
10-28 12:11:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	2	22¢	$0	0x0c075d…
10-28 12:10:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	2	22¢	$0	0x59b171…
10-28 12:10:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	2	22¢	$0	0x9c0ddd…
10-28 12:05:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0xd88014…
10-28 12:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xd87b38…
10-28 12:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x9a4686…
10-28 12:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	66	27¢	$18	0x6ffa0b…
10-28 12:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x665036…
10-28 12:05:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x71fff8…
10-28 12:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	3	27¢	$1	0xdc6c02…
10-28 12:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xaafacc…
10-28 12:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x1dc8f5…
10-28 11:57:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x79d4ed…
10-28 11:48:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x9cc225…
10-28 11:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	16	17¢	$3	0x69b1f3…
10-28 11:17:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	40	17¢	$7	0xff8994…
10-28 11:17:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0x569ba3…
10-28 11:17:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	14	17¢	$2	0x91da73…
10-28 10:57:49	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	3¢	$3	0x9e4873…
10-28 10:53:44	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	13¢	$7	0x491352…
10-28 10:49:52	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	13¢	$6	0x6fe471…
10-28 10:48:07	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xfd7625…
10-28 10:28:49	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	6¢	$19	0x50cbc0…
10-28 10:22:04	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0x548904…
10-28 09:49:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0x8a01b4…
10-28 09:49:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	24	27¢	$6	0x137eee…
10-28 09:15:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xb79dbb…
10-28 09:13:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x556661…
10-28 09:10:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0xa6703c…
10-28 09:10:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x856622…
10-28 08:27:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	37	4¢	$1	0x5829f5…
10-28 08:27:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x5d1734…
10-28 08:27:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0x5db7ff…
10-28 08:27:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0x464980…
10-28 08:27:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	18	4¢	$1	0x49125d…
10-28 08:26:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x7416c6…
10-28 08:26:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	54	14¢	$8	0xfa3947…
10-28 08:25:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	46	14¢	$6	0x292191…
10-28 08:23:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x505f19…
10-28 01:22:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x02d812…
10-28 01:21:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x93c337…
10-27 18:15:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	60	7¢	$4	0xf1c1aa…
10-27 18:11:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0xa6b6ae…
10-27 17:59:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	25	7¢	$2	0x3275c5…
10-27 17:34:11	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	16	7¢	$1	0x072286…
10-27 17:07:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	0	26¢	$0	0xf769ca…
10-27 17:07:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	95	26¢	$25	0x7a15b7…
10-27 17:04:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	3	26¢	$1	0x973ec0…
10-27 16:57:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	26¢	$1	0x7752b5…
10-27 14:46:38	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	69	34¢	$23	0x1f9dd1…
10-27 14:46:30	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	34¢	$10	0xda6b9b…
10-27 14:46:30	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	34¢	$0	0x1fd501…
10-27 13:56:32	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x4088c3…
10-27 03:49:29	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	29¢	$12	0x9771c4…
10-27 03:35:11	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	57	29¢	$16	0x5062f0…
10-25 18:09:23	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	0	36¢	$0	0x744b97…
10-25 17:01:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x292d23…
10-25 15:00:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	0	17¢	$0	0x57585e…
10-25 15:00:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0x8d89d5…
10-25 13:59:17	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x4767f9…
10-25 13:52:38	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0x921db1…
10-25 13:52:15	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	7¢	$1	0xd668f2…
10-25 13:52:15	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x5d42a2…
10-25 13:37:44	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xa267e8…
10-25 13:35:53	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0xdf58cf…
10-25 13:35:51	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0xc8bba4…
10-25 13:24:00	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x693342…
10-25 13:23:39	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	8¢	$7	0x2d14a9…
10-25 13:02:23	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x9f5d1e…
10-25 12:18:05	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xc70573…
10-25 11:45:51	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x6ccf61…
10-25 11:45:50	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x8124e5…
10-25 11:45:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	68	17¢	$12	0x019c79…
10-25 11:01:35	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	26	17¢	$4	0x466cfd…
10-25 10:49:38	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xd47a59…
10-25 10:49:38	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0xbb6946…
10-25 10:49:23	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x5a87cc…
10-25 10:49:18	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x98bab5…
10-25 10:48:15	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x76cf6b…
10-25 10:42:44	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x7d1f63…