Strict-Candy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$323

Unrealized P&L

+$42

Hit rate

42.7%

Resolved

Trades

379

lifetime

Volume

$42.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$111

Open exposure

$286

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-02

last 06-19 22:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

59% 100% +$32

Other

41% 0% $-355

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No		+1,000	$110	29¢	$285	+$175	06-19 00:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes		+1,033	$134	0¢	$1	$-133	06-18 14:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	4	$4.8K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	03-31 02:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	11	$4.3K	2,700	2,700	+0	open	—	05-01 11:51
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	36	$3.7K	3,826	3,826	+0	open	—	04-14 23:33
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	40	$3.3K	8,392	8,392	+0	open	—	03-27 22:32
will france strike iran by march 31	13	$2.7K	1,655	1,655	+0	open	—	03-03 19:20
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	29	$2.6K	8,271	3,336	+4,935	open	—	03-23 22:18
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	20	$2.4K	2,450	2,450	+0	open	—	04-04 17:23
israeli parliament dissolved by march 31 932	5	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-01 07:17
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-26 21:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	7	$1.0K	1,094	1,094	+0	open	—	05-27 15:49
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	20	$1.0K	913	913	+0	open	—	03-24 18:21
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	4	$927	500	500	+0	open	—	04-16 17:58
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$824	700	700	+0	open	—	04-07 22:38
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	6	$810	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-24 19:28
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	8	$740	500	500	+0	open	—	04-03 12:08
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	7	$722	500	500	+0	open	—	04-23 22:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	18	$704	1,249	536	+713	open	—	05-20 15:24
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$670	500	500	+0	open	—	04-20 17:39
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	5	$605	500	500	+0	open	—	06-19 22:50
israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	11	$600	423	423	+0	open	—	03-31 16:05
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$555	500	500	+0	open	—	04-29 17:57
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	3	$550	500	500	+0	open	—	05-23 21:44
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	23	$537	900	300	+600	open	—	04-16 05:30
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	10	$509	700	700	+0	open	—	04-16 15:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	5	$467	630	234	+396	open	—	05-22 18:22
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	3	$446	300	300	+0	open	—	04-15 21:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$390	500	500	+0	open	—	04-20 17:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	2	$319	250	246	+4	open	—	04-20 17:40
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	12	$300	300	300	+0	open	—	03-23 17:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	4	$287	300	300	+0	open	—	05-07 15:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-19 22:50:05	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	500	95¢	$475	0xf67dfb…
06-19 00:45:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,000	11¢	$110	0xebf34c…
06-19 00:41:08	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	496	26¢	$129	0x68e4d0…
06-19 00:40:50	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x26d9e0…
06-19 00:40:49	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xdf7e1a…
06-19 00:40:49	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x2df94b…
06-18 14:16:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,000	13¢	$130	0x87402e…
06-18 14:11:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	26	12¢	$3	0xaeb026…
06-18 14:10:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0x40ab6f…
05-27 15:49:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	500	61¢	$303	0xc58437…
05-27 12:37:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	500	38¢	$190	0x7b5ddc…
05-26 12:10:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	350	69¢	$241	0x346c38…
05-25 17:01:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x6a5c68…
05-24 17:44:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	250	53¢	$132	0xdfb417…
05-23 21:44:21	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	SELL	500	62¢	$310	0xc9e245…
05-23 21:02:39	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	BUY	137	48¢	$66	0x3892b3…
05-23 21:02:30	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	BUY	363	48¢	$174	0x924a47…
05-22 18:22:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	396	48¢	$190	0x6d81d8…
05-20 15:24:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x5fdae5…
05-20 15:00:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0x09b0f7…
05-20 15:00:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x1daf83…
05-20 15:00:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x1ba6d8…
05-20 14:59:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	189	46¢	$87	0xababcb…
05-18 15:15:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0x4514db…
05-18 15:09:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	113	56¢	$63	0x815041…
05-18 11:53:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	34	66¢	$22	0xe40838…
05-18 11:41:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	200	66¢	$132	0xa9934d…
05-17 23:29:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	SELL	106	47¢	$50	0xcb8d5c…
05-17 23:28:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0x53c1ab…
05-17 23:20:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0xb2edd9…
05-17 23:15:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	SELL	50	47¢	$24	0xde9dfb…
05-17 23:12:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	SELL	380	47¢	$179	0x59abce…
05-17 16:57:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x4faf28…
05-17 16:52:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x80006d…
05-17 16:52:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xb2f1d7…
05-17 16:51:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x72a68b…
05-14 23:32:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	134	44¢	$59	0x5e6155…
05-14 19:02:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	400	18¢	$71	0xac1e9a…
05-14 19:01:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	4	17¢	$1	0x231483…
05-14 19:00:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x5ba115…
05-07 15:22:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	300	48¢	$144	0x0e4390…
05-07 15:22:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	244	23¢	$56	0x08ed4b…
05-07 14:29:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	244	23¢	$56	0x76af9a…
05-07 14:29:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	16	48¢	$8	0x43412d…
05-07 14:27:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	200	48¢	$96	0xb72da3…
05-07 14:25:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	84	47¢	$40	0x561059…
05-05 23:59:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	108	33¢	$35	0xb6e8b5…
05-05 23:58:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	500	18¢	$90	0x96ff07…
05-05 02:41:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	50	41¢	$21	0x928ad4…
05-05 02:26:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	4	41¢	$1	0x95289e…
05-05 02:16:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x6a3e77…
05-05 02:10:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xa0fc33…
05-05 02:06:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	86	41¢	$35	0xc2235b…
05-05 00:09:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?	No	BUY	92	6¢	$6	0xe0a889…
05-05 00:08:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?	No	BUY	208	6¢	$12	0xcf89b5…
05-05 00:04:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	200	74¢	$148	0x7e7127…
05-04 16:33:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	473	30¢	$142	0x584ea3…
05-04 16:31:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	200	58¢	$116	0xd6b435…
05-04 16:27:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x5b4705…
05-04 16:25:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	14	30¢	$4	0xe3087f…
05-04 16:25:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xdc72ef…
05-04 16:25:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xab93e3…
05-01 11:51:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$998	0xac0ee4…
04-30 12:17:50	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x6ba7cc…
04-30 06:52:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	61¢	$22	0x1fe6c6…
04-29 18:26:54	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0xc92394…
04-29 17:57:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	56¢	$280	0xef9c27…
04-29 14:11:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	55¢	$275	0xcd9627…
04-29 12:11:42	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0x196139…
04-28 17:22:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	No	SELL	200	68¢	$137	0xfafd8e…
04-28 13:36:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	No	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0xdaf7c0…
04-28 13:34:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	No	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0xfb5114…
04-23 22:40:12	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	SELL	500	69¢	$345	0xaded4f…
04-23 21:38:30	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	19	73¢	$14	0x4ccb6a…
04-23 21:38:16	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0x453ee0…
04-23 21:38:14	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	74	73¢	$54	0xaa9594…
04-23 21:38:12	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xa563e9…
04-23 21:38:00	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x5abc78…
04-23 21:33:24	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	300	77¢	$231	0x3994f7…
04-22 14:11:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	1,000	91¢	$910	0xe77932…
04-20 17:40:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	500	31¢	$155	0x88fdad…
04-20 17:40:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	No	SELL	246	73¢	$179	0xb52b4c…
04-20 17:39:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	500	79¢	$395	0x6cfec6…
04-20 17:39:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	1,100	71¢	$781	0xf587ec…
04-20 14:41:38	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0x9296cf…
04-20 14:17:32	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	SELL	170	64¢	$109	0x75d70d…
04-20 13:47:56	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	170	55¢	$94	0x3b15d7…
04-20 13:26:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	300	71¢	$213	0xbad5fb…
04-20 12:46:12	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x1eb86e…
04-20 12:45:44	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x0e0cd0…
04-20 11:36:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x9a063b…
04-20 08:52:52	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x7e2e3c…
04-20 08:46:20	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x94ebed…
04-20 08:22:34	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x43d667…
04-20 08:18:30	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	29	72¢	$21	0xd9a030…
04-20 07:39:28	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x4fd5e7…
04-20 07:27:22	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x7ef502…
04-20 06:42:56	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$3	0x5c9fc5…
04-20 06:11:50	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x70e9ba…
04-20 06:01:52	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	29	72¢	$21	0x4f644a…