Courteous-Stepfather — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.94K

Unrealized P&L

+$51

Hit rate

76.1%

Resolved

156

Trades

428

lifetime

Volume

$32.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$76

Open exposure

$1.45K

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 12:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 63 days

Categories

Other

79% 78% -$1,428

Tech

14% 74% -$217

Politics

5% 75% -$310

Sports

1% 67% -$15

Crypto

1% 100% +$32

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	+520	$368	96¢	$497	+$128	10-15 05:36
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797	Yes	+300	$241	96¢	$286	+$46	08-19 00:55
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	Yes	+300	$243	86¢	$258	+$15	08-18 07:41
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+450	$273	38¢	$173	-$100	09-01 09:20
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+170	$153	92¢	$157	+$4	09-02 10:06
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	+200	$124	42¢	$83	-$41	09-01 09:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?	1	$1.9K	0	1,946	-1,946	No	-$49	05-11 15:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	1	$1000	1,002	0	+1,002	No	+$2	06-14 08:51
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	10	$870	905	0	+905	No	+$35	07-17 08:07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$715	850	500	+350	No	-$215	09-04 11:34
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?	1	$678	700	0	+700	No	+$22	06-03 10:24
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	3	$588	300	300	+0	No	+$12	08-30 07:39
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	2	$586	613	0	+613	Yes	+$27	06-03 10:23
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	4	$523	374	374	+0	open	—	10-26 12:20
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	6	$520	680	160	+520	No	-$328	07-17 10:01
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	8	$509	563	0	+563	No	+$54	07-10 11:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	6	$482	500	0	+500	No	+$18	06-27 00:01
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	3	$475	500	0	+500	Yes	+$25	05-17 01:49
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$470	500	0	+500	No	+$30	05-16 11:32
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	8	$441	513	0	+513	No	+$72	01-31 05:31
will threads be 2 free app in the us apple app store on january 9	9	$425	356	219	+137	No	-$70	01-05 07:40
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	7	$414	450	0	+450	Yes	+$36	06-26 04:58
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	3	$400	422	0	+422	No	+$22	01-17 14:03
will threads be 2 free app in the us apple app store on january 2	2	$400	403	0	+403	No	+$3	01-02 04:32
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?	3	$396	200	200	+0	No	+$4	06-22 13:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$386	400	0	+400	No	+$14	05-16 11:26
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	5	$384	420	0	+420	Yes	+$36	05-25 11:25
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.20T on July 31?	7	$383	200	200	+0	No	+$15	07-18 12:32
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	11	$371	400	0	+400	No	+$29	08-07 12:36
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	2	$370	193	193	+0	No	+$10	01-20 06:05
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	10	$368	520	0	+520	open	—	10-15 05:36
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	2	$366	400	300	+100	No	-$42	07-05 06:04
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	3	$346	352	352	+0	Yes	-$330	02-26 11:40
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	3	$322	180	180	+0	No	+$27	09-13 17:26
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	5	$320	382	0	+382	Yes	-$320	01-24 02:11
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?	3	$319	330	0	+330	Yes	+$11	06-22 12:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 12:20:48	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	374	62¢	$232	0x4a8079…
10-15 08:22:19	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x7d34d2…
10-15 05:36:37	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	72¢	$86	0xa477f5…
09-21 05:37:25	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	160	95¢	$152	0xe21da5…
09-18 20:50:15	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.625T by September 30?	Yes	SELL	145	24¢	$35	0x24154d…
09-13 17:26:30	Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	130	97¢	$126	0xf61e44…
09-13 11:45:40	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.425T by September 30?	Yes	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0x6f6f52…
09-13 09:06:33	Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0xc19db0…
09-13 08:17:13	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.425T by September 30?	Yes	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0x51fc93…
09-09 23:57:36	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x38f7b9…
09-08 12:48:03	Gemini 4.0 released by September 15, 2026?	No	SELL	120	98¢	$118	0x943274…
09-05 08:48:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	300	2¢	$6	0xa2d0d8…
09-05 01:45:54	Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	180	82¢	$148	0xa55a58…
09-04 19:34:22	Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xda7955…
09-04 16:06:49	Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xf659d2…
09-04 16:06:49	Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	54	99¢	$53	0xc04997…
09-04 16:06:49	Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x81237b…
09-04 16:06:49	Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x3311ff…
09-04 16:06:49	Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x2911fc…
09-04 16:06:49	Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x289c2e…
09-04 11:34:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	350	60¢	$210	0x7cf0ab…
09-04 08:31:03	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.625T by September 30?	Yes	BUY	187	20¢	$37	0x43f349…
09-04 03:58:09	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.625T by September 30?	Yes	BUY	102	18¢	$18	0xdc0098…
09-04 03:47:49	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	245	79¢	$194	0x8a9fbc…
09-03 10:15:19	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	65	82¢	$53	0x97ba69…
09-02 14:59:13	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x0b14f3…
09-02 10:07:15	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x09e752…
09-02 10:06:28	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	170	90¢	$153	0xbe6c5b…
09-02 04:59:13	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	62	76¢	$47	0xc08323…
09-01 20:09:00	Gemini 4.0 released by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x080f1b…
09-01 10:32:25	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	52	67¢	$35	0x887251…
09-01 10:07:57	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	67	76¢	$51	0xe400c8…
09-01 09:32:46	Gemini 4.0 released by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0x9a78d9…
09-01 09:32:39	Gemini 4.0 released by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	18	92¢	$17	0xb151a8…
09-01 09:31:48	Gemini 4.0 released by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	18	92¢	$17	0x0487a3…
09-01 09:31:40	Gemini 4.0 released by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	18	92¢	$17	0x00a866…
09-01 09:31:33	Gemini 4.0 released by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	18	92¢	$17	0xefc5b2…
09-01 09:27:37	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0xbd7467…
09-01 09:23:39	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x757c7f…
09-01 09:20:58	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	63¢	$251	0xbecac3…
09-01 09:14:21	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	78	67¢	$52	0x0a035d…
09-01 08:57:58	Gemini 4.0 released by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	19	92¢	$17	0xdd708f…
09-01 08:51:28	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	82¢	$6	0x580962…
09-01 08:50:21	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	163	86¢	$140	0xf71177…
09-01 08:50:21	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	37	86¢	$32	0x03de2c…
08-30 07:39:24	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0x76eaab…
08-29 01:12:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	500	50¢	$250	0x74bdd0…
08-19 13:01:48	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0xe15226…
08-19 07:25:21	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	BUY	195	89¢	$174	0x658851…
08-19 00:57:39	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x4ea338…
08-19 00:55:55	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xd2f28e…
08-18 07:41:16	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	Yes	BUY	239	81¢	$194	0xc547c1…
08-18 03:54:07	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	Yes	BUY	61	81¢	$49	0x92b4aa…
08-13 16:04:48	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	53	81¢	$43	0xa33074…
08-13 14:22:16	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x36389b…
08-13 14:00:12	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x0b1dd6…
08-13 14:00:10	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xf9ca56…
08-13 14:00:09	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0xa1d84c…
08-13 14:00:03	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0xa9f3e4…
08-13 08:26:48	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	9	81¢	$7	0x83f47e…
08-13 07:40:34	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0xec5eb1…
08-13 01:14:25	Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$40	0xe7862a…
08-12 06:38:28	Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc61791…
08-11 09:57:45	Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	92¢	$71	0x7a5a03…
08-11 01:03:48	Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	149	89¢	$133	0x7dc1d0…
08-07 12:36:51	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0xcae985…
08-07 11:31:39	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0x30e165…
08-07 11:30:16	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xfb7a92…
08-07 11:29:27	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0x986042…
08-05 10:10:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	51¢	$255	0x7491b2…
08-05 04:19:30	Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	94¢	$23	0x7f7e4b…
08-05 01:29:29	Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	94¢	$71	0xcb765f…
08-04 20:20:32	will spacex say tesla during earnings call 20260730164309242	No	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x834419…
08-04 10:06:30	will spacex say tesla during earnings call 20260730164309242	No	BUY	31	35¢	$11	0x8c57dc…
08-04 09:41:33	Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x1f18b8…
08-04 09:38:15	will openais valuation hit high 1pt0t by august 31 20260730182737235	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0xcfb907…
08-04 08:55:20	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	300	67¢	$201	0xa6f1f6…
08-04 08:49:54	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	18	97¢	$18	0x5c0d6c…
08-04 08:47:32	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x0d907e…
08-04 08:47:23	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x10e364…
08-04 08:46:32	will spacex say tesla during earnings call 20260730164309242	No	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x3c088a…
08-04 08:45:35	will openais valuation hit high 1pt0t by august 31 20260730182737235	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x6428b6…
08-04 08:42:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x060954…
08-04 08:41:42	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xfbdee4…
08-03 03:44:33	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	37	92¢	$34	0x36063c…
08-03 03:33:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	200	98¢	$195	0xe5dd8a…
08-03 03:31:39	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	63	92¢	$58	0xb80a08…
08-01 05:49:24	Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	234	93¢	$217	0x1cd9f0…
08-01 05:13:54	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	80	85¢	$68	0x6944b5…
08-01 05:13:53	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xdc9dfc…
08-01 05:13:03	Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	66	93¢	$61	0x01f380…
08-01 05:12:06	Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	144	96¢	$138	0xfc2ca7…
08-01 05:11:53	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xf7a170…
07-19 01:27:39	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0xd7ac12…
07-18 12:32:58	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.20T on July 31?	No	SELL	110	99¢	$109	0xd75fe4…
07-17 13:08:27	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.20T on July 31?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xf9aeb0…
07-17 13:08:27	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.20T on July 31?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xaf6e93…
07-17 13:08:27	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.20T on July 31?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x80a971…
07-17 10:01:55	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	190	52¢	$99	0x1397d1…
07-17 09:55:39	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0x5cefc4…