Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

56.6%

Resolved

122

Trades

132

lifetime

Volume

$211

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-07-20

last 11-03 09:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 65 days

Categories

Other

85% 56% -$3

Politics

11% 67% +$6

Tech

3% 50% +$0

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes		+1	$1	84¢	$1	+$0	11-01 05:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-19 08:02
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	09-10 15:22
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$2	09-08 18:00
will trump say golf or golfer during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556644	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$2	07-26 12:17
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 7 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	09-07 17:17
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	09-10 23:22
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-15 00:42
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-20 16:26
grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	08-11 07:06
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	09-16 03:38
will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-11 15:10
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-08 09:41
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	09-09 05:56
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	09-16 23:38
Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or more in August?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-09 13:56
google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by september 4 2026	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	08-30 01:01
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	09-17 18:26
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	09-14 18:40
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	+$6	08-29 16:59
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	09-09 22:05
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	09-20 04:52
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	09-23 10:44
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	+$0	08-20 22:54
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	09-10 07:21
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-11 23:01
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 18?	1	$2	3	+3	Down	-$2	09-18 15:16
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	08-26 16:10
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on August 31, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	08-23 14:29
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	1	$2	4	+4	cancelled	$0	07-26 00:16
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-15 08:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 09:26:57	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x611b36…
11-03 01:26:40	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x791e08…
11-02 05:26:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xc76ac2…
11-01 21:26:25	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x9218af…
11-01 05:17:01	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x025105…
10-23 21:21:09	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x8a5d32…
10-23 00:59:50	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 global unit case volume growth <3.5%?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x6d6ea3…
10-22 16:59:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x339527…
10-22 08:59:20	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x39e486…
10-22 00:39:47	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xfed50a…
10-21 03:59:17	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x208663…
10-20 19:58:35	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $174 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xb9e775…
10-18 23:53:35	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x84d386…
10-18 15:53:29	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xfa0389…
10-18 07:52:53	Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Q3 comparable sales growth 6% to 8%?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x2329a0…
10-17 23:52:35	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x67b3fa…
10-17 15:51:26	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x976631…
10-17 05:04:04	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xd72f50…
10-16 18:41:42	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xe9af9f…
10-16 08:45:30	will rklb reach 58 by october 12 2026	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x20c098…
10-16 00:45:18	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x8af636…
10-15 16:42:04	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15?	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x2eba84…
10-15 08:33:31	spy up or down on october 15 2026	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x6b2da9…
10-15 00:00:10	will the tesla roadster fly for 1s	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x62fb33…
10-14 15:58:06	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x78f9ed…
10-10 19:18:27	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x900b71…
10-10 08:20:39	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x39a3ba…
10-09 23:25:02	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xf1cdd4…
10-09 01:32:20	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x8cf8da…
10-08 17:32:05	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x3dfe22…
10-08 06:26:37	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $70 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xdaef6c…
10-07 22:25:45	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xac2798…
10-07 14:25:29	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x6b3460…
10-07 06:07:36	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xd00e0d…
10-04 17:41:58	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x716164…
10-02 05:39:14	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xe8b998…
09-30 18:45:51	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xba3523…
09-30 18:29:12	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xda2788…
09-30 10:27:59	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x6b81ef…
09-30 02:27:42	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xb960ac…
09-26 05:46:29	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x2a80a2…
09-25 21:04:36	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x09e13d…
09-24 19:07:41	Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x085b08…
09-23 10:44:40	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x93c73e…
09-23 02:12:26	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x585ba0…
09-20 16:26:06	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x1c4e14…
09-20 04:52:45	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x145696…
09-19 08:02:04	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x5b1a74…
09-19 00:01:37	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xe8f33b…
09-18 15:16:18	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 18?	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x3b45c4…
09-17 18:26:37	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xeb4962…
09-17 07:38:46	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x4a5585…
09-16 23:38:25	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x4c634c…
09-16 03:38:06	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x3534c4…
09-15 03:36:12	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x4e0916…
09-14 18:40:39	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x57088f…
09-12 08:14:48	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x65e70b…
09-11 23:01:34	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x282857…
09-10 23:22:25	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August?	No	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xca14b7…
09-10 15:22:18	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xfa0ac0…
09-10 07:21:28	Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?	No	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x4f6491…
09-09 22:05:52	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xb8ad41…
09-09 13:56:52	Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or more in August?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x3cdbbb…
09-09 05:56:04	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xcceade…
09-08 18:00:18	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x5b60b8…
09-08 09:41:51	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xe5e391…
09-08 05:00:06	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of September 7 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x889d9c…
09-07 17:17:39	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 7 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x8f1c8f…
09-07 16:59:07	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x173391…
09-07 07:13:07	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x80772e…
09-03 21:46:09	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xa38e4c…
09-02 06:28:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x902467…
09-01 22:04:00	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x2db035…
09-01 13:50:27	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x5defc9…
09-01 05:40:04	will mu dip to 900 by august 31 2026	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x7b3d5c…
08-30 09:29:19	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xf46fbd…
08-30 01:01:46	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by september 4 2026	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x9b1260…
08-29 16:59:43	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x19df86…
08-29 08:57:21	next mythos class model released by september 1 2026	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xa07f18…
08-27 08:25:25	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.50T and $1.75T at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x441398…
08-27 00:23:36	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x6f0ad9…
08-26 16:10:12	Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x361445…
08-26 08:09:52	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xefd267…
08-24 20:30:49	Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x01af94…
08-23 23:39:28	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?	No	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xc20efe…
08-23 14:29:45	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xcb4f57…
08-23 05:53:07	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xf897cf…
08-22 21:52:09	Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x7fc5c3…
08-22 20:03:19	Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x8a8c34…
08-22 11:15:45	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xcd8cc9…
08-22 00:11:30	Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xa74b6d…
08-21 15:19:54	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xaccbe9…
08-21 06:58:33	Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x8c3cfa…
08-20 22:54:45	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x108b3a…
08-20 14:29:57	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xf30213…
08-19 04:39:03	spy up or down on august 19 2026	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x1cf0a1…
08-18 07:44:19	will pltr dip to 168 by august 17 2026	No	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xd18e7f…
08-17 23:40:13	spy closes above 775 on august 18 2026	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xbe50e5…
08-16 02:05:48	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x404cb6…
08-15 17:48:01	Walmart (WMT) Q2 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 3%-4.5%?	No	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x99345f…