Disastrous-Familiar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

33.6%

Resolved

Trades

329

lifetime

Volume

$328

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-05

last 07-04 07:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

37% 0% $-0

Politics

30% — —

Crypto

25% 67% +$0

Tech

4% — —

Sports

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No		-1	$-1	86¢	$-1	$-0	06-15 07:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	9	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	02-05 08:39
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	7	$7	3	4	-1	open	—	01-14 03:12
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	01-26 10:12
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-20 07:17
will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-27 07:57
Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-15 06:20
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-12 06:58
nothing ever happens microstrategy	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-20 07:28
over 20m committed to the ranger public sale 942	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-07 09:36
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-04 06:32
bitcoin above 68k on march 14	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-14 06:10
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	04-03 06:37
Over $500k committed to the Pharos public sale?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-25 06:11
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-03 06:39
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-18 08:15
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-27 09:32
will arirang bts be the billboard 200 1 album for the week of april 4	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-28 07:49
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-23 04:15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-28 03:37
will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-10 03:35
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-27 03:54
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-24 08:58
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-11 08:26
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-29 06:51
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-07 00:58
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	07-04 07:28
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-27 08:22
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-05 06:32
will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 20	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-20 08:36
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-18 06:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 07:28:17	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb0d38d…
07-04 07:13:04	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd5af3a…
07-03 09:22:17	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xf3893a…
07-03 09:11:19	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x97dfa7…
07-03 09:05:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xa66ff6…
07-03 08:57:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xf22f39…
07-01 06:52:23	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xbcf808…
07-01 06:50:11	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x524b0e…
07-01 06:36:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa13e09…
07-01 06:30:46	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x16fd04…
06-30 07:10:38	will ethereum dip to 1500 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x6b7a0c…
06-30 06:58:40	will ethereum dip to 1500 in june 2026	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x2d4dbb…
06-29 08:03:04	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x0ab47d…
06-29 07:52:08	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x74189b…
06-27 07:57:17	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xc55491…
06-27 07:55:37	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x5882d9…
06-27 07:46:53	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xadc9fe…
06-27 07:32:44	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x11e6e1…
06-26 08:41:07	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x99e58f…
06-26 08:39:31	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x6db2ef…
06-26 08:28:05	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa2bea8…
06-26 08:23:34	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x1a8dda…
06-25 07:27:17	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt3t by june 30	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x091fe9…
06-25 07:25:59	will trump speak to pope leo xiv in june	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xfaa21f…
06-25 07:15:26	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt3t by june 30	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x739861…
06-25 07:10:37	will trump speak to pope leo xiv in june	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x21a44b…
06-24 08:58:52	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x88f1cc…
06-24 08:26:14	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf0e7bc…
06-22 07:42:37	Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xe0fd15…
06-22 07:40:55	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x65ec9b…
06-22 07:26:11	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xde88b6…
06-22 07:20:19	Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x723dbe…
06-21 07:37:35	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x72ab4f…
06-21 07:36:44	will bitcoin dip to 62k june 15 21 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x2d1526…
06-21 07:23:08	will bitcoin dip to 62k june 15 21 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa4164b…
06-21 07:19:40	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x0f888b…
06-18 07:50:56	Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x3389d2…
06-18 07:35:53	Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x8f51bc…
06-17 07:32:35	will ethereum dip to 1400 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x8a5df0…
06-17 07:29:59	will jd vance attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204739	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x1931db…
06-17 07:18:14	will ethereum dip to 1400 in june 2026	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x048be6…
06-17 07:10:04	will jd vance attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204739	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x2ecad5…
06-16 07:49:24	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xcb3ab2…
06-16 07:48:12	will bitcoin reach 80k in june 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x3cad76…
06-16 07:28:55	will bitcoin reach 80k in june 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa303ae…
06-16 07:24:24	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x8010f4…
06-15 07:00:42	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xb3a8f0…
06-13 08:33:34	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x0ca796…
06-13 08:17:15	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x2ee642…
06-12 08:09:45	will base launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x5af1c2…
06-12 07:52:24	will base launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x189752…
06-11 08:26:49	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xb3eaef…
06-11 08:23:04	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x8a8b25…
06-11 08:16:13	will bulk launch a token by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x87b543…
06-11 08:14:19	tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0xd632bb…
06-11 08:13:39	tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	No	SELL	1	50¢	$0	0x873bff…
06-09 03:31:06	Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x6709e9…
06-09 03:26:46	Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7890ff…
06-08 03:14:54	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by december 31	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xe94d03…
06-08 03:09:12	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by december 31	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x750529…
06-06 07:48:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x75621d…
06-06 07:26:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x73b500…
06-05 06:32:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x661342…
06-05 06:31:10	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x7bd765…
06-05 06:23:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xdb8e46…
06-05 06:19:15	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x5ddfab…
06-04 07:22:51	israeli forces enter choukine by june 7	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x553d06…
06-04 07:03:12	israeli forces enter choukine by june 7	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x8cdd60…
06-03 07:28:10	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xa7fa24…
06-03 07:25:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x92b869…
06-03 06:52:50	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x469d68…
06-03 06:28:55	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2a7a3a…
06-02 06:16:11	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xd8ce40…
06-02 04:37:56	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xf1e43b…
06-02 04:35:11	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xc2cd36…
05-30 07:09:03	Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb9d75f…
05-29 04:55:50	Will Meta acquire TikTok?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x88dd5b…
05-29 04:53:00	Trump on $250 bill this year?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xfb6e18…
05-28 07:15:05	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xb977f5…
05-28 07:14:12	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x9aea8b…
05-28 07:02:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xd96154…
05-28 06:58:03	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xbafad5…
05-27 08:22:12	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x47b0c9…
05-27 07:29:13	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x5fb23f…
05-25 06:23:36	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa8238a…
05-25 06:06:09	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x29ea24…
05-22 07:50:47	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa37e76…
05-22 07:38:25	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x10426c…
05-22 07:25:56	Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x69fdcc…
05-21 07:49:31	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe66a88…
05-21 07:40:32	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xacd081…
05-20 07:17:44	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xac7e15…
05-20 06:59:43	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8532d9…
05-19 06:07:12	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xe043b3…
05-19 04:46:22	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xad40c2…
05-18 08:15:38	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x76a713…
05-18 08:06:26	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x889c2d…
05-16 06:46:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xde11fb…
05-16 06:41:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x954ab0…
05-15 06:20:27	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x6bd6e0…