Discrete-Notebook — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$746

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.2%

Resolved (90d)

698

Trades (90d)

1,104

11,203 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$31.6K

$315.1K lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-30

last 10-28 18:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 228 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 39% -$8,405

Other

11% 42% +$312

Sports

0% 38% +$165

Politics

0% 25% -$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ucl bay1 ata1 2026 03 18 bay1	2	$1.5K	887	887	+0	Yes	+$253	03-18 21:18
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-15 23:00 UTC	3	$1.3K	775	726	+49	Up	+$19	03-15 23:06
lal bar ray 2026 03 22 bar	2	$1.3K	712	712	+0	Yes	+$87	03-22 14:58
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 11:45 UTC	3	$1.2K	708	708	+0	Down	+$202	02-02 11:59
ucl fcb1 new 2026 03 18 fcb1	2	$1.1K	631	631	+0	Yes	+$137	03-18 19:17
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-19?	2	$932	535	535	+0	Yes	+$118	09-19 20:33
lal bar sev 2026 03 15 bar	3	$883	479	479	+0	Yes	+$73	03-15 16:33
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-17 01:00 UTC	5	$851	942	504	+438	Up	-$263	03-17 01:08
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 00:00 UTC	10	$823	1,046	1,034	+12	Up	+$106	02-09 00:14
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 15:15 UTC	7	$775	1,378	1,058	+319	Up	+$120	02-07 15:29
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 21:00 UTC	5	$746	851	803	+48	Down	+$121	02-06 21:11
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 21:30 UTC	4	$738	828	821	+7	Down	+$345	02-04 21:45
France to score first vs. Sweden?	2	$717	418	418	+0	Yes	+$117	06-30 21:46
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score	2	$681	385	385	+0	Yes	+$81	05-19 20:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	3	$679	654	585	+69	Down	+$239	05-21 16:37
ere nec sit 2026 02 28 sit	4	$673	433	433	+0	Yes	+$56	02-28 22:01
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 13:15 UTC	9	$671	768	760	+8	Up	+$237	02-06 13:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 17:50 UTC	4	$667	1,043	1,043	+0	Up	+$59	08-17 17:51
Morocco to score first vs. Canada?	2	$646	397	397	+0	Yes	+$146	07-04 18:22
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-18 18:30 UTC	7	$640	758	747	+11	Down	+$47	02-18 18:39
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	2	$629	430	430	+0	Argentina	+$229	07-15 21:04
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 18:45 UTC	9	$625	748	580	+168	Up	+$60	03-04 18:50
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 14:30 UTC	2	$623	325	324	+0	Down	+$19	03-06 14:44
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-06 14:30 UTC	5	$622	397	319	+77	Down	-$15	03-06 14:37
ere fey tel 2026 02 22 fey	3	$622	350	350	+0	Yes	+$78	02-22 20:56
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 14:30 UTC	6	$617	374	372	+2	Up	+$19	02-08 14:39
lal rea ala 2026 04 21 rea	3	$614	342	340	+2	Yes	+$55	04-21 20:57
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-18 17:15 UTC	8	$605	564	513	+51	Down	+$152	02-18 17:28
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 22:15 UTC	3	$599	566	565	+1	Up	+$497	02-05 22:29
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 goals lionel messi gte1	2	$598	349	349	+0	Yes	+$98	07-03 22:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 18:30:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	65	17¢	$11	0xc1e5b5…
10-25 21:32:09	Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	133	33¢	$44	0x928004…
10-25 21:05:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x0de3a7…
10-25 20:06:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	143	23¢	$33	0x66bac8…
10-25 20:02:18	Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0x4147ac…
10-25 11:40:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	58	19¢	$11	0x0d9d89…
10-25 11:28:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	58	19¢	$11	0x09c97e…
10-25 11:27:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	SELL	67	63¢	$43	0x1c76ce…
10-25 11:25:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	67	49¢	$33	0xca5f18…
10-25 11:24:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	SELL	33	80¢	$27	0x4cbc22…
10-25 11:20:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	33	33¢	$11	0x4c5f55…
10-25 11:15:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x42249b…
10-25 11:00:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x44e416…
10-25 10:57:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	160	89¢	$142	0x48b557…
10-25 10:56:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	160	62¢	$99	0xc59847…
10-25 10:50:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	33	33¢	$11	0x9d9f8e…
10-25 09:55:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	220	39¢	$86	0xf2506a…
10-25 09:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	65	17¢	$11	0x49fb09…
10-25 09:27:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x1caac6…
10-25 09:03:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-25 09:00 UTC	Up	SELL	48	63¢	$30	0xc57f3f…
10-25 09:03:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-25 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	48	23¢	$11	0x53fe67…
10-24 22:35:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xf07c35…
10-24 18:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x4ad84c…
10-24 18:16:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x0ed934…
10-24 16:05:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	119	76¢	$90	0xa992f8…
10-24 16:04:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	119	53¢	$63	0xbcd6b1…
10-24 15:52:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	SELL	32	13¢	$4	0xee95a8…
10-24 15:51:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	32	34¢	$11	0xa83e4f…
10-23 23:39:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	48	23¢	$11	0x93d608…
10-23 23:10:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	69	16¢	$11	0xb9e39d…
10-20 21:31:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	79	14¢	$11	0x58c72e…
10-20 20:21:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	SELL	80	59¢	$47	0xd16324…
10-20 20:20:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	80	41¢	$33	0x05950f…
10-20 20:17:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	69	16¢	$11	0x051558…
10-04 11:12:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 11:00 UTC	Up	BUY	126	47¢	$59	0xa52ed8…
10-04 11:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	SELL	174	1¢	$2	0x94bb17…
10-04 11:05:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 11:05 UTC	Down	BUY	174	19¢	$33	0x9b1da9…
10-04 11:01:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 11:00 UTC	Up	BUY	52	21¢	$11	0xc52c63…
10-04 10:35:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 10:35 UTC	Up	BUY	61	18¢	$11	0x6010dc…
10-03 23:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	SELL	79	5¢	$4	0x153bbd…
10-03 23:51:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	79	14¢	$11	0xdf2612…
10-03 22:35:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 22:35 UTC	Down	BUY	44	25¢	$11	0x63692d…
10-03 22:33:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 22:30 UTC	Up	BUY	35	31¢	$11	0x735cb3…
10-03 22:16:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 22:15 UTC	Up	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x31899c…
10-03 21:59:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 21:55 UTC	Down	SELL	39	99¢	$38	0xc09db2…
10-03 21:58:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 21:55 UTC	Down	BUY	39	85¢	$33	0x688686…
10-03 21:33:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	61	18¢	$11	0xe49e60…
10-03 18:55:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 18:55 UTC	Down	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xbb7d4b…
10-03 18:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xb7347b…
10-03 18:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xbb5501…
10-03 18:32:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xf44e37…
10-03 18:31:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x64a2bb…
10-03 14:44:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 14:40 UTC	Up	SELL	39	8¢	$3	0xd99a44…
10-03 14:41:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 14:40 UTC	Up	BUY	39	28¢	$11	0xffa8b4…
10-03 14:28:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	65	91¢	$59	0xe9b64a…
10-03 13:46:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	44	25¢	$11	0x25c008…
10-03 12:31:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	SELL	96	65¢	$62	0xda4083…
10-03 12:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	96	60¢	$57	0x0dc6d7…
10-03 12:16:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 12:15 UTC	Down	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x5d9fd2…
10-03 11:33:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xe3fa69…
10-03 11:05:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 11:05 UTC	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xd2f154…
10-03 11:02:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 11:00 UTC	Up	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xb81b3e…
10-03 04:07:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x503610…
10-03 04:02:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	79	14¢	$11	0xdd73e3…
10-03 00:48:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	65	17¢	$11	0xef1d83…
10-02 23:55:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	42	26¢	$11	0x79b5c7…
10-02 23:36:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	SELL	52	52¢	$27	0xaee9a5…
10-02 23:36:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	52	21¢	$11	0x8261bc…
10-02 23:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	SELL	34	1¢	$0	0x81c981…
10-02 23:25:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	34	32¢	$11	0xf49368…
10-02 23:24:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	SELL	40	99¢	$39	0xd91da1…
10-02 23:23:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0x1c1ce5…
10-02 23:14:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	60	1¢	$1	0xca9bb4…
10-02 23:12:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	60	18¢	$11	0x1dab1a…
10-02 22:47:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	220	15¢	$33	0x057a79…
10-02 22:41:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	70	10¢	$7	0xb7eee6…
10-02 21:52:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	70	10¢	$7	0x42dc15…
10-02 21:13:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	306	50¢	$154	0x387ecf…
10-02 21:10:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	306	26¢	$79	0xb3237d…
10-02 21:01:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	35	20¢	$7	0x37b4b7…
10-02 20:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	37	90¢	$33	0x58d3bc…
10-02 20:55:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	37	19¢	$7	0x82be36…
10-02 20:31:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	33	21¢	$7	0x26cf72…
10-02 20:13:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	35	58¢	$20	0x2a009c…
10-02 20:12:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	35	20¢	$7	0xbc774c…
10-02 19:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd94ef4…
10-02 19:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	SELL	122	68¢	$83	0xaa507c…
10-02 19:01:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	122	36¢	$44	0xcb3ad1…
10-02 18:57:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x6d720a…
10-02 18:55:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	158	60¢	$95	0xa8f26e…
10-02 18:38:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	54	13¢	$7	0x5a15ca…
10-02 18:30:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	28	25¢	$7	0x6a8e68…
10-02 03:42:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	29	24¢	$7	0xb62160…
10-02 02:21:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	SELL	30	40¢	$12	0xa49394…
10-02 02:20:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	30	23¢	$7	0x64275c…
10-02 02:03:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	37	19¢	$7	0xe84575…
10-02 00:51:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	30	23¢	$7	0xdb6361…
10-02 00:45:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x02b054…
10-02 00:22:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	78	9¢	$7	0x7a9f04…
10-01 23:50:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	37	19¢	$7	0x39f421…