Lone-Orchestra — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$158

Unrealized P&L

-$214

Hit rate

23.1%

Resolved

1,346

Trades

2,756

lifetime

Volume

$29.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$933

29 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 10-28 06:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 185 days

Categories

Other

87% 13% -$796

Sports

8% 22% +$277

Crypto

5% 30% +$360

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 85 trades/day

Open positions (29) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?	No	+1,712	$278	14¢	$231	-$47	10-27 13:09
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	+670	$105	15¢	$101	-$4	10-26 22:47
Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	+571	$94	16¢	$94	$0	10-26 22:50
Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?	Yes	+725	$107	11¢	$76	-$31	10-26 19:01
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+700	$31	7¢	$50	+$19	09-24 15:38
Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?	Yes	+261	$47	18¢	$46	-$1	10-19 02:33
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+178	$36	22¢	$40	+$4	09-21 18:14
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	+235	$52	16¢	$39	-$13	10-27 12:09
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+235	$35	16¢	$39	+$4	08-07 04:16
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	+130	$36	29¢	$38	+$1	10-25 21:01
Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026?	Yes	+438	$73	8¢	$37	-$35	10-12 14:49
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+250	$32	12¢	$31	-$1	09-15 19:01
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+205	$40	14¢	$28	-$12	10-17 12:55
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+355	$33	6¢	$23	-$10	09-03 16:39
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+162	$17	9¢	$15	-$2	10-27 07:31
Will Monaco win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?	Yes	+304	$19	4¢	$11	-$8	09-21 23:33
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+130	$9	8¢	$10	+$1	09-10 01:55
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+225	$8	2¢	$6	-$2	08-13 01:13
Will Justin Herbert win the 2026 NFL MVP?	Yes	+225	$25	2¢	$4	-$21	08-09 18:22
Will Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?	Yes	+200	$4	2¢	$4	+$0	08-10 10:32
Will Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?	Yes	+225	$1	1¢	$3	+$2	09-22 02:12
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	+210	$52	1¢	$2	-$50	08-24 10:59
Will Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?	Yes	+200	$4	1¢	$2	-$2	08-07 09:11
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+27	$1	5¢	$1	+$0	08-11 05:11
Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+685	$2	0¢	$1	-$1	08-13 00:59
Will a team from CBLOL (Brazil) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	+326	$2	0¢	$0	-$1	08-09 06:59
Will Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?	Yes	+235	$2	0¢	$0	-$2	08-07 01:50
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+235	$0	0¢	$0	$0	08-02 09:53
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+23	$0	0¢	$0	$0	08-01 14:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	42	$2.1K	4,206	0	+4,206	Yes	-$5	03-07 05:29
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	27	$1.3K	3,033	200	+2,833	No	-$8	03-07 08:59
bitcoin up or down on february 6	37	$519	1,078	20	+1,058	Up	+$68	02-06 13:13
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay?	7	$343	358	0	+358	No	+$15	06-12 11:28
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	5	$298	599	0	+599	No	+$0	03-07 10:53
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?	14	$278	1,712	0	+1,712	open	—	10-27 13:09
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	8	$249	700	0	+700	Yes	+$252	05-23 02:26
bitcoin up or down on february 5	12	$236	450	90	+360	Down	-$19	02-05 08:16
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	5	$231	335	0	+335	No	+$7	06-12 18:11
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	27	$223	817	0	+817	No	-$23	06-17 06:47
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference?	3	$217	459	0	+459	No	-$17	05-30 01:43
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	3	$209	400	0	+400	No	-$9	05-18 23:09
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	3	$203	400	0	+400	No	-$3	06-12 17:31
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch?	2	$201	400	0	+400	No	-$1	03-07 08:29
ucl cel lin2 2026 08 19 btts first half	1	$191	210	0	+210	No	-$191	08-19 19:00
Algeria leading at halftime?	1	$188	200	0	+200	No	+$12	06-10 13:08
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia?	4	$188	200	0	+200	No	+$12	06-11 17:56
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	1	$184	200	0	+200	No	+$16	06-12 12:44
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa?	5	$178	250	0	+250	No	+$22	06-11 18:05
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?	11	$175	937	0	+937	No	-$175	09-10 04:52
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa?	4	$170	230	0	+230	No	+$11	06-11 17:52
Will MLS All-Stars vs. Liga MX All-Stars end in a draw?	1	$169	235	0	+235	No	-$169	07-30 00:00
Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2026 NFL MVP?	10	$164	1,572	0	+1,572	open	—	10-26 03:54
Will FK Rīgas Futbola Skola win on 2026-07-30?	1	$139	250	0	+250	No	+$111	07-30 18:11
Wuhan Tennis Open: Janice Tjen vs Oleksandra Oliynykova	1	$125	250	0	+250	cancelled	+$0	10-11 07:53
LoL: Galions vs Saigon Warriors (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group D	4	$119	460	0	+460	Galions	-$119	09-21 07:42
nhl utah chi 2026 03 09	2	$117	200	0	+200	Blackhawks	-$17	03-10 01:12
cs2 bsta zettag 2026 08 26	2	$114	200	0	+200	cancelled	-$14	08-26 18:55
Will FK Polissia win on 2026-07-29?	1	$114	210	0	+210	No	-$114	07-29 17:00
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	10	$113	920	0	+920	No	-$113	10-25 23:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 06:14:13	Will Darryn Peterson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	Yes	BUY	103	8¢	$8	0x6ec372…
10-28 00:16:20	Will Brock Purdy win the 2026 NFL MVP?	Yes	BUY	171	19¢	$32	0x64def3…
10-27 22:55:29	Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 237.5	Over	BUY	31	24¢	$7	0x6f2202…
10-27 22:55:05	Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 241.5	Over	BUY	28	17¢	$5	0x22121b…
10-27 13:09:26	Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?	No	BUY	210	14¢	$29	0xad5829…
10-27 12:50:21	Will AJ Dybantsa win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0x939253…
10-27 12:09:45	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	235	22¢	$52	0xd9b9c9…
10-27 09:05:15	Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x466ac0…
10-27 07:31:08	Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	32	10¢	$3	0x4da505…
10-26 22:50:59	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	16¢	$41	0x49f466…
10-26 22:47:41	Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	235	16¢	$37	0x8532b7…
10-26 21:12:03	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	225	28¢	$62	0x7b4e07…
10-26 20:40:06	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	213	11¢	$24	0x560d7f…
10-26 20:38:06	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0x7881d5…
10-26 19:01:56	Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	12¢	$16	0x20983f…
10-26 19:00:56	Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	13¢	$15	0xecd55a…
10-26 18:07:05	Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2026 NFC South?	Yes	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0xea7105…
10-26 17:59:33	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	207	17¢	$35	0xd817e0…
10-26 17:47:33	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	17¢	$5	0x2cdf24…
10-26 10:41:41	Will Washington Commanders win the 2026 NFC East?	Yes	BUY	55	15¢	$8	0x2cb41a…
10-26 10:41:14	Will Brock Purdy win the 2026 NFL MVP?	Yes	BUY	35	17¢	$6	0xdc7b77…
10-26 08:55:09	Shanghai Sharks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers	Guangdong Southern Tigers	BUY	225	13¢	$30	0xf54bd3…
10-26 07:37:41	Will Washington Commanders win the 2026 NFC East?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$1	0x5afcc2…
10-26 06:12:42	Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	130	10¢	$14	0xfbdfd7…
10-26 03:54:03	Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2026 NFL MVP?	Yes	BUY	225	7¢	$17	0xbd17aa…
10-26 01:24:50	Will Washington Commanders win the 2026 NFC East?	Yes	BUY	250	15¢	$37	0xb3d13a…
10-25 23:18:57	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x9c5d48…
10-25 23:17:57	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x362af2…
10-25 23:17:27	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	224	18¢	$41	0xf9e96b…
10-25 23:15:27	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	11	17¢	$2	0x7f5ec0…
10-25 21:11:51	LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner	LYON	BUY	250	31¢	$78	0x9f9b1b…
10-25 21:01:41	Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	BUY	130	28¢	$36	0x15d4bc…
10-25 18:26:09	Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	210	18¢	$38	0xfa05c7…
10-25 15:03:42	RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	62	12¢	$7	0x980715…
10-25 05:53:53	Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	13¢	$33	0xd01369…
10-24 23:46:23	Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	225	13¢	$29	0x9a26c6…
10-24 08:49:18	Zhejiang Lions vs. Jilin Northeast Tigers	Jilin Northeast Tigers	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x814ad4…
10-23 11:27:21	ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C: Uganda vs Mozambique	Mozambique	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xdbab14…
10-22 13:57:20	Will Washington Commanders win the 2026 NFC East?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xf7d07c…
10-22 04:28:20	Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs WW Team (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs	WW Team	BUY	215	20¢	$43	0x90b050…
10-22 02:52:18	Valorant: Nova Esports vs Any Questions Gaming (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 1	Any Questions Gaming	BUY	107	27¢	$29	0xf9c810…
10-22 02:51:18	Valorant: Nova Esports vs Any Questions Gaming (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 1	Any Questions Gaming	BUY	75	27¢	$20	0xcaf53c…
10-21 12:52:05	Como 1907 vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	25	19¢	$5	0x2d500d…
10-21 11:24:56	Qingdao Eagles vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards	Liaoning Flying Leopards	BUY	18	26¢	$5	0xbe9780…
10-21 11:13:56	Qingdao Eagles vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards	Liaoning Flying Leopards	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x00d3bb…
10-21 11:11:56	Qingdao Eagles vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards	Liaoning Flying Leopards	BUY	181	24¢	$44	0xcf7495…
10-21 05:57:35	Valorant: Any Questions Gaming vs World Sports Invictus Gaming (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 1	World Sports Invictus Gaming	BUY	225	23¢	$51	0x6417b9…
10-20 18:14:15	Manchester City FC to score first vs. AEK?	No	BUY	250	16¢	$40	0xa705bf…
10-20 17:38:18	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	17	22¢	$4	0xc69ecf…
10-20 17:06:38	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: Neither team to score first?	Yes	BUY	155	4¢	$6	0xea438a…
10-20 16:44:38	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: Neither team to score first?	Yes	BUY	60	4¢	$2	0x76f833…
10-20 16:17:51	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	22	19¢	$4	0x55a305…
10-20 15:44:38	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: Neither team to score first?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xc4ebd5…
10-20 15:42:17	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x5a25ae…
10-20 15:10:17	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x9d9f25…
10-20 05:56:42	VfB Stuttgart vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	130	31¢	$41	0x87e2f3…
10-19 19:42:30	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	41	23¢	$10	0x542b57…
10-19 14:13:05	Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Alycia Parks	Alycia Parks	BUY	210	19¢	$40	0x9bb0c7…
10-19 02:33:41	Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?	Yes	BUY	13	18¢	$2	0x9b63f7…
10-19 02:24:41	Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?	Yes	BUY	23	18¢	$4	0xa80afa…
10-18 16:03:09	Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Under	BUY	54	25¢	$13	0xfa884f…
10-18 15:52:09	Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Under	BUY	42	25¢	$10	0xe074cc…
10-18 15:01:38	Le Havre AC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	48	20¢	$10	0xd8fb10…
10-18 08:18:08	Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Beijing Ducks	Jilin Northeast Tigers	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xb61e56…
10-17 21:04:26	Exact Score: Orlando City SC 4 - 1 D.C. United SC?	Yes	BUY	210	4¢	$9	0xd6c720…
10-17 16:22:51	Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?	No	BUY	225	14¢	$32	0xb8b293…
10-17 13:03:09	Exact Score: Hamburger SV 3 - 4 VfB Stuttgart?	Yes	BUY	45	1¢	$1	0x18e1cf…
10-17 13:02:12	Exact Score: Hamburger SV 4 - 2 VfB Stuttgart?	Yes	BUY	57	1¢	$1	0xce0acc…
10-17 13:01:15	Exact Score: SV Werder Bremen 2 - 4 SC Paderborn 07?	Yes	BUY	35	1¢	$0	0x93b740…
10-17 12:56:51	Venezia FC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	60	19¢	$11	0x57288f…
10-17 12:55:57	Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	131	19¢	$25	0x3d5f19…
10-17 12:52:09	Exact Score: Hamburger SV 3 - 4 VfB Stuttgart?	Yes	BUY	136	1¢	$2	0x7007ac…
10-17 01:42:27	Charleston Southern vs. Clemson	Charleston Southern	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x078991…
10-16 12:51:24	Counter-Strike: Phantom vs RoundsGG (BO1) - Elisa BreakOut Series #2 Group B	RoundsGG	BUY	234	13¢	$30	0xc82c37…
10-16 02:46:34	Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	8	7¢	$1	0x2881db…
10-16 02:32:34	Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0xedfb1e…
10-16 02:31:33	Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	115	10¢	$11	0xdb01c1…
10-16 02:11:04	Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	225	19¢	$43	0xf2707c…
10-16 00:53:10	Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	59	14¢	$8	0xe02532…
10-16 00:52:10	Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	118	15¢	$18	0x049d48…
10-15 22:12:59	Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs Off Chops (BO3) - Logitech G Pro Series Group B	Off Chops	BUY	225	5¢	$11	0x0c1fac…
10-15 18:51:37	Exact Score: Sport Lisboa e Benfica 4 - 3 Celtic FC?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$2	0xf5eb00…
10-15 15:28:43	RU Saint-Gilloise vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 7.5	Over	BUY	130	2¢	$3	0xedbec9…
10-14 22:05:33	Toronto FC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 8.5	Over	BUY	167	2¢	$3	0x70e05d…
10-14 18:48:00	ucl ast fen 2026 10 14 corners total 13pt5	Over	BUY	33	19¢	$6	0xee1e88…
10-14 18:46:58	ucl ast fen 2026 10 14 corners total 13pt5	Over	BUY	23	19¢	$4	0xbcde8c…
10-14 17:22:15	lol we bro2 2026 10 15 total games 3pt5	Under	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x3b9b6d…
10-14 16:26:21	Exact Score: Feyenoord Rotterdam 3 - 5 Como 1907?	Yes	BUY	176	1¢	$1	0xf2ab86…
10-13 18:41:03	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	45	20¢	$9	0x89938e…
10-13 17:43:04	Viking FK to score first vs. FC Bayern München?	Yes	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0xad6c72…
10-13 01:32:12	Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?	No	BUY	225	14¢	$32	0x76de41…
10-12 22:08:54	Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?	No	BUY	225	14¢	$32	0xe5d2c7…
10-12 21:01:05	LoL: LOS vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 1 Winner	KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xcb49dd…
10-12 19:16:03	LoL: LOS vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 1 Winner	KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas	BUY	172	12¢	$21	0x4436a2…
10-12 16:06:06	Atalanta BC vs. Venezia FC: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	29	16¢	$5	0xc5b09c…
10-12 15:52:08	Atalanta BC vs. Venezia FC: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	19	15¢	$3	0xbe7e22…
10-12 14:49:20	Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	17¢	$12	0xd1fc0d…
10-12 14:24:20	Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	17¢	$4	0x570642…
10-12 14:18:21	Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	17¢	$19	0x29902d…
10-12 13:03:32	Exact Score: Atalanta BC 4 - 0 Venezia FC?	Yes	BUY	210	4¢	$9	0xa55bff…