Gruesome-Farming — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$407

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

69.3%

Resolved

278

Trades

554

lifetime

Volume

$29.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$54

Open exposure

$62

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 08:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 112 days

Categories

Politics

47% 46% -$247

Other

37% 62% -$498

Sports

16% 68% +$338

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Blue tsunami in 2026?	Yes		+92	$55	68¢	$62	+$7	10-29 01:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spx opens up or down on march 2 2026	7	$1.4K	812	812	+0	Down	+$26	03-02 09:06
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	4	$1.2K	840	840	+0	Yes	+$509	06-14 23:40
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	7	$725	405	405	+0	No	$0	03-31 20:06
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	5	$563	425	201	+224	Yes	+$7	10-28 02:32
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	4	$554	382	382	+0	Yes	+$204	03-01 01:39
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$465	415	415	+0	Yes	+$360	03-01 01:39
spx opens up or down on march 9 2026	3	$455	233	233	+0	Down	+$11	03-09 19:24
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	6	$440	543	543	-0	Yes	+$0	01-21 02:21
ufc jul11 car20 2026 02 21	5	$431	253	253	+0	Judice	+$76	02-21 22:28
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	5	$420	400	400	+0	No	+$0	03-19 02:22
wta inglis swiatek 2026 01 26	3	$414	337	89	+248	Swiatek	+$7	01-26 03:19
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	4	$403	319	319	+0	No	-$47	03-22 09:58
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	2	$386	336	336	+0	Yes	+$44	06-14 10:11
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	4	$381	237	409	-172	Yes	+$46	02-28 08:49
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	8	$366	712	712	+0	Yes	+$113	02-28 08:50
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	3	$362	374	374	+0	Yes	-$158	06-15 08:39
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	2	$352	219	219	+0	open	—	10-24 08:41
spx up or down on march 2 2026	3	$352	221	181	+40	Up	-$19	03-02 20:08
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$343	567	0	+567	No	-$343	04-17 09:28
will trump declare war on iran by february 28 2026	3	$341	190	190	+0	No	+$1	02-28 13:07
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	6	$318	358	358	+0	open	—	10-27 18:17
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	2	$309	253	253	+0	Yes	+$197	02-28 08:50
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	3	$309	196	196	+0	Yes	+$5	03-05 02:33
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	2	$308	203	203	+0	Yes	+$8	06-15 08:43
spx opens up or down on march 23 2026	4	$300	357	5	+352	Up	-$123	03-23 11:42
ufc cod3 don13 2026 03 07	2	$286	151	151	+0	Donte Johnson	+$17	03-08 02:12
spx opens up or down on march 30 2026	3	$279	234	234	+0	Up	+$39	03-30 08:23
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys	3	$271	194	144	+50	Buccaneers	-$40	10-08 06:19
will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	2	$270	158	158	+0	Yes	+$2	03-02 09:06
will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	2	$259	135	135	+0	Yes	+$9	03-02 06:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 08:51:08	Panthers vs. Packers	Packers	SELL	62	64¢	$39	0x65dae6…
10-29 06:26:35	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?	Yes	SELL	77	27¢	$21	0x2e50c5…
10-29 03:47:49	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	Yes	BUY	120	17¢	$20	0x30b3fc…
10-29 03:37:44	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0xce0c76…
10-29 01:09:20	Blue tsunami in 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	60¢	$55	0x74636d…
10-29 00:40:28	Will Democrats sweep the Ohio Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	BUY	90	67¢	$60	0xad4e8b…
10-28 23:15:38	Will Democrats sweep the Ohio Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x3404c3…
10-28 02:32:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	24	96¢	$23	0xb67666…
10-28 02:20:48	Panthers vs. Packers	Packers	BUY	62	65¢	$40	0x77b838…
10-28 02:07:38	Pan Pacific Open: Alexandra Eala vs Talia Gibson	Alexandra Eala	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0x5f3d61…
10-28 02:06:54	Set Handicap: Dayana Yastremska (-1.5) vs Han Shi (+1.5)	Han Shi	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x157c2b…
10-27 18:17:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	SELL	233	41¢	$97	0x4700f5…
10-27 18:15:50	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	81	73¢	$59	0x79e8ff…
10-27 13:21:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	143	45¢	$64	0x9bfc3c…
10-27 13:20:36	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	99	65¢	$64	0x889d8c…
10-27 11:28:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	90	45¢	$41	0x922386…
10-27 11:27:12	Guangzhou Open: Lilli Tagger vs Venus Williams	Lilli Tagger	SELL	41	99¢	$41	0x295517…
10-27 08:55:50	Guangzhou Open: Lilli Tagger vs Venus Williams	Lilli Tagger	BUY	41	93¢	$38	0x25001c…
10-26 09:31:24	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	52	75¢	$39	0x55765d…
10-26 09:27:06	Cowboys vs. Eagles	Cowboys	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0x1b3093…
10-26 09:20:20	Pan Pacific Open: Alexandra Eala vs Mika Stojsavljevic	Alexandra Eala	SELL	60	100¢	$59	0xb1725d…
10-26 08:19:21	Pan Pacific Open: Alexandra Eala vs Mika Stojsavljevic	Alexandra Eala	BUY	60	94¢	$56	0xfb7c06…
10-26 08:17:51	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	SELL	125	45¢	$56	0x218920…
10-26 05:02:20	Cowboys vs. Eagles	Cowboys	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0x20411c…
10-26 05:01:56	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	37	54¢	$20	0x5181de…
10-26 04:24:24	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	99	65¢	$64	0x6f4549…
10-26 04:23:08	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	62	48¢	$30	0x676769…
10-26 04:15:42	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x87a7be…
10-26 04:09:12	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x3b5af8…
10-26 03:36:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	63	48¢	$30	0x770237…
10-26 00:15:48	Chiefs vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	BUY	36	59¢	$21	0xb8d711…
10-25 22:42:08	Packers vs. Lions	Lions	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0x145f3b…
10-25 21:35:17	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	SELL	46	0¢	$0	0x787afb…
10-25 19:56:15	Rams vs. Raiders	Rams	BUY	59	62¢	$37	0xa4a073…
10-25 19:55:20	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0xf22b0c…
10-25 09:47:06	Colts vs. Vikings	Vikings	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x03a322…
10-25 09:46:24	49ers vs. Falcons	Falcons	BUY	35	43¢	$15	0x0ba3cd…
10-25 09:39:48	Giants vs. Texans	Texans	BUY	54	81¢	$44	0xd05c02…
10-25 09:36:05	Steelers vs. Saints	Steelers	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0xaf0237…
10-25 09:35:26	Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez	Elena Rybakina	BUY	29	75¢	$22	0xf8bd76…
10-25 09:07:09	Isaiah Likely: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5	Over	BUY	36	65¢	$23	0x5ebc3a…
10-25 09:06:29	Cam Skattebo: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5	Over	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x1f0616…
10-25 09:00:57	J.J. McCarthy: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5	Over	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x040f5f…
10-25 05:59:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	49	95¢	$46	0xe37e31…
10-25 05:57:17	Missouri vs. Arkansas	Missouri	SELL	59	74¢	$44	0x271325…
10-25 05:57:09	Will Hae-Ran Ryu win the 2026 BMW Ladies Championship?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x92541e…
10-25 01:05:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	151	95¢	$144	0x14fa02…
10-25 00:59:21	Will Hae-Ran Ryu win the 2026 BMW Ladies Championship?	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x770c6e…
10-24 10:41:21	UFC 333: Nicolle Caliari vs. Iasmin Lucindo (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims)	Iasmin Lucindo	BUY	40	79¢	$31	0x9c9726…
10-24 09:03:41	Missouri vs. Arkansas	Missouri	BUY	59	81¢	$48	0x738e66…
10-24 08:58:26	Texas A&M vs. Alabama	Alabama	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0x28fec9…
10-24 08:56:48	Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Maya Joint vs Viktorija Golubic	Maya Joint	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0xb4658e…
10-24 08:55:42	Indiana vs. Michigan	Indiana	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0xb7e63f…
10-24 08:54:15	UFC 333: Nicolle Caliari vs. Iasmin Lucindo (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims)	Iasmin Lucindo	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0xe856d5…
10-24 08:52:14	Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider	Elena Rybakina	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0xaed657…
10-24 08:44:23	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0x9d2b2e…
10-24 08:41:09	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	219	82¢	$179	0xe21bf7…
10-22 10:36:08	Ningbo Open: Alexandra Eala vs Diana Shnaider	Alexandra Eala	SELL	24	4¢	$1	0x79e13f…
10-22 09:20:03	Ningbo Open: Alexandra Eala vs Diana Shnaider	Alexandra Eala	BUY	24	56¢	$13	0x3aecf6…
10-22 09:19:26	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	17	80¢	$14	0xfc47c2…
10-21 03:09:05	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	219	79¢	$173	0x486295…
10-21 03:08:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	201	86¢	$173	0xb181e8…
10-20 03:51:56	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	17	73¢	$13	0xf79597…
10-19 04:38:53	Commanders vs. 49ers	49ers	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xc07c11…
10-19 04:29:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	201	88¢	$177	0xeb2c91…
10-14 10:20:17	wta volynet guo 2026 10 13	Hanyu Guo	SELL	24	47¢	$11	0xa260c6…
10-14 10:16:37	wta krueger tararud 2026 10 14 set handicap home 1pt5	Lanlana Tararudee	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x47560e…
10-14 10:12:26	wta ostapen pegula 2026 10 13 set handicap away 1pt5	Jessica Pegula	SELL	24	0¢	$0	0x2805fd…
10-14 09:02:22	wta volynet guo 2026 10 13	Hanyu Guo	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x4f2bc6…
10-14 08:54:44	wta ostapen pegula 2026 10 13 set handicap away 1pt5	Jessica Pegula	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x0134a6…
10-14 08:44:22	wta shi fernand 2026 10 13 game handicap away 4pt5	Han Shi	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xf30064…
10-14 08:41:08	wta sabalen annli 2026 10 14 game handicap home 5pt5	Ann Li	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xe18387…
10-14 08:40:53	wta ostapen pegula 2026 10 13 set handicap away 1pt5	Jessica Pegula	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x229a16…
10-14 08:15:37	wta tjen snigur 2026 10 13	Daria Snigur	SELL	16	11¢	$2	0x06a1f4…
10-14 07:02:19	wta tjen snigur 2026 10 13	Daria Snigur	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x95c847…
10-14 06:59:28	wta muchova mcnally 2026 10 13	Karolina Muchova	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0x9904cf…
10-14 06:57:29	wta krueger tararud 2026 10 14	Lanlana Tararudee	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xcfc353…
10-14 04:22:20	wta bouzkov chwalin 2026 10 13	Maja Chwalinska	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xd6d30d…
10-13 23:50:43	Dana White's Contender Series: Aline Pereira vs. Smilla Sundell (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card)	Smilla Sundell	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0x8cef4d…
10-13 06:44:16	Wuhan Tennis Open: Katie Boulter vs Diana Shnaider	Diana Shnaider	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x17c7cb…
10-13 05:53:49	Wuhan Tennis Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Katie Volynets	Katie Volynets	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x5df97b…
10-12 13:32:38	Spread: Rams (-4.5)	Bills	BUY	44	56¢	$24	0x0ca50d…
10-12 06:11:14	Wuhan Tennis Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Sara Bejlek	Sara Bejlek	BUY	39	49¢	$19	0x2ae033…
10-12 06:07:47	Wuhan Tennis Open: Maria Sakkari vs Donna Vekic	Donna Vekic	BUY	24	39¢	$9	0x6954bb…
10-12 06:06:14	Wuhan Tennis Open: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Magdalena Frech	Mananchaya Sawangkaew	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x5be366…
10-12 05:31:03	Dana White's Contender Series: Aline Pereira vs. Smilla Sundell (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card)	Smilla Sundell	BUY	136	81¢	$109	0x74be15…
10-10 08:51:07	Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Katie Volynets	Katie Volynets	BUY	17	72¢	$12	0xb76773…
10-10 08:50:24	Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Claire Liu	Lanlana Tararudee	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xd64d10…
10-10 08:29:04	Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Anna Bondar vs Lois Boisson	Anna Bondar	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xce499e…
10-10 07:20:01	Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Han Shi	Han Shi	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xdc79a1…
10-10 06:36:43	Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Han Shi	Han Shi	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xa9503d…
10-10 06:23:12	China Open (Doubles): Siniakova/Zhang vs Routliffe/Sutjiadi	Siniakova/Zhang	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x3ea830…
10-10 04:54:51	China Open (Doubles): Siniakova/Zhang vs Routliffe/Sutjiadi	Siniakova/Zhang	BUY	6	73¢	$5	0x53abce…
10-10 04:52:25	Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Taylah Preston vs Ashlyn Krueger	Taylah Preston	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x282cde…
10-09 22:20:50	Will Layne Riggs win the 2026 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Ecosave 200?	Yes	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0xaeb357…
10-09 19:05:16	wta kenin rakhimo 2026 10 10	Kamilla Rakhimova	BUY	12	58¢	$7	0x874a73…
10-09 10:04:39	Game Spread: Iga Swiatek (-5.5) vs Elise Mertens (+5.5)	Elise Mertens	BUY	14	59¢	$8	0x69a0dd…
10-09 06:36:01	Suzhou: Aliona Falei vs Rebecca Sramkova	Rebecca Sramkova	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0x85fa79…
10-09 04:18:22	Suzhou: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Elvina Kalieva	Elvina Kalieva	BUY	8	57¢	$4	0x5c0794…
10-08 06:19:05	Buccaneers vs. Cowboys	Cowboys	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x4ca27b…