Untidy-Fluke — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$467

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

79.4%

Resolved

209

Trades

561

lifetime

Volume

$12.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$16

1 position

First seen

2026-04-04

last 11-10 15:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Other

93% 82% -$470

Politics

4% 56% +$10

Sports

1% 62% +$2

Crypto

1% 75% -$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes		+24	$16	66¢	$16	$0	11-06 03:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in hong kong on april 16 2026 29c	2	$1.2K	601	601	+0	No	+$1	04-16 15:39
highest temperature in hong kong on april 22 2026 27c	3	$620	622	0	+622	No	+$2	04-22 06:23
highest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 27c	5	$508	500	200	+300	No	+$9	04-23 05:58
highest temperature in hong kong on april 20 2026 30c	2	$500	500	15	+485	No	+$1	04-20 05:57
highest temperature in hong kong on april 17 2026 25c	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$1	04-17 02:30
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?	13	$450	482	692	-209	No	-$302	04-28 07:03
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 28?	2	$404	0	407	-407	Yes	-$4	04-28 08:15
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 24 2026 25c	1	$335	335	0	+335	No	+$0	04-24 06:36
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 25?	3	$300	302	0	+302	No	+$2	04-25 03:58
highest temperature in beijing on april 18 2026 27c	7	$213	122	121	+1	Yes	+$22	04-18 08:02
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 22 2026 28c	2	$208	211	0	+211	No	+$3	04-22 01:50
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 220 239	3	$202	206	5	+201	Yes	+$3	04-21 14:52
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 28?	3	$201	204	203	+1	No	+$6	04-28 06:17
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 25?	5	$201	202	202	-0	No	+$2	04-25 03:31
highest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 26c	2	$201	200	500	-300	No	+$1	04-23 06:32
highest temperature in hong kong on april 21 2026 31corhigher	2	$200	201	100	+101	No	+$1	04-21 05:45
highest temperature in hong kong on april 19 2026 25c	5	$200	100	100	+0	No	+$0	04-18 19:24
highest temperature in hong kong on april 19 2026 27c	1	$200	200	0	+200	No	+$0	04-19 03:11
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 28?	2	$200	203	0	+203	No	+$3	04-28 02:58
highest temperature in london on april 18 2026 16c	7	$180	153	152	+1	Yes	-$100	04-18 15:05
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Shanghai Sharks	8	$171	170	110	+60	Shanghai Sharks	-$3	04-24 13:05
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	2	$163	83	83	+0	No	+$3	05-07 07:54
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$153	116	116	+0	No	-$47	04-22 06:40
highest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 23c	1	$151	0	152	-152	Yes	$0	04-24 22:46
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	2	$136	41	111	-70	No	+$56	06-03 12:03
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 400 419	1	$124	124	0	+124	No	+$0	04-18 15:39
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 28?	2	$111	112	0	+112	No	+$1	04-28 02:15
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 23 2026 28c	5	$110	79	79	+1	Yes	-$24	04-23 04:55
donald trump of truth social posts april 10 april 17 140 159	2	$105	54	54	+0	Yes	-$1	04-17 15:51
highest temperature in hong kong on april 18 2026 28c	2	$102	0	103	-103	Yes	-$1	04-18 08:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-10 15:04:16	Will the lowest temperature in Guangzhou be 14°C on November 10?	No	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x2f700c…
11-10 14:43:28	Will the lowest temperature in Guangzhou be 14°C on November 10?	No	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0x44bd49…
11-10 13:14:51	Will the lowest temperature in Guangzhou be 14°C on November 10?	No	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0xcdb78f…
11-06 03:12:07	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	9	68¢	$6	0x42b38f…
11-02 08:19:09	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x9ee02c…
06-07 06:31:03	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xaf7ef7…
06-03 12:03:19	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x1877df…
06-03 11:52:53	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xdfe667…
06-03 11:52:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3?	No	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0xf37e4a…
06-03 03:13:53	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3?	No	BUY	14	78¢	$11	0xf9f71f…
06-03 03:12:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x3643b4…
06-03 03:12:43	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3?	No	BUY	11	83¢	$9	0x920fc6…
06-03 03:12:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xa12de1…
06-03 03:11:44	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xb25706…
06-03 03:09:27	Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0x593e6b…
06-02 07:15:43	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 2?	No	SELL	38	92¢	$34	0x0ecd20…
06-02 01:50:43	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 2?	No	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0xd7e343…
06-01 23:23:59	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0x6aed72…
06-01 12:05:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	43¢	$7	0x0c2d8a…
06-01 12:04:38	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	62¢	$8	0xed3b86…
06-01 09:04:24	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x0d36e4…
06-01 08:26:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x5300d5…
05-27 12:26:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x8005a3…
05-27 12:26:13	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 27?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x44ee89…
05-26 08:58:40	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x6fc4f5…
05-26 08:58:17	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 27?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x978272…
05-26 08:49:39	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	87¢	$12	0xe255c5…
05-26 07:22:04	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 27?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf482cc…
05-26 07:21:50	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 27?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x6aa9e8…
05-25 09:22:30	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 26?	No	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x54a5a0…
05-25 09:21:41	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	SELL	28	92¢	$26	0xbfdfc2…
05-22 02:38:09	Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x68c568…
05-22 02:25:01	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	64¢	$8	0x620ba9…
05-21 07:39:03	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x5443b3…
05-20 11:58:03	Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks	Shanghai Sharks	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xeb857c…
05-11 11:29:39	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x097287…
05-10 12:54:25	Zhejiang Golden Bulls vs. Shenzhen Leopards	Shenzhen Leopards	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xe837bd…
05-10 12:53:08	Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions	Zhejiang Lions	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0x6daa1e…
05-10 12:50:32	Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions	Zhejiang Lions	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x373b28…
05-10 12:29:20	Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions	Zhejiang Lions	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x1a8c88…
05-10 12:28:43	Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions	Zhejiang Lions	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x8cb381…
05-10 12:27:07	Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions	Zhejiang Lions	SELL	8	79¢	$7	0xe8c458…
05-10 12:16:18	Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions	Zhejiang Lions	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x4bf694…
05-10 12:11:03	Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions	Zhejiang Lions	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x44ebe9…
05-10 12:04:48	Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions	Zhejiang Lions	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xa10c4f…
05-09 09:05:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x9852e9…
05-09 03:32:55	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xfc88a8…
05-08 15:51:48	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x7391d9…
05-08 15:48:53	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x118b6a…
05-08 15:44:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	33	65¢	$21	0xab914c…
05-08 04:17:21	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	68	96¢	$65	0xa4f5a6…
05-07 12:44:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xa06a10…
05-07 12:44:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x688435…
05-07 07:54:41	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	83	100¢	$83	0xc52f77…
05-06 02:31:46	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	83	97¢	$80	0xc89bb3…
05-01 15:21:22	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	1¢	$1	0x4d66da…
05-01 15:20:16	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	82	94¢	$77	0xb471ef…
05-01 02:54:16	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 1?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x22ed1e…
05-01 02:53:52	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 1?	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x773704…
04-30 09:13:40	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0xb5a245…
04-30 09:09:50	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	SELL	111	86¢	$96	0x0e3c01…
04-28 09:07:36	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	173	0¢	$0	0x50a82d…
04-28 08:15:12	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	401	100¢	$401	0xc04fd1…
04-28 07:03:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	355	0¢	$1	0xf70cc9…
04-28 06:17:36	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	203	1¢	$1	0x637a3e…
04-28 06:09:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	358	84¢	$300	0x829654…
04-28 06:09:30	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	213	11¢	$24	0x13d29c…
04-28 05:58:14	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	313	18¢	$57	0x181578…
04-28 05:52:24	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 28?	Yes	SELL	213	0¢	$0	0xee9354…
04-28 05:50:32	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	1	62¢	$1	0xc42359…
04-28 05:50:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xf87508…
04-28 05:50:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xf1301c…
04-28 05:50:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	41	62¢	$25	0x6df857…
04-28 05:50:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	27	62¢	$17	0x91df8e…
04-28 05:50:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x6f09e5…
04-28 05:50:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	4	62¢	$3	0x414524…
04-28 05:19:40	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 28?	Yes	SELL	204	0¢	$0	0x4b688b…
04-28 05:17:10	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 28?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xb043d6…
04-28 05:16:32	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 28?	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x25a8f2…
04-28 05:13:00	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0x2ce3b9…
04-28 04:20:16	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	213	0¢	$1	0x8d413c…
04-28 04:17:34	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x6ca7fb…
04-28 04:08:50	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x5a1fed…
04-28 04:06:28	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 28?	Yes	SELL	103	0¢	$0	0x538f19…
04-28 03:20:06	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x13323e…
04-28 03:18:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0xdae968…
04-28 03:13:50	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	24	66¢	$16	0x9a2ece…
04-28 03:10:12	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x35a88b…
04-28 02:58:00	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 28?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x4df6a4…
04-28 02:55:10	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	50	23¢	$11	0x91f12c…
04-28 02:54:46	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	6	48¢	$3	0x9631db…
04-28 02:47:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	112	0¢	$0	0x056ae4…
04-28 02:47:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	22	17¢	$4	0xea6696…
04-28 02:32:34	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 28?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe3f9a6…
04-28 02:28:14	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 28?	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x414cc9…
04-28 02:25:46	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0xac9a86…
04-28 02:25:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0xac3629…
04-28 02:22:40	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xcf0aa4…
04-28 02:21:06	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xa6d533…
04-28 02:20:34	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xed3489…