Worse-Fit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$120

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.5%

Resolved

423

Trades

4,476

lifetime

Volume

$18.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-18

last 05-19 05:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 37% $-111

Other

2% 64% $-9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 695 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	19	$206	193	193	+0	Down	+$10	05-09 11:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	8	$195	286	272	+14	open	—	04-25 16:00
btc updown 5m 1776814200	19	$189	139	121	+18	open	—	04-21 23:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	10	$172	131	131	+0	Down	+$18	05-09 10:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	85	$170	172	0	+172	open	—	05-03 02:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	73	$146	161	0	+161	Down	$-146	05-05 06:45
btc updown 5m 1776813600	15	$141	259	191	+69	open	—	04-21 23:23
btc updown 5m 1776774000	11	$104	103	78	+25	open	—	04-21 12:24
btc updown 5m 1776783900	11	$103	97	77	+20	open	—	04-21 15:08
btc updown 5m 1776816000	12	$102	115	109	+6	open	—	04-22 00:04
btc updown 5m 1776813300	10	$102	73	69	+4	open	—	04-21 23:18
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	2	$99	100	0	+100	Up	+$1	05-06 16:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	21	$99	95	84	+11	open	—	04-27 19:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	4	$96	211	211	+0	open	—	05-15 08:34
btc updown 5m 1776808500	10	$92	75	71	+4	open	—	04-21 21:59
btc updown 5m 1776795900	10	$92	77	73	+4	open	—	04-21 18:30
btc updown 5m 1776810900	9	$87	74	52	+21	open	—	04-21 22:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	4	$86	108	108	+0	open	—	05-15 02:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	16	$86	111	58	+53	Down	+$36	05-09 10:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	17	$83	69	60	+9	open	—	04-27 18:44
btc updown 5m 1776798900	9	$81	76	51	+24	open	—	04-21 19:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	3	$74	227	68	+159	open	—	04-25 15:37
btc updown 5m 1776788700	8	$73	51	48	+3	open	—	04-21 16:29
btc updown 5m 1776762300	9	$71	115	84	+31	open	—	04-21 09:10
btc updown 5m 1776775500	8	$69	78	35	+44	open	—	04-21 12:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	2	$68	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-14 14:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	15	$68	97	85	+12	open	—	04-27 20:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	8	$66	78	74	+4	open	—	04-27 02:20
btc updown 5m 1776800700	7	$66	57	42	+15	open	—	04-21 19:47
btc updown 5m 1776809700	7	$65	55	40	+15	open	—	04-21 22:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-19 05:09:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x4e5772…
05-19 05:08:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x23990a…
05-19 03:44:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x8db4df…
05-19 03:43:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xf442d9…
05-19 03:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0xd00d97…
05-19 03:38:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x3de0c3…
05-19 03:27:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	6	11¢	$1	0x7c5ae7…
05-19 03:27:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x292636…
05-19 02:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	25	1¢	$0	0xd44240…
05-19 02:59:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x92bb2a…
05-19 02:50:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x42de21…
05-18 19:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x4b2820…
05-18 19:24:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	SELL	1	51¢	$1	0x8dbc8a…
05-18 19:24:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xbbbb9b…
05-18 19:20:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x945a4c…
05-16 01:09:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	SELL	167	4¢	$7	0xcbb6c2…
05-16 01:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0xae58b6…
05-16 01:08:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	SELL	56	4¢	$2	0x9ca189…
05-16 01:06:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xcec81d…
05-16 00:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	43	7¢	$3	0x22c843…
05-16 00:59:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x6f9a57…
05-16 00:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xbf4926…
05-15 23:34:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	SELL	9	13¢	$1	0xdf3693…
05-15 23:34:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	SELL	26	14¢	$4	0xf414d1…
05-15 23:33:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	35	28¢	$10	0x03ef81…
05-15 23:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	SELL	31	30¢	$9	0x74ca7b…
05-15 23:24:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x9f58ee…
05-15 23:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x845d41…
05-15 23:09:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	SELL	30	16¢	$5	0xbe46fd…
05-15 23:09:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xfd95a3…
05-15 23:04:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	SELL	53	7¢	$4	0xdd23e9…
05-15 23:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xf190f0…
05-15 22:49:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xfa3d4f…
05-15 22:48:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x171314…
05-15 22:34:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	SELL	52	10¢	$5	0x419099…
05-15 22:34:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0xa892f3…
05-15 22:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	71	34¢	$24	0x945a63…
05-15 22:29:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xe72260…
05-15 22:09:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xdd635f…
05-15 21:58:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	62	8¢	$5	0xa6c997…
05-15 21:57:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x66ff80…
05-15 21:57:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	167	5¢	$8	0xd7206e…
05-15 21:57:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x2a69ed…
05-15 21:47:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	28	8¢	$2	0x67cc7d…
05-15 21:47:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	18	8¢	$1	0x27e0c5…
05-15 21:46:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	46	22¢	$10	0x16e02b…
05-15 21:42:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	38	21¢	$8	0xa27621…
05-15 21:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x3026c4…
05-15 21:27:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	45	11¢	$5	0x720eab…
05-15 21:26:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xecb688…
05-15 21:19:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	SELL	71	5¢	$4	0x364269…
05-15 21:18:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x00d2d9…
05-15 21:18:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	SELL	43	15¢	$6	0x25172c…
05-15 21:17:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x02a65e…
05-15 21:13:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	122	6¢	$7	0x9f422c…
05-15 21:13:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	122	8¢	$10	0xf3cd2d…
05-15 21:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	SELL	42	19¢	$8	0x1b965c…
05-15 21:07:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xa2b228…
05-15 20:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	26	20¢	$5	0x23f670…
05-15 20:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0x184f5f…
05-15 20:38:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x592e8c…
05-15 18:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	SELL	22	75¢	$16	0xac1108…
05-15 18:53:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x6da944…
05-15 16:14:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	27	25¢	$7	0xe3f067…
05-15 16:14:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x06d4a7…
05-15 15:24:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x8eaae8…
05-15 15:24:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x33b9a2…
05-15 14:24:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0x1a05c0…
05-15 14:24:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0xf05f69…
05-15 14:23:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	SELL	21	42¢	$9	0x31df12…
05-15 14:23:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x2f6893…
05-15 14:04:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	SELL	49	1¢	$0	0x06ad75…
05-15 14:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	218	5¢	$10	0x4b16d3…
05-15 12:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xf46863…
05-15 10:45:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	122	8¢	$10	0x83c1a8…
05-15 09:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0x865352…
05-15 09:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	SELL	32	11¢	$4	0xc1fc4c…
05-15 09:53:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xb22416…
05-15 08:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	SELL	111	60¢	$67	0xf95ddb…
05-15 08:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0xaad87f…
05-15 08:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x3b547e…
05-15 08:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x14cad0…
05-15 08:27:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	45	6¢	$3	0x8c9a57…
05-15 08:26:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xe73c75…
05-15 08:24:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	52	15¢	$8	0x26ead2…
05-15 08:24:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0x9b7a95…
05-15 08:18:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x48f055…
05-15 08:14:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	30	29¢	$9	0xe19ba1…
05-15 08:14:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x97dcbe…
05-15 08:09:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	SELL	33	42¢	$14	0x94460c…
05-15 08:08:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x0f7636…
05-15 07:54:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	SELL	45	13¢	$6	0x2f9640…
05-15 07:53:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x18e7c9…
05-15 07:49:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	SELL	74	7¢	$5	0x61a85e…
05-15 07:49:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	74	13¢	$10	0x99b429…
05-15 07:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	62	1¢	$1	0x247600…
05-15 07:29:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0xad7f88…
05-15 07:29:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	35	7¢	$2	0x418a84…
05-15 07:29:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x2f754b…
05-15 07:29:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	45	17¢	$8	0x4d0ae4…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Good-Natured-Angora 0x6748…ee08	983	$79.9K	18,304	05-16 01:08
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	981	$281.9K	50,265	05-16 01:07
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	980	$303.6K	54,291	05-16 01:07
Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de	980	$1.56K	4,476	05-16 01:09
(anonymous) 0x48ac…4a7e	978	$278.2K	83,115	05-16 01:09
Slight-Goodnight 0x6088…f361	977	$293.7K	18,714	05-16 01:08
(anonymous) 0xd901…8e14	977	$289.0K	86,694	05-16 01:09
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	973	$601.6K	22,960	05-16 01:10