Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$262

Unrealized P&L

+$41

Hit rate

21.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.43K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$33

Open exposure

$408

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-20

last 10-29 16:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

58% 14% -$156

Politics

42% 14% -$105

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (14) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+2,080	$250	14¢	$281	+$31	10-15 18:35
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	+250	$50	26¢	$66	+$16	10-29 16:46
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	+200	$56	24¢	$47	-$9	10-21 12:03
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	Yes	-625	-$16	2¢	$-14	+$2	10-21 11:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	5	$439	385	385	+0	open	—	09-11 15:17
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	1	$250	2,080	0	+2,080	open	—	10-15 18:35
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	9	$114	1,426	1,190	+236	No	-$24	09-20 23:27
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	4	$94	100	100	+0	open	—	10-28 00:09
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	7	$86	120	120	+0	Yes	+$21	09-20 15:16
will spd win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	2	$77	203	203	+0	No	-$73	03-22 17:05
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	1	$56	200	0	+200	open	—	10-21 12:03
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	1	$50	250	0	+250	open	—	10-29 16:46
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	1	$50	385	0	+385	No	-$50	03-21 11:24
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	1	$50	179	0	+179	No	-$50	05-03 19:36
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$28	50	0	+50	Yes	+$22	03-21 11:20
will trump meet with xi jinping in september 2026 20260826	1	$25	323	0	+323	Yes	-$25	08-29 23:32
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by April 30, 2026?	1	$20	214	0	+214	No	-$20	04-06 12:36
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	1	$20	118	0	+118	No	-$20	03-22 15:30
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	1	$20	118	0	+118	No	-$20	04-06 12:39
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	1	$16	0	625	-625	open	—	10-21 11:57
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?	2	$12	533	533	+0	Yes	-$4	04-06 12:29
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?	1	$10	5,000	0	+5,000	No	-$10	10-21 09:05
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	1	$7	100	0	+100	No	-$7	10-21 09:08
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?	1	$2	100	0	+100	Yes	-$2	10-21 09:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 16:46:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	250	20¢	$50	0xd50c5c…
10-28 00:09:08	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	46	62¢	$28	0x779243…
10-28 00:09:08	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	54	62¢	$34	0x02f27f…
10-26 05:31:18	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	80	32¢	$26	0xdc2fe7…
10-26 00:30:33	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xef11b5…
10-21 12:03:47	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	200	28¢	$56	0x7134f3…
10-21 11:57:02	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	625	3¢	$16	0x9232d8…
10-21 09:36:02	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xf24248…
10-21 09:08:23	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xa7cad0…
10-21 09:05:42	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0x6ebc59…
10-15 18:35:43	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,080	12¢	$250	0x89bc2c…
09-20 23:27:17	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	BUY	120	6¢	$8	0xa0e2e6…
09-20 23:26:17	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	BUY	116	6¢	$7	0x21d67e…
09-20 16:23:49	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	SELL	590	2¢	$14	0x741b9d…
09-20 16:19:46	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	SELL	474	5¢	$22	0x210842…
09-20 16:17:15	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xc3e697…
09-20 16:16:46	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	SELL	26	7¢	$2	0x7b2510…
09-20 15:16:03	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	22	50¢	$11	0x1f5945…
09-20 15:10:31	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	39	43¢	$17	0x19ae2b…
09-20 15:08:31	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	15	44¢	$7	0xb4e0f1…
09-20 15:05:27	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	26	45¢	$12	0x3dcda3…
09-20 15:04:00	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	18	41¢	$7	0x8f1533…
09-20 14:49:48	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x73990a…
09-20 14:45:51	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	114	26¢	$30	0x9daaa7…
09-20 14:41:16	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0x1b9b13…
09-20 14:32:48	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	BUY	85	4¢	$4	0x095718…
09-20 14:31:49	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	BUY	605	4¢	$25	0x454643…
09-11 15:17:12	Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	105	95¢	$100	0x72e02a…
09-06 21:55:04	Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	105	87¢	$91	0x1124f3…
09-06 18:43:55	Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	175	79¢	$138	0x5b12d0…
09-05 14:49:21	Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0x9a8c07…
08-29 23:32:00	will trump meet with xi jinping in september 2026 20260826	No	BUY	323	8¢	$25	0xdcb978…
08-29 23:23:51	Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	BUY	206	29¢	$59	0xf65aff…
05-03 19:36:16	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0xbee0a0…
04-06 12:39:27	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	118	17¢	$20	0x1191a7…
04-06 12:36:33	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	214	9¢	$20	0x194fd9…
04-06 12:29:41	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?	No	SELL	533	1¢	$4	0xdf9332…
03-22 17:05:45	will spd win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	203	1¢	$2	0xd830e7…
03-22 15:30:51	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	118	17¢	$20	0x78c576…
03-22 12:12:27	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?	No	BUY	533	2¢	$8	0xc5aed6…
03-21 11:24:23	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	Yes	BUY	385	13¢	$50	0x3dfff3…
03-21 11:20:51	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x9ac9f5…
03-20 18:31:31	will spd win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	203	37¢	$75	0xa57163…