Likely-Blackbird — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

99.3%

Resolved

325

Trades

326

lifetime

Volume

$3.53K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 11-14 18:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 238 days

Categories

Other

95% 100% +$5

Politics

5% 90% -$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on November 15?	No		+9	$9	100¢	$9	$0	11-14 18:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$26	26	+26	No	-$26	05-15 05:07
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on May 2?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	05-02 15:09
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-30 08:55
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$25	26	+26	Yes	+$1	05-03 03:39
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-29 13:05
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-28 08:34
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on April 28?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-28 02:12
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on April 27?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-27 14:25
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on April 26?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-27 02:12
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on April 26?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-26 10:30
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C or higher on April 25?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-25 15:22
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-24 09:11
highest temperature in guangzhou on april 23 2026 27c	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-23 10:48
highest temperature in beijing on april 22 2026 24c	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-22 10:29
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	1	$24	25	+25	No	+$1	04-21 12:47
highest temperature in los angeles on april 20 2026 72 73f	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-21 01:31
highest temperature in tel aviv on april 20 2026 24c	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-20 16:56
highest temperature in wellington on april 20 2026 16c	1	$23	24	+24	No	+$0	04-20 06:24
highest temperature in tel aviv on april 19 2026 24c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-19 16:25
highest temperature in wellington on april 19 2026 16c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-19 08:49
highest temperature in shanghai on april 18 2026 22c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-18 08:50
highest temperature in tokyo on april 17 2026 17c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-17 09:52
highest temperature in guangzhou on april 16 2026 31c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-16 12:10
highest temperature in los angeles on april 15 2026 68 69f	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-16 04:23
highest temperature in tokyo on april 15 2026 23c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-15 09:12
highest temperature in dallas on april 14 2026 82forhigher	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-15 03:53
highest temperature in tel aviv on april 14 2026 31corhigher	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-14 16:30
highest temperature in wellington on april 14 2026 19c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-14 05:44
highest temperature in seoul on april 13 2026 20c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-13 08:57
highest temperature in wellington on april 12 2026 20c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-12 07:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 18:07:43	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on November 15?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x64ebf1…
11-13 07:57:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 13?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x060a79…
11-12 08:05:31	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on November 12?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8a6a4a…
11-11 08:13:54	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on November 11?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa7385b…
11-08 11:38:04	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on November 9?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe21f03…
11-07 10:53:43	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on November 7?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x75cc4f…
11-06 09:55:27	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on November 6?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7879c3…
11-05 00:24:15	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on November 5?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x1b6047…
11-04 12:26:57	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on November 4?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8f0fe9…
11-03 08:29:49	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on November 3?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x1ca903…
11-02 08:58:01	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on November 2?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x19b20a…
10-31 17:37:46	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on November 1?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x945add…
10-31 04:50:22	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xaa00ee…
10-30 08:23:58	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 30?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe3bdce…
10-29 17:31:07	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8bae16…
10-29 06:07:49	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 29?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa4e90f…
10-28 04:32:08	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on October 28?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8efdfb…
10-27 06:24:03	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 27?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xccfd13…
10-26 04:01:47	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 26?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x3b6b49…
10-25 12:23:21	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 25?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x6b0a9f…
10-24 06:42:42	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 24?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xf14a9c…
10-22 10:32:00	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on October 22?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x9d49cc…
10-20 03:55:11	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 20?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xb5b59f…
10-19 06:20:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on October 19?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x84cdf7…
10-18 05:39:41	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on October 18?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe11775…
10-17 07:14:33	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xb61192…
10-16 01:58:46	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on October 15?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7038be…
10-15 04:48:38	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on October 15?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8a9306…
10-14 04:58:46	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 14?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7694bd…
10-13 13:24:26	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8da550…
10-13 04:14:57	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on October 13?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7d6aab…
10-12 01:04:24	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 12?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7fba68…
10-11 01:01:07	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on October 10?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7bfe90…
10-08 04:42:14	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 8?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe1a4cb…
10-07 08:43:39	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 7?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xda9caf…
10-06 14:57:17	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on October 6?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc7ff84…
10-06 05:13:04	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 6?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xb5c1ad…
10-04 07:49:14	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on October 4?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x412bec…
10-03 00:45:27	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on October 2?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x6f9a98…
10-02 07:14:32	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc797e9…
10-02 03:07:23	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 1?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x86f196…
10-01 05:44:45	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 1?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xcf12af…
09-30 09:08:36	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on September 30?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xbfc93b…
09-29 06:31:36	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 29?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0xcc8757…
09-28 03:00:30	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on September 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2a628c…
09-27 09:26:24	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6037a7…
09-26 08:14:51	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on September 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7c9bf6…
09-25 01:38:53	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on September 25?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x61912e…
09-24 01:47:46	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on September 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd639b5…
09-23 05:08:55	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on September 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x60a19a…
09-22 10:11:01	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 22?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4c1a3d…
09-22 01:04:34	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on September 21?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7214d5…
09-21 06:25:09	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or below on September 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x08818b…
09-20 02:11:22	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on September 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf9f7f3…
09-19 05:37:52	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on September 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd3cd35…
09-18 09:46:54	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf12640…
09-18 01:02:40	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on September 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x03fdac…
09-17 00:53:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x90bbc3…
09-16 07:09:10	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on September 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf07118…
09-15 23:23:22	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on September 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3d63db…
09-15 01:01:45	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5ea6ea…
09-14 00:43:45	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on September 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0f57c7…
09-13 12:43:52	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on September 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaa1179…
09-12 01:13:00	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on September 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x556f46…
09-11 01:04:42	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on September 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x860650…
09-10 01:23:03	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on September 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd1c7b6…
09-09 00:49:18	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on September 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xde5fcf…
09-08 01:00:15	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xad2536…
09-07 09:54:09	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1e31fd…
09-07 01:37:34	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on September 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9f5a92…
09-06 17:29:09	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x928dda…
09-06 01:02:58	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on September 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x16d3b5…
09-05 08:45:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on September 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd00419…
09-04 08:08:25	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcde1c5…
09-03 01:03:46	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2ec117…
09-02 11:01:19	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd2bcf2…
09-01 01:16:43	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 31?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x445833…
08-30 00:06:12	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9d29b5…
08-29 05:40:10	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa7b91e…
08-28 01:21:42	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6fccf9…
08-27 01:05:43	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on August 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbec668…
08-26 01:05:06	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x58a3ba…
08-25 01:01:07	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdbbc83…
08-24 07:08:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on August 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x16458f…
08-23 00:59:07	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xed4136…
08-22 01:18:12	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x863ead…
08-21 01:11:58	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb1e7d1…
08-20 00:09:40	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc325bf…
08-19 00:14:19	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7a8768…
08-18 00:08:42	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf19627…
08-17 05:07:24	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd6a1d9…
08-16 01:35:24	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbd048c…
08-15 01:10:55	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on August 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4ff456…
08-14 01:14:18	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3b2d18…
08-13 00:09:46	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6708c7…
08-12 00:10:25	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 11?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbf62ac…
08-11 00:10:51	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc966a7…
08-10 00:14:48	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1fe109…
08-09 00:16:21	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on August 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe81bee…
08-08 00:13:27	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6f0b7c…