Determined-Prow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9.14K

Unrealized P&L

+$12

Hit rate

70.0%

Resolved

4,789

Trades

19,689

lifetime

Volume

$202.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$324

18 positions

First seen

2026-04-10

last 10-28 19:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 198 days

Categories

Other

82% 53% -$8,612

Crypto

13% 61% +$256

Sports

3% 55% -$784

Politics

1% 58% -$63

Tech

0% 83% +$62

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 156 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?	No	+72	$61	99¢	$71	+$10	10-12 23:06
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+53	$45	96¢	$51	+$6	10-13 16:48
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	No	+37	$31	96¢	$35	+$4	10-12 00:06
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?	No	+32	$28	99¢	$31	+$4	10-08 13:11
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?	No	+24	$22	100¢	$24	+$3	10-05 17:58
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	+19	$15	90¢	$17	+$2	10-16 14:47
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+15	$12	97¢	$15	+$2	10-13 16:34
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in October?	No	+15	$13	99¢	$14	+$2	10-15 11:17
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+20	$9	66¢	$13	+$4	10-27 11:53
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+25	$10	50¢	$13	+$3	10-25 07:53
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+24	$18	51¢	$12	-$5	10-19 09:18
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+18	$10	52¢	$10	$0	10-27 08:39
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+30	$5	22¢	$7	+$2	08-27 03:00
Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+36	$5	14¢	$5	$0	08-27 03:01
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+32	$5	14¢	$4	-$1	08-27 03:01
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+20	$10	2¢	$0	-$10	10-27 17:33
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+4	$3	1¢	$0	-$3	10-19 09:24
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+31	$10	0¢	$0	-$10	10-27 17:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	11	$5.4K	6,629	2,439	+4,190	LGD Gaming	-$3,364	06-02 13:15
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	26	$2.9K	1,597	1,597	+0	Bilibili Gaming	+$243	06-03 11:58
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	6	$2.8K	1,669	1,669	+0	T1	+$534	05-30 11:10
lol al blg 2026 06 08 game2	7	$2.8K	1,880	1,880	+0	Bilibili Gaming	+$973	06-08 11:19
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	5	$2.7K	1,560	1,560	+0	T1	+$459	05-30 12:18
lol gen kt 2026 06 13 game3	7	$2.5K	1,362	1,362	+0	Gen.G	+$269	06-13 09:13
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner	5	$2.3K	1,337	1,337	+0	Hanwha Life Esports	+$336	05-31 09:46
lol hle1 tsw 2026 07 02 game3	15	$2.2K	1,215	1,215	+0	Hanwha Life Esports	+$233	07-03 06:09
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner	3	$1.5K	814	814	+0	Gen.G	+$113	05-29 11:38
lol kt dk 2026 06 07 game2	15	$1.5K	988	988	+0	Dplus KIA	+$487	06-07 10:16
lol blg t1 2026 07 04	8	$1.4K	994	798	+196	Bilibili Gaming	+$27	07-04 11:26
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner	29	$1.4K	767	767	+0	Bilibili Gaming	+$128	06-03 10:04
lol hle1 g2 2026 07 05	7	$1.4K	736	736	+0	Hanwha Life Esports	+$116	07-05 08:44
itf isakova kubarev 2026 06 23	82	$1.3K	790	790	+0	Anna Kubareva	+$38	06-23 20:03
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner	2	$1.3K	968	968	+0	Team WE	+$667	06-01 11:12
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	9	$1.3K	1,380	0	+1,380	No	-$1,252	06-13 19:26
atp bellucc hanfman 2026 06 10	11	$1.2K	848	848	+0	Mattia Bellucci	+$457	06-10 12:08
lol blgj t1a 2026 06 09 game2	3	$1.2K	646	646	+0	T1 Academy	+$69	06-09 09:12
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	10	$1.2K	643	643	+0	Yes	+$119	07-29 18:04
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	2	$1.1K	628	628	+0	Team WE	+$128	06-01 11:48
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$1.0K	1,750	1,750	+0	No	+$162	07-11 06:11
lol t1 fur 2026 07 06 game2	8	$1.0K	545	545	+0	T1	+$44	07-06 08:54
lol t1 kc 2026 06 28 game2	17	$1.0K	740	740	+0	T1	+$82	06-29 05:29
lol tsw tes 2026 07 04 game1	28	$1.0K	1,723	0	+1,723	Team Secret Whales	-$1,034	07-05 03:27
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner	5	$1.0K	698	698	+0	Top Esports	+$385	05-31 13:07
itf nugroho back 2026 06 26	4	$982	599	599	+0	Priska Madelyn Nugroho	+$215	06-26 11:58
mlb atl cws 2026 06 11	9	$981	962	962	+0	Atlanta Braves	-$19	06-12 02:01
lol t1 gen 2026 06 14 game3	7	$951	727	727	+0	T1	+$151	06-14 10:08
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	4	$923	574	574	+0	Yes	+$223	06-28 20:58
wta cirstea raducan 2026 06 10	27	$913	607	607	+0	Emma Raducanu	+$300	06-12 14:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 19:07:25	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xea8e01…
10-28 18:10:10	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xf7c60c…
10-28 18:06:37	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xa1afeb…
10-28 17:05:44	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xfe93a2…
10-28 16:00:07	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0x78491d…
10-28 16:00:07	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x51a525…
10-28 15:46:53	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x8dc9fa…
10-28 15:11:14	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xc76970…
10-28 14:35:38	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	4	22¢	$1	0x9727f4…
10-28 13:01:50	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xccdff9…
10-28 12:46:02	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	6¢	$1	0x7623ec…
10-28 12:42:26	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$1	0x152a51…
10-28 12:03:26	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xedc369…
10-28 12:01:19	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xa801b6…
10-28 10:25:32	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 29?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x8b65ae…
10-28 10:15:32	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x8d0c2e…
10-28 10:15:31	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x743d65…
10-28 10:14:56	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0xb952b0…
10-28 10:11:35	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x732a30…
10-28 10:10:44	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 28?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xcb4880…
10-28 10:09:52	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xcf1fb9…
10-28 09:36:05	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0xe62f2f…
10-28 09:33:29	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xcb3420…
10-28 09:19:43	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xa14351…
10-28 09:19:41	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0xd76d67…
10-28 07:44:17	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	37¢	$0	0x3338b9…
10-28 07:17:26	Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $4.00 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x7819fd…
10-28 07:17:19	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	14¢	$10	0x55e8f5…
10-28 06:57:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	31	24¢	$8	0x3f1594…
10-28 06:52:55	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xc15c3b…
10-28 06:02:13	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x8a3995…
10-28 05:16:25	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x2cbafd…
10-28 04:11:04	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xaf940b…
10-28 03:40:58	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xb84807…
10-28 03:00:38	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x3d3b26…
10-28 02:33:44	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x9f177e…
10-28 02:30:42	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x7aeb34…
10-28 02:30:42	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	46¢	$1	0x42e7f5…
10-28 02:30:29	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x527c23…
10-28 02:10:38	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0xa6fb5e…
10-28 01:42:36	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xbc991a…
10-28 01:42:36	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	6	45¢	$2	0x1b3319…
10-28 01:35:53	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x0806e3…
10-28 01:13:27	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xc05ee6…
10-28 01:12:02	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x609579…
10-28 01:09:42	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x84431a…
10-28 01:05:26	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xdcb284…
10-28 01:05:26	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	13	5¢	$1	0x6c743c…
10-27 22:36:26	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x4f21ad…
10-27 21:00:11	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xa6579c…
10-27 20:23:35	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x2d9e9f…
10-27 19:44:35	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xea9185…
10-27 19:30:30	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xf9fa9d…
10-27 19:19:03	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x2e936a…
10-27 19:10:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x93b06a…
10-27 19:08:44	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	0	62¢	$0	0x031c35…
10-27 19:00:14	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x0a2d74…
10-27 18:45:54	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x790f43…
10-27 18:34:11	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xb00b22…
10-27 18:19:32	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0xb263e0…
10-27 18:19:32	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0x46f9d2…
10-27 18:06:20	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0xa8a531…
10-27 17:39:50	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0xa2c378…
10-27 17:33:03	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x4f5b22…
10-27 17:32:54	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x8585a5…
10-27 17:31:38	highest temperature in mexico city on october 29 2026 24c	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xe7132d…
10-27 17:11:23	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0xe07779…
10-27 17:11:21	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x088619…
10-27 17:10:21	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xd89bac…
10-27 17:00:27	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x29a3a4…
10-27 16:31:05	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x364e07…
10-27 15:39:11	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x84cfd4…
10-27 15:19:23	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x40f5f1…
10-27 15:19:02	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xf96fe9…
10-27 15:18:42	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x998d66…
10-27 15:17:32	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	15	17¢	$2	0x9b574f…
10-27 15:17:15	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	33	23¢	$8	0x91a313…
10-27 15:16:45	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	26	29¢	$8	0x91a13c…
10-27 15:15:56	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0x322d89…
10-27 15:15:32	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	25	30¢	$8	0x933666…
10-27 15:13:54	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xba2868…
10-27 15:13:48	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xa86767…
10-27 15:13:38	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x01edf7…
10-27 15:13:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xc8b4db…
10-27 15:03:39	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x6d25aa…
10-27 14:45:23	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0x0e1803…
10-27 14:44:38	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x931321…
10-27 14:40:03	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	21	35¢	$8	0xfc5ea4…
10-27 14:38:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	22	34¢	$8	0x525cb9…
10-27 14:38:32	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	24	31¢	$8	0x7f3d93…
10-27 14:37:57	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	29	26¢	$8	0x08b292…
10-27 14:35:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	26	29¢	$8	0x4da2b0…
10-27 14:28:08	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xc5724a…
10-27 14:27:21	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xfec162…
10-27 14:25:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x34eff6…
10-27 14:24:35	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$8	0xe36b0a…
10-27 14:20:15	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xdec8fc…
10-27 13:46:21	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0xfa2dc6…
10-27 13:24:35	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x0a4684…
10-27 13:21:11	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 28?	No	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xa21c9f…