Definitive-Ferret — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$39

Unrealized P&L

-$88

Hit rate

61.5%

Resolved

Trades

1,376

lifetime

Volume

$83.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$61

Open exposure

$426

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-07 22:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

55% 50% $-14

Crypto

23% 0% $-25

Politics

17% — —

Tech

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 188 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+878	$514	48¢	$426	$-88	06-24 20:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	4	$3.2K	1,608	1,608	+0	open	—	04-01 02:14
will silver si hit high 95 by end of march	56	$3.0K	1,694	1,276	+419	open	—	03-31 14:28
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	4	$2.8K	1,518	1,518	+0	open	—	03-27 19:59
will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	7	$2.7K	1,499	1,499	+0	open	—	06-22 12:56
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	3	$2.5K	1,328	1,328	+0	open	—	01-30 20:31
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	1	$2.4K	2,407	0	+2,407	open	—	02-03 20:31
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	2	$2.1K	1,077	1,076	+0	open	—	03-17 20:33
will gold gc hit high 5800 by end of february 759 378 429 713 662 579	2	$2.0K	1,011	1,011	+0	open	—	02-23 22:05
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	5	$2.0K	1,063	1,063	+0	open	—	04-29 19:40
si hit 150 high jan 2026	2	$1.9K	971	971	+0	open	—	01-29 15:28
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	1	$1.5K	0	1,559	-1,559	open	—	06-16 05:29
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	8	$1.5K	1,295	1,306	-10	open	—	03-17 21:48
will gold gc hit low 4200 by end of february 891 227 734 585 416 787 933 185 752 713 424	5	$1.5K	915	915	+0	open	—	02-14 14:59
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	1	$1.5K	1,467	0	+1,467	open	—	01-31 22:25
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	8	$1.4K	1,203	797	+407	open	—	04-21 21:16
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?	8	$1.4K	700	683	+17	open	—	04-28 19:16
will microstrategy announce holding 740k btc by february 28	3	$1.3K	1,232	230	+1,002	open	—	02-25 16:43
will bitcoin reach 79k on april 17	2	$1.3K	642	641	+0	open	—	04-18 02:54
will the us invade iran by march 31	5	$1.2K	390	2,410	-2,021	open	—	03-27 16:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	7	$1.1K	649	649	+0	open	—	06-29 18:44
will silver si hit low 65 by end of february 598 917 186 187 154 235 433 943	3	$1.1K	701	701	+0	open	—	02-20 18:46
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$1.0K	534	534	+0	open	—	02-25 22:14
us strikes iran by january 13 2026 771	2	$1.0K	518	518	+0	open	—	01-14 04:03
nicols maduro released from custody by january 9 2026	2	$1.0K	505	505	+0	open	—	01-07 12:12
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	2	$1.0K	505	505	+0	open	—	01-08 02:53
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	2	$1.0K	513	513	+0	open	—	02-19 00:32
will claude 5 be released on february 15 2026	1	$1000	1,001	0	+1,001	open	—	02-15 21:49
cilia flores released from custody by january 9 2026	21	$984	509	485	+25	open	—	01-08 09:24
spx opens up or down on march 18 2026	2	$897	0	2,000	-2,000	open	—	03-17 21:43
spx up or down on february 18 2026	4	$877	624	997	-374	open	—	02-17 21:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 20:49:34	will xauusd dip to 4000 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0xb00e37…
07-08 20:47:16	xagusd up or down on july 9 2026	Up	BUY	138	63¢	$87	0x955c48…
07-07 22:19:41	will xauusd reach 4400 in july 2026	No	BUY	397	76¢	$300	0x6278a9…
07-07 21:49:19	spcx above 150 on july 31 2026	No	BUY	83	40¢	$33	0x5272bd…
06-30 20:43:25	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x5dfcd9…
06-29 21:50:04	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	458	78¢	$357	0x2ce380…
06-29 18:44:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	559	99¢	$554	0xba0863…
06-29 18:44:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xf6aa12…
06-29 18:39:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$30	0xdba370…
06-29 18:39:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x7e81bb…
06-29 18:39:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$19	0x454d0b…
06-29 18:39:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x046377…
06-25 15:01:11	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	230	45¢	$104	0x74c52c…
06-25 15:01:02	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0xaf21c8…
06-25 14:59:52	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0x8f1936…
06-25 14:59:44	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0x293765…
06-25 14:59:37	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xa155fe…
06-25 14:59:28	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0x391ea8…
06-25 14:54:47	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0x882bf5…
06-25 14:52:01	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	244	8¢	$20	0xcd90f7…
06-24 20:41:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	57¢	$114	0x0bd5eb…
06-23 23:10:17	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	410	98¢	$401	0xed47c0…
06-23 22:15:19	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0xc175c6…
06-23 21:30:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	678	59¢	$400	0xe6feda…
06-22 12:56:25	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x99f2f0…
06-22 12:56:17	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	1,018	98¢	$1,000	0xb96d7c…
06-22 12:52:49	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xae3a92…
06-22 12:40:13	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xbbd246…
06-22 12:29:10	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	105	98¢	$103	0x450328…
06-22 11:34:55	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	340	98¢	$334	0xa30800…
06-21 16:36:11	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 total 6pt5	Under	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0xabc3e2…
06-17 20:02:28	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 btts	Yes	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0xe38b3a…
06-16 05:29:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	SELL	1,559	99¢	$1,546	0xa4751a…
06-16 00:41:52	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	0	68¢	$0	0x1e7094…
06-15 23:59:04	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x5ded76…
06-15 23:09:09	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	19	68¢	$13	0xfc61e0…
06-15 22:27:54	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	423	68¢	$287	0xc1c975…
06-13 12:10:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	709	44¢	$312	0xe1ae59…
06-11 21:02:27	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	BUY	168	52¢	$87	0x536bc6…
06-11 20:59:19	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	BUY	333	15¢	$50	0x5a46c7…
06-11 20:29:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	649	77¢	$500	0xc7949c…
06-08 17:35:07	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	117	61¢	$71	0xc1ad47…
06-06 19:34:25	ufc jun4 iwo 2026 06 06 totals 1pt5	Over	BUY	172	29¢	$50	0x72eb7e…
06-06 09:20:12	btc updown 15m 1780737300	Up	BUY	21	36¢	$8	0xbcea64…
06-06 09:20:12	btc updown 15m 1780737300	Up	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0xb6103c…
06-06 09:20:12	btc updown 15m 1780737300	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xa8b580…
06-06 09:20:12	btc updown 15m 1780737300	Up	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x692f81…
06-06 09:20:12	btc updown 15m 1780737300	Up	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x5c87ec…
06-06 09:20:12	btc updown 15m 1780737300	Up	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x590a85…
06-06 09:17:18	btc updown 15m 1780737300	Down	BUY	16	36¢	$6	0xe13df2…
06-06 09:17:18	btc updown 15m 1780737300	Down	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x922da0…
06-06 09:17:18	btc updown 15m 1780737300	Down	BUY	17	36¢	$6	0x7b50c7…
06-06 09:17:18	btc updown 15m 1780737300	Down	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x1200cc…
06-06 09:17:15	btc updown 15m 1780737300	Down	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x555428…
06-06 09:17:13	btc updown 15m 1780737300	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x9b1b07…
06-06 09:14:15	btc updown 15m 1780736400	Down	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xb30d34…
06-06 09:14:15	btc updown 15m 1780736400	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x5ea03d…
06-06 09:03:54	btc updown 15m 1780736400	Up	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0xf25409…
06-06 09:03:54	btc updown 15m 1780736400	Up	BUY	7	36¢	$3	0xc7266d…
06-06 09:03:54	btc updown 15m 1780736400	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xbd1fd9…
06-06 09:03:54	btc updown 15m 1780736400	Up	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x3db7c7…
06-06 09:02:27	btc updown 15m 1780736400	Down	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xfeeab4…
06-06 09:02:24	btc updown 15m 1780736400	Down	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x409088…
06-06 09:02:22	btc updown 15m 1780736400	Down	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x577c93…
06-06 09:02:21	btc updown 15m 1780736400	Down	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xfc93e8…
06-06 09:02:21	btc updown 15m 1780736400	Down	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x62dfea…
06-06 09:02:21	btc updown 15m 1780736400	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x43e440…
06-06 09:02:19	btc updown 15m 1780736400	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xbfe380…
06-06 08:50:46	btc updown 15m 1780735500	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x179541…
06-06 08:50:43	btc updown 15m 1780735500	Down	BUY	45	36¢	$16	0x6a7ed9…
06-06 08:50:42	btc updown 15m 1780735500	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x93daa4…
06-06 08:50:40	btc updown 15m 1780735500	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x4329a8…
06-06 08:46:28	btc updown 15m 1780735500	Up	BUY	54	36¢	$20	0xcbfd64…
06-06 08:45:48	btc updown 15m 1780735500	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x3f1a28…
06-06 08:45:46	btc updown 15m 1780735500	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x933ac6…
06-06 08:45:45	btc updown 15m 1780735500	Up	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0xbebdff…
06-06 08:45:43	btc updown 15m 1780735500	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x2a63b2…
06-06 08:30:45	btc updown 15m 1780734600	Up	BUY	16	36¢	$6	0x6f4d76…
06-06 08:30:43	btc updown 15m 1780734600	Up	BUY	38	36¢	$14	0x352941…
06-06 08:30:43	btc updown 15m 1780734600	Up	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x2313ed…
06-06 08:30:42	btc updown 15m 1780734600	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x4472fd…
06-06 08:26:19	btc updown 15m 1780733700	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x84f141…
06-06 08:26:19	btc updown 15m 1780733700	Down	BUY	18	36¢	$7	0x5e9376…
06-06 08:26:19	btc updown 15m 1780733700	Down	BUY	38	36¢	$14	0x01090b…
06-06 08:16:10	btc updown 15m 1780733700	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xef29f0…
06-06 08:16:10	btc updown 15m 1780733700	Up	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x4e38c6…
06-06 08:16:09	btc updown 15m 1780733700	Up	BUY	25	36¢	$9	0xfafc0b…
06-06 08:16:09	btc updown 15m 1780733700	Up	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xa24047…
06-06 08:16:09	btc updown 15m 1780733700	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x071af8…
06-06 08:16:09	btc updown 15m 1780733700	Up	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x01122f…
06-06 08:08:58	btc updown 15m 1780732800	Down	BUY	64	36¢	$23	0xe35a26…
06-06 08:08:58	btc updown 15m 1780732800	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xa7c179…
06-06 08:00:31	btc updown 15m 1780732800	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x41b558…
06-06 08:00:31	btc updown 15m 1780732800	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x05af55…
06-06 08:00:30	btc updown 15m 1780732800	Up	BUY	4	36¢	$1	0xf39867…
06-06 08:00:28	btc updown 15m 1780732800	Up	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x831d2f…
06-06 08:00:28	btc updown 15m 1780732800	Up	BUY	25	36¢	$9	0x1a6350…
06-06 08:00:25	btc updown 15m 1780732800	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xf9e426…
06-06 08:00:25	btc updown 15m 1780732800	Up	BUY	4	36¢	$1	0x63c662…
06-06 08:00:25	btc updown 15m 1780732800	Up	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x37d97e…