Dearest-Likelihood — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$902

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

22.2%

Resolved

740

Trades

2,365

lifetime

Volume

$9.89K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 10-20 18:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 95 days

Categories

Other

59% 25% -$654

Politics

26% 8% -$113

Crypto

15% 44% -$136

Sports

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 124 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	26	$408	483	483	+0	Yes	-$5	06-10 21:05
iran closes its airspace by june 15	21	$330	1,637	1,637	+0	Yes	-$22	06-07 10:47
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	23	$236	195	188	+7	No	-$6	06-10 23:08
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	30	$233	608	608	+0	Yes	-$2	06-07 10:05
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	15	$217	181	181	+0	Yes	-$1	06-11 06:59
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	16	$168	453	453	+0	No	-$7	06-10 21:39
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on September 27?	22	$161	166	124	+43	Yes	-$6	09-26 22:20
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 10?	26	$145	309	0	+309	Yes	-$22	08-10 03:14
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	14	$142	211	211	+0	Yes	-$2	06-10 19:44
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	11	$135	606	606	+0	Yes	-$4	06-09 00:01
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on September 26?	28	$131	143	117	+26	No	-$3	09-25 21:06
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 22?	15	$111	111	111	+0	No	-$9	09-21 18:18
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	9	$102	258	258	+0	Yes	-$2	06-09 01:32
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 29°C on September 8?	15	$95	114	46	+68	Yes	-$3	09-08 11:46
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	13	$93	276	276	+0	No	-$1	06-10 23:22
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 20?	17	$92	104	100	+4	No	-$8	09-20 03:12
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 22?	14	$91	96	94	+2	No	-$7	09-22 12:33
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	41	$83	811	811	+0	No	-$10	06-09 05:07
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 29?	15	$79	98	55	+43	Yes	-$11	09-28 16:09
Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	3	$79	40	40	+0	Down	+$1	09-04 19:33
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	10	$72	706	706	+0	No	-$6	06-08 19:56
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on July 19?	9	$71	62	62	+0	Yes	+$8	07-19 12:00
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on July 19?	11	$70	63	63	+0	No	+$8	07-19 16:38
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on September 8?	14	$69	115	21	+94	Yes	-$1	09-08 10:27
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 25?	12	$67	65	65	+0	No	-$7	09-24 19:18
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 16:20 UTC	12	$64	80	80	+0	Up	+$8	09-17 16:22
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 10?	13	$63	124	0	+124	No	-$20	08-09 20:51
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 25?	5	$63	80	40	+40	No	+$1	08-24 18:37
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on September 16?	15	$60	71	53	+18	Yes	-$14	09-16 11:11
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on September 28?	7	$58	39	39	+0	No	-$11	09-28 00:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 18:20:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xbd7b83…
10-20 18:20:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	38¢	$2	0x663211…
10-20 18:20:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x42d4d2…
10-20 18:11:47	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x5f6c0f…
10-20 18:11:47	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x5e5ced…
10-20 18:11:41	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0x494905…
10-20 18:08:18	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	SELL	7	45¢	$3	0x58d4c7…
10-20 18:08:18	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	SELL	3	45¢	$1	0x27c8b6…
10-20 18:05:32	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x960514…
10-20 18:00:03	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0x6fb3e0…
10-20 18:00:03	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x412773…
10-20 17:44:56	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x223ccc…
10-15 19:43:20	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	40	37¢	$15	0xd85c44…
10-15 19:04:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xe12f9f…
10-15 18:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x1298de…
10-15 18:50:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x432301…
10-15 18:48:35	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	SELL	10	53¢	$5	0xc5928b…
10-15 18:47:05	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xdb129c…
10-15 18:39:55	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xa8cfb8…
10-15 18:39:53	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xc4af4b…
10-15 18:30:44	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x955afd…
10-15 18:30:16	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x778894…
10-04 15:56:10	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xe0603e…
10-04 15:56:10	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	40¢	$4	0xd3c5c1…
10-04 15:56:10	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xa4fb8a…
10-04 15:56:10	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x55f3cc…
10-04 15:54:08	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:50 UTC	Up	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x8e07c2…
10-04 15:52:10	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	32¢	$1	0x18c831…
10-04 15:52:08	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xbd7766…
10-04 15:52:08	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	11	32¢	$4	0x8e3cb7…
10-04 15:52:08	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x55a34f…
10-04 15:52:08	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	32¢	$0	0x473a90…
10-04 15:50:47	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x29f0b6…
10-04 15:47:25	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	SELL	3	57¢	$2	0x2a5569…
10-04 15:46:32	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xf7430f…
10-04 15:45:02	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x826ff2…
10-04 15:36:25	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	25	27¢	$7	0xf774b0…
10-04 07:45:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	32¢	$0	0xe3ac56…
10-04 07:40:29	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x125f0e…
10-04 07:35:32	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 07:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xea641f…
10-04 07:26:38	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x77971c…
10-04 07:20:43	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 07:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x53a077…
10-04 07:20:41	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 07:20 UTC	Down	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x516253…
10-04 07:16:10	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x2fe8fc…
10-04 07:05:53	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 07:05 UTC	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x053a3a…
10-04 06:55:19	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 06:55 UTC	Down	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x27bf4e…
10-04 06:51:28	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 06:50 UTC	Down	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x870ce7…
10-04 06:46:20	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 06:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x10d09e…
10-04 06:36:46	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 06:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x6f8d68…
10-04 06:11:52	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 06:10 UTC	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x10799d…
10-04 05:41:17	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x79b0ba…
10-04 05:41:14	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:40 UTC	Down	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x96c695…
10-04 05:35:56	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xcb2141…
10-04 05:35:56	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 05:35 UTC	Down	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0xa70825…
10-04 04:56:38	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x6eee41…
10-04 04:56:38	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x4bcff7…
10-04 04:45:28	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xde4844…
10-04 03:55:55	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x028145…
10-04 03:46:13	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x8f40dd…
10-04 03:46:11	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	31¢	$0	0xa7379e…
10-04 03:41:08	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0xd7c135…
10-04 03:41:08	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0x8cced6…
10-04 03:41:07	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xed95eb…
10-04 03:34:53	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x4b3b0f…
10-04 03:34:49	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x73cb6f…
10-04 03:31:16	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xfaba66…
10-04 03:31:11	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x0ca20e…
10-04 03:31:04	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xad42b5…
10-04 03:20:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xd7efea…
10-04 03:20:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x1c13b8…
10-04 03:20:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	29¢	$0	0x0e6301…
10-04 03:15:43	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x67e752…
10-04 02:56:05	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x680a70…
10-04 02:56:04	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0xbebe10…
10-04 02:51:23	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xd3ad31…
10-04 02:45:37	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x022dee…
10-04 02:45:05	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0xab4b0c…
10-04 02:45:05	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0x6303e7…
10-04 02:31:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	32¢	$0	0xda8904…
10-04 02:31:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	32¢	$1	0x7307af…
10-04 02:26:53	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0xe7443c…
10-04 02:04:59	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x3838c9…
10-04 02:04:58	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xc33bfb…
10-04 02:00:56	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x7b052d…
10-04 01:34:55	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 01:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x9c0a2a…
10-04 01:34:55	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 01:35 UTC	Down	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0x39d60f…
10-04 01:21:34	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 01:20 UTC	Down	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0xf29888…
10-04 01:21:34	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 01:20 UTC	Down	BUY	2	31¢	$0	0x82550e…
10-04 01:15:23	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 01:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x4d561c…
10-04 01:00:40	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 01:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xbc8404…
10-04 01:00:28	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 01:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xbbd223…
10-04 00:25:43	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 00:25 UTC	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xbd7e5f…
10-04 00:21:28	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 00:20 UTC	Down	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0xda486f…
10-04 00:21:28	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 00:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x140273…
10-04 00:16:55	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 00:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x928596…
10-04 00:10:25	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 00:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xd2cc89…
10-04 00:10:25	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 00:10 UTC	Up	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x004daa…
10-04 00:00:50	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x09cc4d…
10-03 23:46:26	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x76665c…
10-03 23:40:40	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xfc5263…