Leading-Leprosy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18.9K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

48.0%

Resolved

104

Trades

412

lifetime

Volume

$213.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$519

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 06-08 07:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Politics

69% 30% -$13,271

Crypto

31% 61% -$5,498

Other

0% 0% -$104

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-08).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	10	$33.0K	30,815	30,815	+0	No	-$11,058	03-11 16:12
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	9	$30.6K	24,617	24,617	+0	Yes	+$12,937	03-01 20:00
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	12	$29.3K	18,393	18,393	+0	Yes	-$3,330	03-20 19:23
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	5	$14.4K	11,254	11,254	+0	Yes	+$1,717	02-28 07:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 15:00 UTC	5	$6.4K	10,290	32	+10,257	Up	-$6,405	02-15 15:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 14:45 UTC	1	$6.3K	6,507	0	+6,507	Down	+$201	02-15 14:50
iran strike on israel by february 28	4	$6.3K	3,541	3,541	+0	Yes	-$103	02-28 12:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-15 08:00 UTC	1	$6.2K	6,307	0	+6,307	Down	+$104	02-15 08:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 08:05 UTC	1	$6.1K	6,203	0	+6,203	Up	+$89	02-15 08:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 08:00 UTC	1	$6.0K	6,115	0	+6,115	Up	+$155	02-15 08:04
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	3	$4.7K	9,540	9,540	+0	No	-$2,750	04-07 23:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 07:50 UTC	1	$4.2K	4,215	0	+4,215	Down	+$46	02-15 07:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-15 07:30 UTC	1	$4.0K	4,084	0	+4,084	Up	+$44	02-15 07:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 07:35 UTC	3	$4.0K	4,041	0	+4,041	Up	+$55	02-15 07:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 05:30 UTC	2	$4.0K	4,044	0	+4,044	Up	-$61	02-15 05:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 05:40 UTC	1	$3.9K	3,987	0	+3,987	Up	+$88	02-15 05:44
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?	5	$3.6K	3,511	3,510	+0	Yes	-$45	02-15 07:56
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	16	$3.2K	8,944	0	+8,944	No	-$3,177	05-22 23:15
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	8	$2.6K	22,545	22,545	+0	No	-$305	01-31 23:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 01:05 UTC	6	$2.3K	1,271	1,267	+4	Down	+$89	02-18 01:10
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	5	$2.1K	6,939	6,939	+0	No	+$54	01-14 20:27
will israel strike lebanon on february 17 2026	19	$2.1K	8,939	9,299	-360	No	-$262	02-18 20:52
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-17 19:45 UTC	42	$1.6K	1,383	469	+913	Down	+$18	01-17 19:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 21:10 UTC	3	$1.4K	1,483	0	+1,483	Up	+$70	02-15 21:14
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?	5	$1.4K	7,730	7,730	+0	No	-$238	03-30 00:15
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	2	$1.3K	1,854	1,854	+0	No	-$685	03-11 16:12
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$1.3K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	-$710	03-31 02:06
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	6	$1.3K	2,690	2,690	+0	No	-$939	01-16 00:52
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	2	$1.3K	9,077	9,077	+0	No	-$714	02-12 02:05
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	7	$1.2K	798	798	+0	No	+$155	03-18 02:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 07:08:31	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	600	39¢	$234	0x6488e9…
06-08 07:08:31	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	429	39¢	$167	0x1055f4…
06-08 07:08:01	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	31	39¢	$12	0x9ba494…
06-08 07:06:19	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	49	39¢	$19	0xf470fd…
06-08 06:55:03	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	1	39¢	$0	0x7a92e0…
06-08 06:54:57	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	0	39¢	$0	0xaf15fa…
06-08 06:54:51	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	1	39¢	$0	0xcf68b0…
06-08 06:54:46	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	0	39¢	$0	0xcd91d7…
06-08 06:54:42	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	0	39¢	$0	0x89adb4…
06-08 06:53:42	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x391bd8…
06-08 06:53:16	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	129	39¢	$50	0xd95ddf…
05-28 13:56:44	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0x573fcb…
05-23 09:52:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x87212a…
05-22 23:15:43	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	582	35¢	$204	0xf4188f…
05-22 23:15:29	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xc4079c…
05-22 23:15:27	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	1,280	35¢	$448	0x05bcb3…
05-22 23:13:55	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x277191…
05-22 23:13:49	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	1,000	35¢	$350	0x5e1b1d…
05-22 23:13:46	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	17	35¢	$6	0x0bc8ed…
05-22 23:13:32	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xf2d235…
05-22 23:11:05	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	841	35¢	$294	0x545134…
05-22 23:09:16	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	31	35¢	$11	0x5bcaa2…
05-22 23:09:06	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	94	35¢	$33	0xb5b6d8…
05-22 23:07:10	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	134	35¢	$47	0xd8a3dd…
05-22 23:03:53	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	766	35¢	$268	0xf9b22c…
05-22 23:03:53	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	22	35¢	$8	0x915b76…
05-22 23:03:53	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	212	35¢	$74	0x440644…
05-22 22:53:30	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	2,764	36¢	$1,000	0x5d5c40…
05-22 22:07:54	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	1,161	36¢	$420	0x6a0d91…
05-22 22:07:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	442	95¢	$420	0x1b6692…
05-22 20:54:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	442	22¢	$97	0x02ecd3…
05-20 01:25:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	97	86¢	$83	0xf0ff73…
05-08 00:25:29	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	1,780	5¢	$84	0x05c6d4…
05-07 20:35:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	1,780	11¢	$194	0x51b148…
04-29 03:29:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	SELL	194	100¢	$194	0x6df12e…
04-22 22:01:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	194	61¢	$118	0xd7a45d…
04-09 00:45:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	6,578	0¢	$13	0x5b71ed…
04-08 21:30:31	ethereum above 2300 on april 9	Yes	SELL	1,719	7¢	$112	0xdea340…
04-07 23:46:15	ethereum above 2300 on april 9	Yes	BUY	1,805	34¢	$606	0x3b5003…
04-07 23:14:39	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7,155	8¢	$606	0xda98b5…
04-07 23:13:57	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	6,578	6¢	$394	0x9ddb5b…
04-07 23:03:25	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,385	17¢	$394	0x9bcd07…
04-05 12:04:29	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9,540	39¢	$3,750	0xf120b6…
04-03 18:59:29	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	2,632	19¢	$500	0x6a3215…
03-31 02:06:15	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	10,000	3¢	$300	0x2647b7…
03-30 01:43:48	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	10,000	10¢	$1,010	0x35113b…
03-30 00:15:46	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,449	3¢	$45	0x6a4fa4…
03-22 01:38:11	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,449	8¢	$109	0x96d067…
03-20 19:23:05	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	3,200	72¢	$2,304	0x68a526…
03-20 19:12:51	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,899	8¢	$235	0x181bbb…
03-20 18:37:01	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	1,124	73¢	$821	0xaf19e0…
03-19 01:38:37	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	280	79¢	$221	0xb0ca1c…
03-19 01:36:47	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	0	79¢	$0	0x9ad9a5…
03-19 01:36:43	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	3	79¢	$3	0xc18695…
03-19 01:35:25	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0xd99972…
03-19 01:34:43	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	2	79¢	$2	0x7e8e7b…
03-19 01:33:23	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	704	79¢	$556	0x4083a8…
03-18 02:06:31	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	SELL	177	82¢	$145	0x2388c1…
03-18 01:55:35	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	SELL	25	82¢	$20	0xde7953…
03-18 01:34:55	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	SELL	3	82¢	$3	0x29e5b4…
03-18 01:22:55	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0x4b883d…
03-18 01:12:57	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	SELL	270	82¢	$222	0x191c71…
03-18 01:09:29	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	SELL	313	82¢	$257	0x91db9d…
03-16 14:10:51	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	4,049	80¢	$3,254	0x0f0bf0…
03-16 14:10:13	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	1,276	78¢	$1,000	0x07fa58…
03-16 03:21:53	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,933	9¢	$172	0x995113…
03-15 13:55:57	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7,730	10¢	$800	0xb46555…
03-12 23:33:35	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	BUY	798	63¢	$500	0x50c3ee…
03-11 16:12:29	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	1,854	17¢	$315	0x43960f…
03-11 16:12:13	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	SELL	15,335	23¢	$3,461	0xe5bc5f…
03-11 09:08:31	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	SELL	5,112	26¢	$1,313	0xa2f400…
03-08 12:07:45	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	10,078	62¢	$6,210	0x84772f…
03-08 12:00:03	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	SELL	10,369	60¢	$6,210	0xacbcfd…
03-08 11:10:15	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	10,433	85¢	$8,833	0xf79084…
03-08 01:10:41	will iran strike israel on march 8	No	BUY	917	5¢	$50	0x04a629…
03-07 01:05:03	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	293	68¢	$200	0x8fdc44…
03-06 12:07:33	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	13,068	70¢	$9,083	0xbbd20f…
03-03 07:26:19	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	13,068	92¢	$12,073	0xeeeae0…
03-02 17:37:39	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	1,667	60¢	$1,000	0xe38fff…
03-02 13:36:47	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	2,079	72¢	$1,500	0x05e0a9…
03-02 08:57:55	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	1,458	69¢	$1,000	0x41580f…
03-02 05:29:07	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	1,629	61¢	$1,000	0x690436…
03-01 21:32:45	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	3,473	72¢	$2,500	0x0a4fea…
03-01 21:27:53	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	1,854	54¢	$1,000	0x81b8ae…
03-01 20:00:09	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	20,114	100¢	$20,073	0x8d6b46…
02-28 14:55:27	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	6,605	26¢	$1,717	0x1d3e84…
02-28 14:45:11	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	4,503	38¢	$1,717	0x6c3310…
02-28 14:18:11	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	10,059	47¢	$4,681	0x667e46…
02-28 14:16:33	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	2,519	40¢	$1,000	0xf600ba…
02-28 13:59:45	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	552	46¢	$256	0xe5c8ab…
02-28 13:57:39	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	1,031	48¢	$500	0x828333…
02-28 12:59:29	iran strike on israel by february 28	Yes	SELL	2,141	87¢	$1,854	0xf8eeaf…
02-28 12:58:55	iran strike on israel by february 28	Yes	SELL	1,400	88¢	$1,225	0x2d7259…
02-28 12:55:09	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	2,189	9¢	$200	0x5f07a3…
02-28 10:08:53	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	1,661	30¢	$500	0x0c3b0f…
02-28 08:07:25	iran strike on israel by february 28	Yes	BUY	2,051	98¢	$2,000	0x157388…
02-28 08:07:11	iran strike on israel by february 28	Yes	BUY	1,489	79¢	$1,182	0x33daa6…
02-28 07:36:21	will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	2,909	2¢	$50	0x37ae04…
02-28 07:32:27	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	SELL	7,325	100¢	$7,289	0xd0ea7b…
02-28 07:07:35	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	2,123	1¢	$23	0x896cd2…