Defiant-Conga — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$652

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

34.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.35K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$56

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 05-19 12:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 34 days

Categories

Other

49% 14% -$8

Politics

48% 27% -$605

Tech

2% 50% -$10

Sports

1% 0% -$30

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-19).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
gc hit 5500 high jan 2026	5	$439	680	545	+135	No	+$379	01-29 09:52
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$400	1,212	0	+1,212	Yes	-$400	03-29 19:14
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	1	$200	1,343	0	+1,343	No	-$200	02-20 07:37
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?	1	$200	583	0	+583	Yes	+$383	02-20 07:38
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	2	$180	157	157	+0	Yes	+$30	01-14 19:23
will the us invade venezuela by march 31 2026 255	1	$150	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$150	01-06 07:16
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	1	$100	317	0	+317	No	-$100	01-22 18:57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	1	$100	526	0	+526	No	-$100	03-29 19:21
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	1	$100	736	0	+736	No	-$100	01-22 18:58
Iran leadership change by April 30?	1	$100	333	0	+333	No	-$100	03-24 08:00
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1	$100	111	0	+111	No	+$11	03-29 15:09
bank of japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$60	4,078	0	+4,078	No	-$60	01-22 19:05
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$50	6,250	0	+6,250	No	-$50	04-02 07:51
efl ars mnc 2026 03 22 mnc win	1	$50	158	0	+158	Yes	+$108	03-22 16:29
us strikes iran by february 2 2026	1	$50	257	0	+257	No	-$50	01-30 10:58
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$50	625	0	+625	No	-$50	01-07 16:08
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$50	156	0	+156	No	-$50	04-02 07:54
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$50	625	0	+625	Yes	-$50	01-07 11:55
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$50	5,000	0	+5,000	No	-$50	04-02 07:51
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	1	$50	156	0	+156	No	-$50	01-22 19:00
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	1	$50	89	0	+89	No	+$39	03-23 04:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	1	$50	154	0	+154	No	-$50	04-11 23:14
googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 04 2026 2pt64	2	$50	829	0	+829	Yes	-$50	01-29 13:15
qcom quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 04 2026 3pt39	1	$50	455	0	+455	Yes	-$50	01-22 19:12
will claude 5 not be released by february 28 2026	1	$50	60	0	+60	Yes	+$10	02-06 18:23
f1 australian grand prix winner russell 2026 03 07	1	$30	103	0	+103	Yes	-$30	03-07 13:00
amzn quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 05 2026 1pt95	1	$30	375	0	+375	No	+$345	01-29 13:18
nyt quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 04 2026 0pt88	1	$30	279	0	+279	Yes	-$30	01-29 13:17
aapl quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 29 2026 2pt67	1	$30	346	0	+346	Yes	-$30	01-29 13:14
v quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 29 2026 3pt14	1	$30	476	0	+476	Yes	-$30	01-29 13:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-19 12:42:17	Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 0 - 0 Manchester City FC?	Yes	BUY	233	4¢	$10	0x004b8a…
05-19 12:41:53	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x6d820c…
04-11 23:14:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	154	32¢	$50	0xd324dc…
04-03 03:26:53	will the us lose between 0 and 50k jobs in march	Yes	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0x804855…
04-02 07:54:59	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	156	32¢	$50	0xc3b60d…
04-02 07:51:47	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6,250	1¢	$50	0x51807a…
04-02 07:51:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	1¢	$50	0x4c15bf…
03-31 17:15:51	Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	1,556	1¢	$20	0x6874f9…
03-29 19:21:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	526	19¢	$100	0xff8a77…
03-29 19:14:52	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	909	33¢	$300	0x7ef7e9…
03-29 15:09:38	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	303	33¢	$100	0xc93e67…
03-29 15:09:24	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xb896a4…
03-24 08:00:01	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	333	30¢	$100	0x5434f4…
03-23 04:08:49	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0x93ddb8…
03-22 16:29:31	efl ars mnc 2026 03 22 mnc win	Yes	BUY	158	32¢	$50	0x43a8f0…
03-07 13:00:21	f1 australian grand prix winner russell 2026 03 07	No	BUY	103	29¢	$30	0xcbb572…
02-28 20:32:33	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	217	5¢	$10	0xf3b1c2…
02-28 07:12:33	will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by march 15	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x75a4eb…
02-20 07:38:00	US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	583	34¢	$200	0x016d0f…
02-20 07:37:16	us strikes iran by february 24 2026	Yes	BUY	1,343	15¢	$200	0x2ccdd6…
02-13 18:15:37	epl wol ars 2026 02 18 wol	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x7ccb77…
02-13 04:23:15	panw quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 12 2026 0pt94	No	BUY	182	11¢	$20	0xc47a3a…
02-13 04:22:51	gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	Yes	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0xdd1a60…
02-06 18:27:21	bkng quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 18 2026 48pt5	No	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xff45ad…
02-06 18:26:43	csco quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 11 2026 1pt02	No	BUY	222	9¢	$20	0xb4b38d…
02-06 18:25:39	ko quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 10 2026 0pt56	No	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0xf39921…
02-06 18:24:59	will silver si hit high 120 by end of february 431 947 594 173 652 316	Yes	BUY	243	8¢	$20	0x87783f…
02-06 18:23:45	will claude 5 not be released by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0xd5b6de…
02-03 19:20:22	efl ars cfc 2026 02 03 cfc win	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x9cef9b…
02-03 07:39:50	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0x314811…
02-01 10:17:00	us strikes iran by february 4 2026	Yes	BUY	371	5¢	$20	0xcf7347…
02-01 10:16:34	will the government shutdown last 10 days or more 772 652	Yes	BUY	192	13¢	$25	0x2ad1c8…
01-30 10:58:30	us strikes iran by february 2 2026	Yes	BUY	257	19¢	$50	0xc12af5…
01-29 13:18:02	amzn quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 05 2026 1pt95	No	BUY	375	8¢	$30	0x05216c…
01-29 13:17:42	nyt quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 04 2026 0pt88	No	BUY	279	11¢	$30	0x8782c5…
01-29 13:15:00	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 04 2026 2pt64	No	BUY	600	5¢	$30	0x6a3fa1…
01-29 13:14:22	v quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 29 2026 3pt14	No	BUY	476	6¢	$30	0x57cb00…
01-29 13:14:14	aapl quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 29 2026 2pt67	No	BUY	346	9¢	$30	0x8d081a…
01-29 09:52:20	gc hit 5500 high jan 2026	Yes	SELL	7	75¢	$5	0xdea8ad…
01-29 09:51:18	gc hit 5500 high jan 2026	Yes	SELL	45	75¢	$34	0x4a64f3…
01-29 09:51:18	gc hit 5500 high jan 2026	Yes	SELL	50	75¢	$38	0x09a6c6…
01-29 09:51:16	gc hit 5500 high jan 2026	Yes	SELL	443	75¢	$333	0x2d073b…
01-27 06:00:55	gc hit 5500 high jan 2026	Yes	BUY	680	4¢	$30	0xbde4a2…
01-22 19:13:16	googl quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 04 2026 2pt64	No	BUY	229	9¢	$20	0x2ec343…
01-22 19:12:56	cof quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 22 2026 4pt17	No	BUY	201	10¢	$20	0xf28411…
01-22 19:12:44	moga quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 23 2026 2pt19	No	BUY	135	15¢	$20	0x1dd0ba…
01-22 19:12:22	qcom quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 04 2026 3pt39	No	BUY	455	11¢	$50	0x652d84…
01-22 19:11:58	tsla quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 28 2026 0pt45	No	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x7bd180…
01-22 19:06:20	bank of japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	85	24¢	$20	0x2b12f7…
01-22 19:05:38	bank of japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	4,078	1¢	$60	0x4cbe58…
01-22 19:00:40	trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	Yes	BUY	156	32¢	$50	0x09bc5c…
01-22 18:58:18	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	736	14¢	$100	0xfd7bb8…
01-22 18:57:38	Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	317	32¢	$100	0xa566e5…
01-19 20:04:52	Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0x1377f6…
01-14 19:23:58	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	SELL	157	67¢	$105	0x24131d…
01-07 16:08:21	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	625	8¢	$50	0xfcb6f8…
01-07 16:07:21	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	BUY	157	48¢	$75	0x3b2630…
01-07 11:55:01	will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	625	8¢	$50	0x28c8c4…
01-06 09:42:19	cl up or down on january 6 2026	Up	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xefffec…
01-06 07:16:29	will the us invade venezuela by march 31 2026 255	Yes	BUY	1,000	15¢	$150	0xca291b…