Thoughtful-Obstacle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$95

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

34.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$198

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-24

last 05-10 04:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Politics

63% 12% -$46

Other

25% 10% -$31

Crypto

9% 12% -$11

Tech

4% 0% -$7

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-10).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes		-208	-$5	1¢	$-3	+$2	05-10 04:32
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		+63	$5	2¢	$1	-$4	05-10 04:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	2	$34	50	50	+0	No	+$24	03-27 11:45
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$26	13,000	0	+13,000	Yes	-$26	03-24 19:31
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	2	$13	29	29	+0	No	+$2	03-28 15:52
crude oil all time high by march 31	3	$13	358	303	+56	No	+$1	03-25 10:12
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	2	$7	132	0	+132	No	-$7	03-28 16:05
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	1	$5	0	208	-208	open	—	05-10 04:32
will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	1	$5	50	0	+50	Yes	-$5	03-27 12:16
will iran strike lebanon in march	1	$5	5,000	0	+5,000	Yes	-$5	03-24 19:44
will any eu country strike iran by march 31	1	$5	294	0	+294	No	-$5	03-24 19:39
bitcoin above 62k on march 25	1	$5	1,158	0	+1,158	Yes	-$5	03-24 19:33
will gold gc hit high 5400 by end of march	1	$5	294	0	+294	No	-$5	03-24 19:36
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	1	$5	31	0	+31	No	-$5	03-24 19:50
will iran strike syria in march	1	$5	58	0	+58	No	-$5	03-24 19:45
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1	$5	21	0	+21	No	-$5	03-24 19:19
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$5	71	0	+71	Yes	-$5	03-24 19:52
will india strike pakistan by march 31	1	$5	334	0	+334	No	-$5	03-24 19:54
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$5	17	0	+17	Yes	-$5	03-24 19:26
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	1	$5	56	0	+56	No	-$5	03-24 19:24
iran leadership change by march 31	1	$5	71	0	+71	No	-$5	03-24 19:31
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$5	63	0	+63	open	—	05-10 04:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 13:35 UTC	2	$4	4	4	+0	Up	+$2	03-27 13:39
donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 200plus	1	$4	369	0	+369	No	-$4	03-27 23:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 13:40 UTC	3	$3	45	0	+45	Up	-$3	03-27 13:43
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	1	$2	57	0	+57	No	-$2	03-27 12:24
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	1	$2	145	0	+145	Yes	-$2	03-27 12:21
bitcoin above 82k on march 25	1	$1	1,250	0	+1,250	No	-$1	03-24 20:08
will israel conduct military action in greater beirut on march 26 2026	1	$1	34	0	+34	No	-$1	03-27 21:24
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	1	$1	54	0	+54	Yes	-$1	03-27 12:49
will mrbeasts next video get between 62 and 65 million views on day 3	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	-$1	03-24 19:34
bitcoin up or down march 27 2026 8am et	1	$1	23	0	+23	Down	-$1	03-27 12:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-10 04:32:38	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	8¢	$5	0x08353f…
05-10 04:32:01	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	208	3¢	$5	0xff9101…
03-28 16:14:17	will trump say khamenei this week march 29	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x97a821…
03-28 16:06:37	will israel take military action in gaza on march 26 2026	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0x151ce0…
03-28 16:05:23	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	BUY	60	4¢	$2	0xc2bf8e…
03-28 15:52:23	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	29	26¢	$7	0x83dc4f…
03-28 05:53:43	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	29	18¢	$5	0x783bff…
03-27 23:11:59	donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 200plus	Yes	BUY	369	1¢	$4	0x161740…
03-27 21:24:27	will israel conduct military action in greater beirut on march 26 2026	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x5b1ca1…
03-27 13:52:59	bitcoin up or down march 27 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xfff665…
03-27 13:52:59	bitcoin up or down march 27 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x9c968e…
03-27 13:52:59	bitcoin up or down march 27 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x3a4a25…
03-27 13:52:57	bitcoin up or down march 27 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xe822fc…
03-27 13:52:55	bitcoin up or down march 27 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xd03f0e…
03-27 13:52:53	bitcoin up or down march 27 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x7dc575…
03-27 13:52:53	bitcoin up or down march 27 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x21abaf…
03-27 13:52:49	bitcoin up or down march 27 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	27	1¢	$0	0x86cfb9…
03-27 13:52:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 13:50 UTC	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xfaef76…
03-27 13:49:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xef3396…
03-27 13:43:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 13:40 UTC	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xc65229…
03-27 13:43:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 13:40 UTC	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x376e9c…
03-27 13:42:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 13:40 UTC	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xc1f347…
03-27 13:39:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 13:35 UTC	Up	SELL	4	83¢	$3	0x2c2c71…
03-27 13:36:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 13:35 UTC	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x2c3f57…
03-27 13:14:47	will elon musks net worth be at least 710b on march 31	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x6f2cb2…
03-27 12:55:03	will trump talk to ursula von der leyen in march 993	No	BUY	796	0¢	$1	0x77d12b…
03-27 12:51:33	bitcoin up or down march 27 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x52c274…
03-27 12:50:03	will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	119	1¢	$1	0x8cee74…
03-27 12:49:55	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	54	2¢	$1	0x6771d0…
03-27 12:29:19	will israel take military action in gaza on march 21 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x230bca…
03-27 12:24:27	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	BUY	57	4¢	$2	0xb475b4…
03-27 12:21:37	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	No	BUY	145	1¢	$2	0xd0260a…
03-27 12:16:59	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x3efd07…
03-27 11:45:27	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	Yes	SELL	50	58¢	$29	0x1914ad…
03-25 10:12:31	crude oil all time high by march 31	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0xc68e7a…
03-24 20:23:27	crude oil all time high by march 31	Yes	SELL	303	2¢	$7	0x614db3…
03-24 20:08:41	bitcoin above 82k on march 25	Yes	BUY	1,250	0¢	$1	0x0d05a2…
03-24 20:01:27	crude oil all time high by march 31	Yes	BUY	303	2¢	$5	0x53baf0…
03-24 19:54:13	will india strike pakistan by march 31	Yes	BUY	334	1¢	$5	0x6e262c…
03-24 19:52:37	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x35c20a…
03-24 19:50:45	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x54aa2e…
03-24 19:45:31	will iran strike syria in march	Yes	BUY	58	9¢	$5	0xaf80ae…
03-24 19:44:47	will iran strike lebanon in march	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0xa694c8…
03-24 19:39:35	will any eu country strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	294	2¢	$5	0x6e2d77…
03-24 19:38:23	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xc503b7…
03-24 19:36:33	will gold gc hit high 5400 by end of march	Yes	BUY	294	2¢	$5	0x471708…
03-24 19:34:35	will mrbeasts next video get between 62 and 65 million views on day 3	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xbb02bb…
03-24 19:33:41	bitcoin above 62k on march 25	No	BUY	1,158	0¢	$5	0x2c65fc…
03-24 19:31:31	iran leadership change by march 31	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x7ec571…
03-24 19:31:03	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0xf35611…
03-24 19:26:55	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xf8b104…
03-24 19:24:27	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x688f1d…
03-24 19:21:31	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x40b76c…
03-24 19:19:47	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x2237ee…
03-24 18:36:53	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	10,500	0¢	$21	0xc3af89…