Likely-Shield — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.1%

Resolved

433

Trades

823

lifetime

Volume

$11.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-15

last 10-19 17:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 116 days

Categories

Other

75% 84% +$3

Crypto

20% 84% +$1

Politics

3% 67% +$0

Tech

1% 60% +$0

Sports

1% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 21?	3	$90	45	45	+0	No	+$0	07-20 22:10
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on October 12?	3	$88	44	44	-0	No	+$0	10-12 09:38
bitcoin above 70k on july 21 2026	3	$81	40	40	+0	No	$0	07-20 14:27
Will VOX (VOX) win the Andalusia regional election?	4	$78	39	39	+0	No	+$0	05-16 21:16
ethereum above 1700 on july 24 2026	5	$76	38	38	+0	Yes	$0	07-24 13:16
Will Pedri win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$74	37	37	+0	No	+$0	07-19 20:08
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	4	$71	36	36	+0	No	+$0	07-20 21:34
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?	3	$69	35	35	+0	No	+$0	07-27 02:28
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	2	$69	35	35	+0	No	$0	07-19 05:09
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 29?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-29 03:14
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on July 19?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	+$0	07-19 05:10
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 13?	2	$68	34	34	+0	Yes	$0	10-13 15:04
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 114°F or higher on July 22?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-22 13:49
will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	2	$67	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-30 06:28
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on July 31?	2	$67	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-30 20:53
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 12?	2	$66	33	33	+0	No	$0	10-11 16:49
bitcoin above 70k on july 27 2026	2	$66	33	33	+0	No	+$0	07-26 09:16
bitcoin above 60k on july 26 2026	2	$65	33	33	+0	Yes	+$0	07-26 07:22
Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day?	2	$65	33	33	+0	open	—	10-11 03:28
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?	2	$65	32	32	+0	No	+$0	07-26 16:13
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on July 28?	2	$63	32	32	+0	No	+$0	07-28 10:32
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C or below on July 23?	5	$63	31	31	+0	No	$0	07-22 14:43
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 21?	2	$62	31	31	+0	No	+$0	07-21 12:53
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26?	3	$62	31	31	+0	Yes	+$0	05-26 08:33
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 24?	4	$62	31	31	+0	No	+$0	07-23 07:18
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 29?	2	$61	31	31	+0	No	+$0	07-29 03:16
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 21?	2	$61	31	31	+0	No	$0	07-21 04:49
will bitcoin dip to 61k on july 23	3	$59	29	29	+0	No	$0	07-23 21:17
bitcoin above 70k on july 30 2026	2	$55	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-29 23:22
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 27?	3	$55	28	28	+0	No	$0	07-26 20:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 17:04:41	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xfc133c…
10-18 18:05:06	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on October 19?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xb1fb8a…
10-16 10:50:19	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 16?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x3d6cbc…
10-13 15:04:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 13?	Yes	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0xcf82d7…
10-13 09:28:14	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x669385…
10-12 09:38:37	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on October 12?	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0x75e16b…
10-12 03:18:00	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on October 12?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x933c2d…
10-11 22:04:12	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on October 12?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x094d28…
10-11 16:49:28	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 12?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x942640…
10-11 16:35:19	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 12?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xa2b6f9…
10-11 03:28:33	Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$32	0xadad1e…
10-10 06:54:30	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on October 10?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xe4c285…
10-10 01:16:53	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 9?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0x98f072…
10-02 03:26:12	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on October 3?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x85657e…
10-01 22:56:54	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on October 2?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xd245b6…
10-01 06:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on October 1?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xf50a94…
09-28 04:01:51	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8bf3e3…
09-23 02:45:43	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C or higher on September 23?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc3c48f…
09-23 00:58:08	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7518ac…
09-22 23:24:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 23?	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x4f0d9e…
09-22 17:48:10	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C or higher on September 23?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe007bf…
09-22 14:24:24	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C or higher on September 23?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x75638b…
09-21 23:08:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x880950…
09-19 07:40:09	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on September 19?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x78c6a7…
09-18 02:29:13	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on September 18?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x73f817…
09-17 16:32:46	Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$32	0xdf6863…
09-13 03:28:57	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on September 13?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x951a86…
09-11 02:42:03	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on September 11?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x2be46b…
09-10 20:32:54	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on September 11?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x0718cc…
09-07 13:53:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 8?	Yes	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xc12a23…
09-06 13:48:13	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C or higher on September 7?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xf78407…
09-06 06:56:00	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C or below on September 7?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0xe2c2e2…
09-05 23:08:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 August 31-September 6?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x08a251…
09-05 05:10:48	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on September 5?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x693d9c…
09-05 04:15:48	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on September 5?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xacc8c8…
09-04 19:53:55	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on September 5?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xa975da…
09-04 19:27:06	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on September 5?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x5049d2…
09-04 12:57:13	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or higher on September 5?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xe354cc…
09-04 05:31:57	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on September 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa53436…
09-04 01:25:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 4?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x879b42…
09-03 06:37:28	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 3?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x6c199c…
09-03 01:17:34	will bitcoin reach 80k on september 2 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x4bb944…
09-02 21:43:30	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on September 3?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x8b1bd1…
09-02 15:20:24	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 2?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xc13c47…
09-02 10:56:48	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xaec70a…
09-02 08:22:12	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on September 2?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x1e5e37…
09-01 10:32:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 1?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x02a9d3…
09-01 05:52:13	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on September 1?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x5ce96a…
08-31 04:29:27	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 31?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x32ac78…
08-31 01:36:27	Will Tropical Storm Saudel peak as a "Violent Typhoon"?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x7a97ca…
08-30 17:01:00	Gemini 4.0 released by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xe62999…
08-30 12:58:49	ethereum above 2600 on august 30 2026	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x73eb92…
08-30 07:03:21	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 30?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xf07c2b…
08-29 20:00:03	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on August 30?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x2b94e8…
08-29 08:05:52	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on August 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0553df…
08-29 07:11:06	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 37°C on August 29?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xfeb090…
08-28 10:12:36	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 28?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa7bfae…
08-27 10:45:24	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C or below on August 28?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x33fe44…
08-27 08:27:51	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on August 27?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x2c7cd0…
08-27 03:18:27	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xb560ee…
08-26 18:31:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 27?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x28bacf…
08-26 15:52:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 27?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$23	0xf5d823…
08-25 14:05:36	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb23c44…
08-25 10:44:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xc5432e…
08-25 02:17:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on August 25?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xcc1203…
08-24 21:54:55	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 25?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x6ceef7…
08-24 18:19:12	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on August 25?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x5acc7d…
08-24 12:47:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 24?	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x9e5a77…
08-24 05:28:09	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C or higher on August 24?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x225d51…
08-23 18:39:37	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or below on August 24?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x940104…
08-14 06:22:36	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or higher on August 14?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x7aef5a…
08-13 21:59:06	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 14?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xec0b22…
08-13 16:49:16	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xfc56f6…
08-13 09:17:58	ethereum above 1700 on august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xd14bad…
08-13 06:18:48	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on August 13?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x8d424a…
08-13 05:33:06	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x131cfe…
08-12 21:37:25	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C or below on August 13?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x6c95f4…
08-12 05:39:24	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C or below on August 12?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xb11556…
08-12 04:13:52	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 12?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xf42ef5…
08-12 00:09:36	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 12?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x6c7675…
08-11 15:00:03	Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa8e22c…
08-11 13:59:54	Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on August 11?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xc656d4…
08-10 23:39:46	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on August 11?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x797ab8…
08-10 20:25:31	will ethereum reach 2050 on august 10	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x5ea387…
08-10 14:46:42	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 11?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x991d33…
08-10 11:17:16	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on August 10?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x56cd6f…
08-09 17:59:57	will bitcoin reach 70k august 3 9 2026	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x01e85f…
08-09 09:45:48	bitcoin above 60k on august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xae2e7b…
08-09 05:09:27	ethereum above 2300 on august 10 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xea8788…
08-09 01:22:55	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 9?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x3b4003…
08-08 18:19:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C or below on August 9?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x0cb4f4…
08-08 07:52:27	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 8?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xabe927…
08-08 02:02:01	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 8?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x678b86…
08-07 21:34:46	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 8?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x0d1e5b…
08-07 17:57:18	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 8?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x420196…
08-07 14:20:22	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on August 8?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xe065f0…
08-07 08:30:52	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 41°C or higher on August 8?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x94d154…
08-06 07:06:12	bitcoin above 62k on august 6 2026	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x58fe92…
08-06 04:04:59	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on August 6?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x05ff86…
08-05 22:43:20	will trump say police officer during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421451	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x93e382…