Lone-Beginning — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

25.2%

Resolved

Trades

213

lifetime

Volume

$7.51K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

$95

1 position

First seen

2026-03-19

last 06-22 09:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

70% — —

Politics

27% 20% $-1

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No		+100	$94	95¢	$95	+$1	06-22 09:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	7	$392	402	402	+0	open	—	03-20 05:50
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	5	$337	176	176	+0	open	—	04-02 19:37
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	7	$322	286	286	+0	open	—	04-27 09:35
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 220 239	2	$220	115	115	+0	open	—	03-26 10:21
will trn cm t be the next president of vietnam	2	$218	111	111	+0	open	—	03-19 19:01
will the us invade iran by march 31	2	$208	121	121	+0	open	—	03-27 09:19
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	2	$203	139	139	+0	open	—	03-27 13:49
military action against iran ends on march 28 2026	3	$200	102	102	+0	open	—	03-26 01:12
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	3	$200	110	110	+0	open	—	03-25 14:49
will solana dip to 60 in march 2026	3	$184	94	94	+0	open	—	03-28 13:18
elon musk of tweets march 2026 1240 1279	2	$183	93	93	+0	open	—	03-29 06:03
will polymarket mindshare hit 90	3	$183	93	93	+0	open	—	03-29 01:13
will nicolai hojgaard win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$170	86	86	+0	open	—	04-03 23:05
will ludvig aberg win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$169	90	90	+0	open	—	04-05 15:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	7	$169	225	225	+0	No	$-0	05-10 08:00
will scottie scheffler win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$166	89	89	+0	open	—	04-12 01:14
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	3	$162	87	87	+0	open	—	04-24 23:45
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	3	$162	87	87	+0	open	—	04-24 04:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	5	$160	82	82	+0	No	+$0	05-08 07:38
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	2	$159	81	81	+0	open	—	04-29 15:49
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	3	$159	86	86	+0	open	—	04-23 15:34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	3	$158	83	83	+0	No	$-0	05-01 08:53
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$158	80	80	+0	open	—	05-07 01:47
will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	2	$157	80	80	+0	open	—	04-21 10:09
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	4	$154	84	84	+0	open	—	04-09 07:25
will anish giri win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	3	$154	79	79	+0	open	—	04-09 21:55
will viktor hovland win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$154	78	78	+0	open	—	04-08 03:32
will robert macintyre win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$154	79	79	+0	open	—	04-05 19:57
will min woo lee win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$154	79	79	+0	open	—	04-07 04:06
will javokhir sindarov win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	3	$153	79	79	+0	open	—	04-10 15:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 09:27:32	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	80	94¢	$75	0x56123d…
06-22 09:27:32	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x00a951…
05-19 05:23:48	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	28	95¢	$27	0xba6bb3…
05-19 05:23:46	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x6c19a0…
05-18 22:25:17	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xc57709…
05-13 06:37:47	Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	8¢	$2	0x4073dc…
05-13 03:46:39	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	70	97¢	$68	0x645a96…
05-13 00:44:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	67	97¢	$65	0xfd08d1…
05-13 00:44:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x932bbf…
05-12 13:58:51	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	42	95¢	$40	0xf83db7…
05-12 13:58:51	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	33	95¢	$31	0x7c4080…
05-12 09:26:52	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	75	95¢	$71	0x92a79e…
05-11 17:33:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x46c293…
05-11 15:45:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x3eb435…
05-10 15:41:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	192	1¢	$3	0x6f9e75…
05-10 12:32:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	192	1¢	$2	0x40df4c…
05-10 08:00:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	131	4¢	$5	0xf33c0d…
05-10 08:00:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	4¢	$0	0xa0b666…
05-10 05:37:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	4¢	$1	0x93f324…
05-10 05:37:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	4¢	$2	0x882aef…
05-10 05:37:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	4¢	$2	0x7a79ba…
05-09 14:23:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	82	96¢	$79	0xf7807d…
05-09 12:47:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	82	96¢	$79	0xa1d506…
05-08 21:39:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	73	98¢	$71	0x0ddd5b…
05-08 18:27:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0xcba034…
05-08 18:27:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x0a00a4…
05-08 17:45:05	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	2¢	$1	0x29de48…
05-08 17:45:05	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	2¢	$1	0x13cba5…
05-08 17:45:05	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	2¢	$1	0x039830…
05-08 13:13:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	176	2¢	$4	0x934903…
05-08 07:38:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	39	98¢	$38	0x8e4cf3…
05-08 07:38:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0x637112…
05-08 02:52:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	74	97¢	$72	0x9e5330…
05-08 01:56:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0x05eb08…
05-07 23:43:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x80ebc4…
05-07 01:47:32	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0xe6e4aa…
05-07 00:10:44	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	80	98¢	$79	0xa84775…
05-05 17:18:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	196	4¢	$7	0xb844e0…
05-05 17:18:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	68	4¢	$3	0x081970…
05-05 13:08:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	264	3¢	$9	0x153d80…
05-01 08:53:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	27	95¢	$26	0xf412df…
05-01 08:53:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	56	95¢	$53	0x29f054…
05-01 08:52:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	83	95¢	$79	0x164507…
04-29 15:49:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	81	98¢	$80	0x4a723e…
04-29 14:32:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	81	98¢	$80	0x35afee…
04-27 13:14:52	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	Yes	SELL	162	2¢	$3	0x95cb30…
04-27 10:50:12	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	Yes	BUY	151	2¢	$3	0xa58f94…
04-27 10:50:12	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x73a5a3…
04-27 09:35:24	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	1¢	$1	0x22d075…
04-27 04:54:02	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	1¢	$2	0xcec293…
04-26 22:26:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	SELL	39	98¢	$38	0x25efdf…
04-26 19:21:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	75	98¢	$73	0xbfabd0…
04-25 23:35:24	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	159	2¢	$3	0x74fa9c…
04-25 20:56:36	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	139	2¢	$3	0x723594…
04-25 20:56:36	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x2964f0…
04-25 19:58:00	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	270	1¢	$4	0x7755e7…
04-25 15:28:34	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	270	1¢	$4	0x2dae32…
04-25 08:28:34	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	92	1¢	$1	0x2db05f…
04-25 05:33:26	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0xe6a065…
04-25 05:33:26	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x9e2234…
04-24 23:45:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	73	93¢	$68	0x856a3d…
04-24 23:45:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	14	93¢	$13	0x7f1003…
04-24 23:45:00	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	87	93¢	$81	0x2ad080…
04-24 16:13:48	Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	163	1¢	$2	0x7a8620…
04-24 14:09:00	Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	126	1¢	$1	0x0fdde1…
04-24 14:09:00	Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	1¢	$0	0x0da8d7…
04-24 12:06:46	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	82	98¢	$80	0x823f97…
04-24 10:28:02	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	82	98¢	$81	0xdabc2a…
04-24 04:26:48	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	SELL	85	93¢	$79	0xa1f340…
04-24 04:26:48	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x31a1b6…
04-24 01:56:02	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	BUY	87	93¢	$81	0x30ee75…
04-23 15:34:06	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	60	93¢	$56	0x12ea61…
04-23 15:33:26	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	26	93¢	$24	0xf26c8c…
04-23 12:30:34	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	86	92¢	$79	0x7fbb5e…
04-22 20:22:30	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	61	95¢	$58	0xe434f7…
04-22 20:22:28	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	23	95¢	$21	0x21901a…
04-22 18:23:44	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	84	95¢	$79	0x6943fb…
04-22 03:33:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	77	94¢	$72	0xc994d7…
04-22 01:36:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	77	94¢	$72	0x827118…
04-21 21:49:36	Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0xcc0176…
04-21 17:16:10	Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	151	2¢	$2	0xafac42…
04-21 15:15:20	Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	1¢	$0	0xb637a1…
04-21 15:15:20	Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$2	0x3e4b47…
04-21 10:09:10	will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	No	SELL	80	98¢	$78	0xe77034…
04-21 10:08:22	will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	No	BUY	80	98¢	$78	0xfbb3b2…
04-21 03:44:42	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	61	95¢	$58	0xf61b9b…
04-21 03:44:42	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x97aa37…
04-21 03:44:42	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x7c980a…
04-21 00:53:14	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	75	95¢	$71	0x75f3d2…
04-20 20:14:30	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	78	92¢	$72	0xe64eb3…
04-20 18:09:42	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	78	92¢	$72	0xda1a40…
04-20 03:43:00	Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	80	1¢	$1	0xa276e4…
04-20 01:54:12	Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	24	1¢	$0	0xed3906…
04-20 01:54:10	Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	56	1¢	$1	0x63d5f3…
04-18 20:33:26	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	SELL	162	7¢	$12	0xd56e5e…
04-18 18:42:38	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	BUY	162	6¢	$10	0x3165d2…
04-18 12:30:34	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	No	SELL	72	98¢	$70	0xe74cc6…
04-18 10:52:46	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	No	BUY	72	98¢	$70	0x39a814…
04-14 03:58:21	will la u win the third most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	Yes	SELL	145	1¢	$2	0xe73786…
04-14 01:35:31	will la u win the third most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	Yes	BUY	56	6¢	$3	0x60a02f…