Reflecting-Spill — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$689

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.8%

Resolved

152

Trades

353

lifetime

Volume

$71.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$203

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 11-11 06:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 72 days

Categories

Other

95% 49% -$1,208

Politics

3% 20% +$441

Crypto

1% 63% +$78

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 360 379	5	$2.1K	3,113	3,113	+0	No	-$34	03-24 20:23
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	2	$2.0K	1,054	1,054	+0	No	+$45	05-03 08:02
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	8	$2.0K	1,434	1,402	+32	No	+$440	04-30 04:34
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 400 419	2	$2.0K	1,028	1,028	+0	No	+$29	02-17 17:45
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 340 359	2	$2.0K	1,094	1,094	+0	No	+$33	03-17 06:05
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 340 359	2	$1.9K	1,077	1,077	+0	No	-$43	02-20 08:23
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 280 299	2	$1.9K	1,096	1,096	+0	Yes	-$11	03-10 06:10
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 300 319	3	$1.9K	1,045	1,045	+0	No	-$33	03-31 11:14
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 220 239	2	$1.9K	1,007	1,007	+0	No	+$41	03-08 05:58
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 320 339	3	$1.9K	1,016	1,016	+0	No	+$47	03-28 15:44
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 220 239	2	$1.9K	1,020	1,020	+0	No	-$28	03-12 12:04
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 400 419	2	$1.9K	999	999	+0	No	+$25	03-15 17:07
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 360 379	2	$1.9K	1,072	1,072	+0	Yes	-$139	03-21 09:25
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 380 399	2	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$55	02-24 06:51
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 320 339	3	$1.8K	1,004	1,004	+0	No	+$29	03-25 19:21
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 220 239	3	$1.8K	1,066	1,060	+6	No	-$52	04-06 15:56
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 260 279	2	$1.8K	998	998	+0	No	+$41	03-07 09:42
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 400 419	3	$1.8K	972	972	+0	No	+$63	03-24 08:47
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 220 239	2	$1.8K	989	985	+4	Yes	+$16	04-17 10:41
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 320 339	2	$1.7K	983	983	+0	No	+$73	03-01 10:19
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 220 239	2	$1.7K	910	910	+0	No	+$19	03-21 20:08
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 260 279	2	$1.7K	975	975	+0	No	-$61	02-25 13:55
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 640 659	2	$1.7K	889	889	+0	No	+$19	01-05 05:27
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	4	$1.7K	978	974	+4	No	-$71	04-26 19:14
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 400 419	2	$1.7K	895	895	+0	No	+$38	02-15 15:15
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 360 379	2	$1.7K	863	863	+0	No	+$25	01-04 15:46
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 440 459	2	$1.6K	849	849	+0	No	+$19	02-13 09:36
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 380 399	2	$1.6K	840	840	+0	No	+$28	01-03 05:43
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 240 259	2	$1.6K	822	822	+0	Yes	+$33	02-12 11:38
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 340 359	4	$1.5K	843	843	+0	No	+$5	02-10 13:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-11 06:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down on November 11?	Up	SELL	56	83¢	$47	0xbf0532…
11-10 17:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down on November 11?	Up	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0xe0705b…
11-10 08:04:39	Bitcoin Up or Down on November 10?	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x633a50…
11-08 15:37:24	Bitcoin Up or Down on November 8?	Up	SELL	36	90¢	$33	0x4a0bb5…
11-07 18:10:58	Bitcoin Up or Down on November 8?	Up	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x63d944…
11-05 12:49:28	Ethereum Up or Down on November 5?	Down	SELL	33	88¢	$29	0x3e92d7…
11-05 12:49:04	Bitcoin Up or Down on November 5?	Down	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0x039c1b…
11-05 08:39:28	Ethereum Up or Down on November 5?	Down	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xa87a23…
11-05 08:38:48	Bitcoin Up or Down on November 5?	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x05b0f2…
11-04 09:34:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	25	26¢	$6	0x6af6a9…
11-04 09:32:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x267dcd…
11-04 09:22:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	32	86¢	$27	0x8cad53…
11-04 09:22:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	32	87¢	$28	0x7e0762…
11-04 09:22:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	64	85¢	$54	0xc46f9f…
11-04 08:54:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	127	55¢	$70	0x46ed79…
11-04 08:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x459a16…
11-04 08:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x5af55a…
11-04 07:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	73	55¢	$40	0xd92a09…
11-04 07:20:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x9515d8…
11-04 07:19:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x9fd201…
11-03 10:11:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	21	75¢	$16	0xe74da6…
11-03 10:05:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xba7cc1…
11-03 10:05:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x9bc1de…
11-02 19:59:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2PM ET	Up	SELL	38	89¢	$34	0xf03433…
11-02 19:01:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x0eae0a…
11-02 18:23:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x9d3307…
11-02 14:16:30	Bitcoin Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xd1c917…
11-02 12:54:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	9	13¢	$1	0x7b4bcf…
11-02 12:44:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x3edcb4…
11-02 12:10:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x5c6297…
11-02 12:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x98123f…
11-02 11:50:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0x8401d8…
11-02 11:47:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x9fe596…
11-02 10:44:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xa2107f…
11-02 10:41:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x1287c6…
11-02 10:33:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	SELL	20	73¢	$14	0x77a64a…
11-02 10:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x08485f…
11-02 10:21:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0xcaec71…
11-02 10:15:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x71822f…
11-01 18:27:06	Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x00b147…
11-01 18:15:37	Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x9614a0…
11-01 18:06:45	Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	SELL	24	57¢	$14	0xf6f9ef…
11-01 18:00:10	Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x5bc751…
11-01 14:35:58	Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	81¢	$1	0x80893a…
11-01 14:30:39	Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x6bcb9c…
11-01 14:29:36	Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	SELL	22	85¢	$19	0x68fe7d…
11-01 14:15:07	Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	22	41¢	$9	0x490f3a…
11-01 14:09:46	Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xd3eafe…
11-01 11:29:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0x7360ac…
11-01 11:27:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x11c252…
10-31 13:40:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x2b2458…
10-31 13:35:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x99d6c0…
10-30 19:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	SELL	10	78¢	$7	0x12b643…
10-30 19:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x174c98…
10-30 19:01:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x053a0b…
10-30 18:58:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x729fa0…
10-30 18:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xc6a9b7…
10-30 15:29:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	24	95¢	$23	0x00880a…
10-30 15:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	24	29¢	$7	0x840b8e…
10-30 14:59:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xd9457b…
10-30 14:52:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x52e134…
10-29 17:55:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x51015b…
10-29 17:48:40	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xaed2b9…
10-29 17:35:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	47¢	$2	0x7e4c17…
10-29 17:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xc6c91f…
10-29 17:28:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x2e6baa…
10-29 17:23:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xfef1c1…
10-29 17:23:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xb8c216…
10-29 17:17:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe5de79…
07-05 19:39:56	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 19:40 UTC	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xc96947…
07-05 19:39:20	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 19:35 UTC	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xc4544b…
06-24 14:30:38	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-24 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xd141be…
06-20 15:09:05	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	100¢	$83	0x8332ff…
06-19 12:09:46	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	52¢	$43	0x5601c6…
06-14 13:47:43	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	549	91¢	$500	0x19fbbf…
06-13 13:09:34	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x2375f8…
06-13 13:09:24	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x3f7228…
06-13 13:09:04	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xab9ee8…
06-12 08:11:27	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	2¢	$1	0x07bad8…
06-12 08:11:21	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x7b0c3f…
05-19 19:25:22	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$4	0x116026…
05-19 11:01:19	Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xaad262…
05-19 11:01:10	Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3?	Yes	BUY	894	1¢	$6	0xdcdab2…
05-19 10:49:00	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,333	0¢	$4	0x06b358…
05-19 10:46:56	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	449	1¢	$5	0x75f8ba…
05-19 10:46:40	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,431	0¢	$5	0xfb4498…
05-19 10:46:33	Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x81f5b1…
05-19 10:46:30	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,667	0¢	$5	0xbabf9d…
05-12 18:44:08	Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0xbc0bb9…
05-11 14:48:37	Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x6d6b53…
05-09 17:54:30	Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xc10208…
05-09 17:44:14	Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x0792c3…
05-07 18:13:31	Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	184	54¢	$100	0xf84092…
05-07 13:25:42	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	161	2¢	$4	0xdf4ea7…
05-07 13:19:56	Will White House post 200+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	25¢	$0	0x3b6241…
05-07 13:19:45	Will White House post 200+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x887113…
05-07 13:04:02	Will White House post 200+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x2a610c…
05-07 13:03:29	Will White House post 200+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	20¢	$13	0x25ac19…
05-07 12:55:40	Will White House post 200+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	13¢	$8	0x788068…
05-07 12:52:24	Will White House post 200+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	6¢	$4	0x561a3d…