Thorny-Dependency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$352

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

9.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$447

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-02

last 05-18 06:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

53% 21% -$150

Crypto

47% 11% -$202

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-18).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes		+10	$1	6¢	$1	-$1	05-03 01:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	1	$42	281	+281	Up	-$42	05-17 23:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	6	$41	115	+115	Up	-$41	05-17 23:14
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	1	$40	119	+119	Up	-$40	05-17 23:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	1	$31	497	+497	Up	-$31	05-18 00:24
Will US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio end in a draw?	2	$28	90	+90	No	-$28	05-03 15:38
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?	1	$28	106	+106	No	-$28	05-03 15:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	1	$25	2,470	+2,470	Down	-$25	05-18 06:09
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)	1	$18	120	+120	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	-$18	05-03 18:45
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)	1	$18	29	+29	Hellas Verona FC	-$18	05-03 15:35
Spread: Zweigen Kanazawa (-2.5)	1	$18	293	+293	Ehime FC	-$18	05-06 01:29
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)	1	$16	28	+28	FC Internazionale Milano	+$12	05-03 11:08
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	1	$16	33	+33	magic	-$16	05-03 14:24
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-03?	1	$15	28	+28	No	-$15	05-03 10:15
Mauthausen: Jaime Faria vs Roman Safiullin	1	$13	28	+28	Roman Safiullin	-$13	05-03 11:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9AM ET	1	$11	234	+234	Down	-$11	05-06 13:36
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?	1	$9	23	+23	Yes	+$14	05-03 13:13
Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)	1	$9	28	+28	RC Celta de Vigo	+$19	05-03 07:37
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	1	$9	873	+873	Up	-$9	05-18 01:59
Cagliari: Hubert Hurkacz vs Matteo Arnaldi	1	$9	27	+27	Matteo Arnaldi	-$9	05-03 14:10
Will Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw?	1	$9	28	+28	No	-$9	05-03 10:15
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09?	1	$8	21	+21	No	-$8	05-03 15:08
Will Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw?	1	$8	28	+28	No	-$8	05-03 07:37
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?	1	$8	30	+30	No	-$8	05-03 15:15
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09?	3	$7	26	+26	No	-$7	05-03 13:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	1	$5	6	+6	Up	+$1	05-02 15:57
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	1	$4	11	+11	Up	-$4	05-15 20:04
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-03?	1	$2	9	+9	Yes	+$7	05-03 13:13
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-03?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	05-03 11:04
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$1	10	+10	open	—	05-03 01:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-18 06:09:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2,470	1¢	$25	0xa6f6d0…
05-18 01:59:54	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	873	1¢	$9	0x654842…
05-18 00:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	497	6¢	$31	0x9094c2…
05-17 23:15:05	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	119	34¢	$40	0x6d069b…
05-17 23:14:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	281	15¢	$42	0xbbc3e9…
05-17 23:14:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xd8a9d2…
05-17 23:14:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0xb7526f…
05-17 23:14:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	18	36¢	$6	0x994d85…
05-17 23:14:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x96ee10…
05-17 23:14:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	52	36¢	$19	0x4018f5…
05-17 23:14:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	19	36¢	$7	0x23298e…
05-15 20:04:55	Solana Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x3003a6…
05-06 13:36:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	234	5¢	$11	0xa28d43…
05-06 01:29:44	Spread: Zweigen Kanazawa (-2.5)	Zweigen Kanazawa	BUY	293	6¢	$18	0x458d6c…
05-03 18:45:22	Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)	Real Madrid CF	BUY	120	15¢	$18	0xc44047…
05-03 15:38:58	Will US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	69	31¢	$21	0xddf756…
05-03 15:38:02	Will Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	106	26¢	$28	0xb2288b…
05-03 15:35:08	Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)	Juventus FC	BUY	29	62¢	$18	0x916738…
05-03 15:15:12	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?	Yes	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0xf8c241…
05-03 15:08:14	Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09?	Yes	BUY	21	37¢	$8	0xb1cfc5…
05-03 14:24:42	Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Gentle Mates	BUY	33	47¢	$16	0xe0fa8b…
05-03 14:24:00	Will US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	22	31¢	$7	0x2845c6…
05-03 14:10:52	Cagliari: Hubert Hurkacz vs Matteo Arnaldi	Hubert Hurkacz	BUY	27	32¢	$9	0x0f8e92…
05-03 13:20:22	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09?	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xe8c646…
05-03 13:13:56	Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x8be89c…
05-03 13:13:24	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	BUY	23	40¢	$9	0xe5e8cf…
05-03 12:59:28	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xc7eac9…
05-03 11:58:40	Mauthausen: Jaime Faria vs Roman Safiullin	Jaime Faria	BUY	28	46¢	$13	0x4f18c7…
05-03 11:08:44	Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)	FC Internazionale Milano	BUY	28	58¢	$16	0xba8ccc…
05-03 11:04:36	Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0xd23c75…
05-03 10:15:40	Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	BUY	28	53¢	$15	0x3c9e29…
05-03 10:15:34	Will Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	28	31¢	$9	0x67e29e…
05-03 10:15:12	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09?	Yes	BUY	11	25¢	$3	0x40f23c…
05-03 07:37:42	Will Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	28	28¢	$8	0xd6fc2f…
05-03 07:37:34	Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)	RC Celta de Vigo	BUY	28	32¢	$9	0xf7402e…
05-03 01:48:22	Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x31bc7c…
05-02 15:57:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x4999b2…