Distorted-Guess — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$85

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

48.5%

Resolved

Trades

687

lifetime

Volume

$2.35K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-18

last 06-27 10:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 39% $-85

Other

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 181 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	4	$36	422	22	+400	Up	+$8	05-05 11:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	5	$33	132	32	+100	Up	+$9	05-06 14:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	5	$31	63	63	+0	open	—	05-03 09:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	3	$30	28	28	+0	open	—	05-04 12:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	4	$30	43	16	+27	Up	+$16	05-05 11:04
btc updown 15m 1776528000	2	$28	27	26	+2	open	—	04-18 16:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	4	$28	19	19	+0	open	—	05-02 03:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	2	$28	19	19	+0	open	—	05-04 08:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	4	$27	81	26	+56	open	—	05-02 02:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	2	$27	19	19	+0	Up	+$7	05-06 15:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	4	$25	17	17	+0	open	—	05-03 17:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	4	$24	22	22	+0	open	—	05-03 07:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	2	$24	20	13	+7	open	—	05-03 16:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	4	$24	24	24	+0	open	—	05-03 13:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	2	$24	19	19	+0	open	—	05-03 15:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	3	$23	37	19	+18	Up	$-3	05-05 10:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	3	$22	37	13	+23	Down	$-14	05-05 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	3	$19	32	15	+17	open	—	05-03 08:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	4	$19	14	14	+0	open	—	05-03 14:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	2	$19	15	15	+0	open	—	05-03 12:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	3	$19	16	16	+0	open	—	05-02 01:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	1	$18	44	0	+44	Up	$-18	05-06 15:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	2	$18	17	17	+0	Down	+$12	05-05 14:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	2	$17	13	13	+0	open	—	05-03 05:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	2	$17	11	11	+0	open	—	05-03 12:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	3	$17	25	12	+12	open	—	05-03 07:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	2	$16	11	11	+0	open	—	05-03 11:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	4	$16	18	15	+2	open	—	05-01 16:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	4	$16	111	0	+111	Down	$-16	05-06 14:54
btc updown 15m 1776597300	6	$15	19	12	+7	open	—	04-19 11:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-27 10:19:47	btc updown 15m 1782555300	Up	BUY	16	38¢	$6	0xa3f8b4…
06-27 10:16:08	btc updown 5m 1782555300	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xb88b88…
06-27 10:09:26	btc updown 5m 1782554700	Up	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0xef0ffa…
06-27 10:06:58	btc updown 5m 1782554700	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x8d2876…
06-27 10:03:29	btc updown 5m 1782554400	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x932c08…
05-06 15:45:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	44	41¢	$18	0xdac917…
05-06 15:42:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x9bcc2f…
05-06 15:40:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x19e898…
05-06 15:35:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xc29ed8…
05-06 15:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xef95b8…
05-06 15:29:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x653938…
05-06 15:25:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xb91153…
05-06 15:23:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	SELL	19	91¢	$17	0x6fe735…
05-06 15:20:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xcd734b…
05-06 15:11:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	18	25¢	$4	0xdd46b9…
05-06 15:10:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0xc46aff…
05-06 15:06:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xb44973…
05-06 15:05:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0x218e88…
05-06 15:02:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x081bdc…
05-06 14:54:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	35	4¢	$1	0xe7ee3c…
05-06 14:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xe209b2…
05-06 14:52:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	29	13¢	$4	0x286025…
05-06 14:48:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x4ca395…
05-06 14:46:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x8e8970…
05-06 14:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x57dc60…
05-06 14:38:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	16	67¢	$11	0x513365…
05-06 14:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	16	62¢	$10	0x31f475…
05-06 14:35:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xfb4f2c…
05-06 14:35:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	16	38¢	$6	0xe2c695…
05-06 14:32:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x434c5c…
05-06 07:38:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	SELL	4	53¢	$2	0x84e5b9…
05-06 07:36:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xe1d0ba…
05-06 07:33:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x63a4e3…
05-06 07:31:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x9c2076…
05-05 14:59:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x4bf894…
05-05 14:56:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xc9da62…
05-05 14:50:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x52b483…
05-05 14:41:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xf1800b…
05-05 14:37:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0xd655ae…
05-05 14:36:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xeefe7a…
05-05 14:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	SELL	17	88¢	$15	0xb4fa3f…
05-05 14:32:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0xf321ed…
05-05 14:26:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x999209…
05-05 14:22:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xf13f3c…
05-05 14:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xeb0a16…
05-05 14:17:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x8824ed…
05-05 14:08:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0x69b398…
05-05 14:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x395e0b…
05-05 14:01:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x1d4b4b…
05-05 13:56:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x8c7f32…
05-05 13:55:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xe52e50…
05-05 13:51:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0x2c0f14…
05-05 12:59:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	25	7¢	$2	0x68021d…
05-05 12:55:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x1943e6…
05-05 12:55:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x6689c8…
05-05 11:58:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	14	15¢	$2	0x5694de…
05-05 11:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x65c306…
05-05 11:41:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	16	43¢	$7	0x714be5…
05-05 11:40:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	400	1¢	$4	0xe997ef…
05-05 11:39:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x3dde3c…
05-05 11:35:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xf56629…
05-05 11:34:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xd5c812…
05-05 11:28:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x4e5281…
05-05 11:22:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x833ad6…
05-05 11:21:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x045a81…
05-05 11:17:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x413e13…
05-05 11:11:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x1688b4…
05-05 11:06:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x2abf31…
05-05 11:04:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0xb41cf0…
05-05 11:03:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	16	44¢	$7	0x454c9e…
05-05 11:02:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	SELL	16	61¢	$9	0xfa4a68…
05-05 11:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0xf18043…
05-05 10:57:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x0a8eb9…
05-05 10:56:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	19	55¢	$10	0xd2a6f9…
05-05 10:54:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x10465e…
05-05 10:52:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	13	21¢	$3	0x167ae6…
05-05 10:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xf95bad…
05-05 10:49:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x802ba2…
05-05 10:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	SELL	13	33¢	$4	0x881e54…
05-05 10:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	13	60¢	$8	0x14a08e…
05-05 10:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x36ba7c…
05-05 10:40:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0x2b3401…
05-05 10:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x2342b2…
05-05 10:37:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xd36f6b…
05-05 10:35:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	15	40¢	$6	0x590b80…
05-05 10:30:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x2ce767…
05-05 10:26:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x32685e…
05-05 10:26:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0x6db70a…
05-05 10:25:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xe5a0dc…
05-05 10:21:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x99e2f6…
05-05 10:20:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x462c3a…
05-05 10:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0x61543d…
05-05 04:48:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x1131eb…
05-05 04:46:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x7921ef…
05-04 13:49:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	18	7¢	$1	0x1b7239…
05-04 13:47:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x7ef3a2…
05-04 13:42:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0xfdc1c2…
05-04 13:42:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x81bf77…
05-04 13:39:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0x33fd15…
05-04 13:38:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x846c35…