Valid-Defense — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$139

Unrealized P&L

+$4.12K

Hit rate

95.4%

Resolved

Trades

4,718

lifetime

Volume

$14.3M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$3.04K

Open exposure

$392.5K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-28 23:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Politics

50% 100% +$201

Other

37% 100% +$9

Crypto

12% — —

Sports

1% 75% $-349

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 203 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	+163,651	$163,160	100¢	$163.5K	+$327	06-23 16:21
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	+99,261	$98,268	100¢	$99.2K	+$893	06-19 22:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+53,037	$52,454	100¢	$52.8K	+$345	06-28 23:49
Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	+52,391	$49,905	100¢	$52.3K	+$2,407	06-18 21:10
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	+24,719	$24,546	100¢	$24.7K	+$148	06-23 16:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	90	$686.5K	449,372	240,000	+209,372	open	—	01-03 16:24
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	213	$611.0K	613,110	0	+613,110	open	—	04-09 01:29
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	400	$610.4K	620,381	0	+620,381	open	—	03-17 09:46
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	205	$592.5K	393,319	267,020	+126,299	open	—	03-01 01:40
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$590.8K	592,030	0	+592,030	open	—	04-07 08:40
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	115	$574.1K	559,917	32,713	+527,204	open	—	06-02 10:11
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	27	$571.2K	365,293	207,256	+158,037	open	—	01-30 14:35
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	10	$426.8K	428,809	0	+428,809	open	—	04-27 03:29
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	33	$400.9K	322,059	83,726	+238,333	open	—	02-03 23:48
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	23	$367.3K	369,760	0	+369,760	open	—	01-04 00:16
microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025	7	$351.5K	0	351,867	-351,867	open	—	01-01 06:37
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	197	$290.6K	300,430	0	+300,430	open	—	01-28 08:54
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	344	$285.0K	264,504	24,208	+240,296	open	—	03-26 04:22
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	45	$272.1K	270,310	3,166	+267,144	open	—	06-19 02:17
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	8	$259.3K	260,470	0	+260,470	open	—	04-29 21:39
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	34	$244.7K	229,300	35,674	+193,626	open	—	05-27 00:27
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	40	$236.1K	204,554	32,427	+172,127	open	—	04-02 02:03
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	33	$229.9K	229,681	990	+228,691	open	—	06-17 23:57
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	79	$229.3K	232,315	200	+232,115	open	—	05-22 01:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	9	$226.2K	227,135	0	+227,135	open	—	06-01 03:01
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	1	$219.3K	220,000	0	+220,000	open	—	04-29 21:47
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	89	$214.6K	210,384	9,840	+200,544	open	—	05-23 03:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	63	$205.1K	146,007	72,553	+73,454	open	—	01-31 17:56
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	40	$191.9K	193,243	0	+193,243	open	—	05-12 11:43
will edgex launch a token in 2025	44	$189.6K	190,151	0	+190,151	open	—	01-01 23:52
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	22	$186.3K	146,111	40,500	+105,611	open	—	02-10 02:59
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	30	$185.2K	185,677	0	+185,677	open	—	04-02 13:45
netanyahu out by march 31 854	49	$177.7K	180,795	0	+180,795	open	—	04-01 01:17
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	24	$173.6K	174,282	0	+174,282	open	—	03-25 00:00
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	4	$163.2K	163,651	0	+163,651	open	—	06-23 16:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 23:49:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x2da3d9…
06-28 23:48:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x4ffe1d…
06-28 23:37:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,026	99¢	$1,015	0x677aff…
06-28 23:36:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x77d4b1…
06-28 23:35:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	835	99¢	$826	0xc2b80c…
06-28 23:35:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8cafd5…
06-28 23:30:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xa8c88a…
06-28 23:28:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xc25bc9…
06-28 23:12:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x9bf421…
06-28 23:12:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x2ecda2…
06-28 23:11:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	50,556	99¢	$50,000	0xadd06c…
06-28 23:05:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x44b265…
06-28 23:04:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x3f2947…
06-28 22:58:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	580	99¢	$574	0x4ced69…
06-28 21:51:53	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe8b1fe…
06-28 21:19:46	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	577	99¢	$571	0x090998…
06-25 14:57:02	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xa80bb9…
06-25 14:49:07	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	476	98¢	$466	0xd0d972…
06-25 14:49:04	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	8,230	98¢	$8,058	0x095a30…
06-25 12:04:52	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	11,000	98¢	$10,835	0xc46129…
06-25 04:02:08	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x6dc32e…
06-25 03:51:28	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	50	98¢	$48	0xa93eef…
06-25 03:37:10	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	50	98¢	$48	0xfcafa2…
06-25 03:34:29	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	133	98¢	$130	0x94194b…
06-25 03:32:53	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	201	98¢	$197	0xd3914a…
06-25 03:32:52	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	182	98¢	$178	0x7948b1…
06-25 03:32:52	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	103	98¢	$101	0x192ff3…
06-25 03:32:50	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	13,315	98¢	$13,022	0x277850…
06-23 23:27:34	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xb27f3c…
06-23 23:08:02	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	120	98¢	$117	0xe515a1…
06-23 23:08:01	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	200	98¢	$195	0x2cb3e5…
06-23 23:07:52	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	250	98¢	$244	0xeb194e…
06-23 23:07:43	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	195	98¢	$191	0x5d907e…
06-23 23:07:40	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	595	98¢	$581	0x686f3d…
06-23 22:58:08	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	1,086	98¢	$1,060	0x044a96…
06-23 22:58:05	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	208	98¢	$203	0x911bdb…
06-23 22:56:29	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0xbc78e4…
06-23 22:55:50	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	22,976	98¢	$22,424	0x7e489e…
06-23 22:55:35	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	226	98¢	$221	0xf8c215…
06-23 22:55:26	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x7d3164…
06-23 22:54:14	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x030a85…
06-23 22:53:17	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x5ce7d7…
06-23 22:52:58	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x320e89…
06-23 22:52:49	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	1,042	98¢	$1,017	0xc95920…
06-23 22:52:44	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x701ad7…
06-23 22:50:28	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x3f37f7…
06-23 22:49:04	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0xdaca97…
06-23 22:48:43	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x005d03…
06-23 22:48:10	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	718	98¢	$701	0x04da73…
06-23 22:47:58	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	250	98¢	$244	0xf227f2…
06-23 22:47:37	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x416fbc…
06-23 22:47:29	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	59	98¢	$58	0x58fc70…
06-23 22:47:26	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	590	98¢	$575	0x552adf…
06-23 22:47:26	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	2,113	98¢	$2,062	0x1d65ad…
06-23 16:21:32	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7763e3…
06-23 16:21:29	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	74,056	100¢	$73,833	0xb0cf92…
06-23 16:20:01	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe912a5…
06-23 16:18:47	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	89,589	100¢	$89,320	0x1625b3…
06-23 16:13:59	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	24,719	99¢	$24,546	0x2ee238…
06-23 11:17:31	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	15,000	98¢	$14,625	0xb45e33…
06-23 11:15:26	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	15,000	98¢	$14,637	0xdb3b4e…
06-22 08:28:47	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,698	98¢	$3,624	0x032ff0…
06-22 08:28:46	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,302	98¢	$1,276	0x3b3941…
06-22 01:13:46	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	2,663	96¢	$2,567	0xc9cf1e…
06-22 01:13:43	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	27,337	96¢	$26,353	0x1553e9…
06-20 20:58:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	97¢	$46	0x293541…
06-20 20:46:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,623	97¢	$1,575	0x6067b1…
06-19 22:15:35	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xba6ccd…
06-19 19:59:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	990	99¢	$980	0x28a5fd…
06-19 17:33:31	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	400	99¢	$396	0xe9ac1d…
06-19 17:33:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	93,868	99¢	$92,929	0xc24832…
06-19 17:33:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	4,000	99¢	$3,960	0x79990d…
06-19 02:17:44	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	226	100¢	$225	0x43ae64…
06-19 02:16:31	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	25,000	100¢	$24,975	0x8e610c…
06-19 02:15:50	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	95,000	100¢	$94,905	0xe85e9f…
06-19 02:14:02	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,997	0x0d40f6…
06-19 02:10:28	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x4db1cf…
06-19 01:47:19	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9132ed…
06-19 01:32:04	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x3687fe…
06-19 01:26:53	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xec35fa…
06-19 01:26:34	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc93db0…
06-19 01:21:14	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xb9dc23…
06-19 01:18:47	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x3f6fc1…
06-19 01:12:35	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xdd4181…
06-19 01:09:11	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0x75afda…
06-19 00:49:59	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0x09d2e8…
06-19 00:47:56	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	1,102	100¢	$1,101	0x73a593…
06-19 00:45:47	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x985890…
06-19 00:45:28	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	1,500	100¢	$1,498	0x1c1a76…
06-19 00:44:16	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0x45b1e0…
06-19 00:28:38	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	39,060	100¢	$39,021	0xbc30be…
06-19 00:24:20	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x1cfb15…
06-19 00:19:56	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xaa70ed…
06-19 00:16:40	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	92	100¢	$92	0x89b903…
06-19 00:13:19	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	15,000	100¢	$14,985	0xe208eb…
06-19 00:09:08	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	9,000	100¢	$8,991	0x65b57c…
06-19 00:06:05	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xb21bb9…
06-19 00:01:38	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe8b807…
06-18 23:53:04	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x39fcb7…
06-18 23:45:40	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	164	100¢	$164	0x5cee8c…