Valid-Defense — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$54.2K

Unrealized P&L

-$561

Hit rate

84.0%

Resolved

369

Trades

7,703

lifetime

Volume

$20.1M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.61K

Open exposure

$211.6K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 07:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 159 days

Categories

Other

42% 82% +$54,898

Politics

41% 85% +$3,149

Crypto

10% 87% -$7,107

Sports

6% 82% +$1,361

Tech

1% 88% +$2,048

Pop-Culture

0% 50% -$197

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 148 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+155,500	$154,628	99¢	$153.9K	-$683	10-29 07:18
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	+51,522	$51,283	100¢	$51.4K	+$110	10-28 22:53
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	No	+3,546	$3,528	100¢	$3.5K	+$2	10-29 03:36
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?	No	+2,738	$2,709	99¢	$2.7K	+$10	10-28 20:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	90	$686.5K	449,372	240,000	+209,372	No	+$1,915	01-03 16:24
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	160	$643.0K	631,440	61,791	+569,650	No	-$9,720	06-02 10:11
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	213	$611.0K	613,110	0	+613,110	Yes	+$2,071	04-09 01:29
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	400	$610.4K	620,381	0	+620,381	Yes	+$10,019	03-17 09:46
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	205	$592.5K	393,319	267,020	+126,299	Yes	-$20,512	03-01 01:40
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$590.8K	592,030	0	+592,030	Yes	+$1,246	04-07 08:40
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	27	$571.2K	365,293	207,256	+158,037	No	+$510	01-30 14:35
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	95	$511.8K	514,695	0	+514,695	No	+$2,940	07-29 06:07
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	90	$508.4K	512,125	0	+512,125	No	+$3,683	09-16 17:46
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	216	$490.1K	519,847	0	+519,847	Yes	+$29,779	10-28 03:42
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	10	$426.8K	428,809	0	+428,809	Yes	+$1,990	04-27 03:29
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	33	$400.9K	322,059	83,726	+238,333	Yes	+$111	02-03 23:48
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	23	$367.3K	369,760	0	+369,760	No	+$2,411	01-04 00:16
microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025	7	$351.5K	0	351,867	-351,867	No	-$352	01-01 06:37
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	540	$337.3K	207,021	205,971	+1,050	Yes	-$40,440	07-29 18:00
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	197	$290.6K	300,430	0	+300,430	Yes	+$9,804	01-28 08:54
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	344	$285.0K	264,504	24,208	+240,296	No	+$2,820	03-26 04:22
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	153	$283.6K	285,953	0	+285,953	Yes	+$2,384	06-13 09:13
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$276.7K	276,992	0	+276,992	No	+$277	05-10 22:12
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	45	$272.1K	270,310	3,166	+267,144	Yes	-$176	06-19 02:17
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	8	$259.3K	260,470	0	+260,470	No	+$1,196	04-29 21:39
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	42	$249.8K	250,122	990	+249,132	No	+$1,314	06-17 23:57
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	35	$245.0K	229,628	35,674	+193,954	No	-$15,025	05-27 00:27
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	40	$236.1K	204,554	32,427	+172,127	No	+$434	04-02 02:03
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	79	$229.3K	232,315	200	+232,115	No	+$3,225	05-22 01:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	11	$228.6K	229,559	0	+229,559	No	+$940	06-01 03:01
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	114	$221.1K	216,935	9,840	+207,094	No	+$5,244	05-23 03:03
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	1	$219.3K	220,000	0	+220,000	No	+$660	04-29 21:47
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	26	$215.4K	216,051	0	+216,051	Yes	+$694	07-21 16:27
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	89	$208.6K	218,981	511	+218,470	Yes	+$10,548	06-16 13:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 07:18:14	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	293	99¢	$291	0x68bc2f…
10-29 07:18:13	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	99,707	99¢	$99,109	0x3a6919…
10-29 03:36:08	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	No	BUY	3,005	100¢	$2,990	0x75ebaa…
10-29 02:30:47	Knicks vs. Bulls	Knicks	SELL	187	97¢	$182	0x7dabc5…
10-29 02:24:07	Knicks vs. Bulls	Knicks	BUY	180	96¢	$173	0xcf6f4a…
10-29 02:24:02	Knicks vs. Bulls	Knicks	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x4485bd…
10-29 01:38:31	76ers vs. Pacers	Pacers	SELL	370	14¢	$52	0x4bc54d…
10-29 01:11:31	76ers vs. Pacers	Pacers	BUY	370	81¢	$300	0x1b9586…
10-28 23:36:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x97ec0c…
10-28 22:53:07	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	BUY	50,000	100¢	$49,800	0x1be35a…
10-28 22:26:31	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	47,179	99¢	$46,944	0xe8773a…
10-28 22:26:17	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	320	99¢	$318	0xaa732e…
10-28 22:18:16	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	275	100¢	$274	0x63d5d7…
10-28 22:16:59	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	2,225	100¢	$2,214	0xe34166…
10-28 20:48:28	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	5,500	100¢	$5,478	0xa49493…
10-28 20:38:46	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?	No	BUY	1,833	99¢	$1,814	0x6b4d6a…
10-28 20:31:50	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?	No	BUY	905	99¢	$895	0xa395ec…
10-28 20:30:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	No	BUY	505	100¢	$502	0xd0bac0…
10-28 03:42:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50,000	95¢	$47,700	0xe348dc…
10-28 03:09:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,302	96¢	$9,838	0x3633c4…
10-28 03:07:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	483	96¢	$461	0x3f7747…
10-28 03:00:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	47	96¢	$45	0x64ba27…
10-28 02:54:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	39,168	96¢	$37,406	0xbdd02e…
10-28 02:41:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	24,004	96¢	$23,020	0xd6399d…
10-28 02:39:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,460	96¢	$1,400	0xf4b038…
10-28 02:39:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,816	96¢	$1,742	0xbb5ba1…
10-28 02:39:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,753	96¢	$2,640	0x9f5599…
10-28 02:39:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,709	96¢	$1,638	0x74d8e8…
10-28 02:39:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,217	96¢	$2,126	0x6305dc…
10-28 02:39:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,592	96¢	$1,526	0x1573f0…
10-28 02:39:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	96¢	$384	0x092e0e…
10-28 02:39:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,380	96¢	$2,282	0x07faa7…
10-28 01:43:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	154	96¢	$147	0x6a7905…
10-28 01:43:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	96¢	$384	0x685224…
10-28 01:43:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,752	96¢	$2,639	0x4311ee…
10-28 01:43:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,066	96¢	$1,022	0xc28142…
10-28 01:43:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	450	96¢	$432	0xab8690…
10-28 01:43:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,815	96¢	$1,741	0x45642e…
10-28 01:43:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,035	96¢	$1,952	0x19ae98…
10-28 01:43:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,598	96¢	$1,533	0x01ca19…
10-28 01:31:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	892	96¢	$856	0x36a1e7…
10-28 01:29:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	508	96¢	$487	0x4f0e0d…
10-27 10:00:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	46,160	93¢	$42,929	0xb2fa0d…
10-27 09:58:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	46,626	94¢	$43,595	0x496731…
10-27 09:58:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$187	0x1b4032…
10-27 09:58:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xa6b441…
10-27 09:58:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x8c0759…
10-27 09:58:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,924	94¢	$1,799	0x2f88a7…
10-27 09:58:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	450	94¢	$421	0x2c8c5c…
10-27 09:58:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	94¢	$561	0x1b9d2c…
10-26 14:41:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50,000	94¢	$46,900	0x11685c…
10-26 13:48:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x477de2…
10-26 13:47:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	23,676	94¢	$22,280	0xf365cc…
10-26 13:16:21	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	84	74¢	$62	0xacbea1…
10-26 13:16:20	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	172	74¢	$127	0x96d012…
10-26 13:16:18	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	141	74¢	$104	0xe5f5ff…
10-26 13:16:18	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	127	74¢	$94	0x1dd494…
10-26 13:15:45	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	66	74¢	$49	0x11113b…
10-26 13:15:41	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xe72aa0…
10-26 13:15:29	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0xaba0cd…
10-26 13:14:30	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	45	74¢	$33	0x604427…
10-26 13:14:18	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	153	74¢	$113	0x29d484…
10-26 13:14:18	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	326	74¢	$241	0x0f3867…
10-26 13:14:14	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	51	74¢	$38	0x7178da…
10-26 13:14:11	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	114	74¢	$85	0x9cf226…
10-26 13:14:11	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	199	74¢	$147	0x43c311…
10-26 13:14:09	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	500	74¢	$370	0xce4117…
10-26 13:14:05	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	16	74¢	$12	0xf3d9c2…
10-26 13:14:00	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	12	74¢	$9	0x8e1483…
10-26 13:13:56	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0x042740…
10-26 13:13:53	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	38	74¢	$28	0xe10127…
10-26 13:13:53	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	17	74¢	$13	0x4d8277…
10-26 13:13:50	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	39	74¢	$29	0x7da507…
10-26 13:13:41	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	400	74¢	$296	0xe54653…
10-26 13:13:41	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	166	74¢	$123	0x7f30ce…
10-26 13:12:51	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	9	74¢	$7	0xb7c119…
10-26 13:12:50	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	2	74¢	$1	0x337ed1…
10-26 13:12:41	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	9	74¢	$7	0x2ee08c…
10-26 13:12:26	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	9	74¢	$6	0x79ed04…
10-26 13:12:23	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0xddab9d…
10-26 13:12:12	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	3,292	74¢	$2,433	0xbe72b0…
10-26 13:12:11	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	14	74¢	$10	0x07d0b2…
10-26 13:12:06	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	500	74¢	$370	0x9e7504…
10-26 13:11:29	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	80	74¢	$59	0xc57a77…
10-26 13:11:23	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	29	74¢	$21	0x8a2b09…
10-26 13:11:14	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	13	74¢	$10	0xd7cef4…
10-26 13:11:12	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	15	74¢	$11	0x06665c…
10-26 13:11:03	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	15	74¢	$11	0xb4853c…
10-26 13:11:03	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	200	74¢	$148	0x403940…
10-26 13:11:02	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	200	74¢	$148	0xf64c78…
10-26 13:10:57	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	200	74¢	$148	0x3a9495…
10-26 13:10:56	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	58	74¢	$43	0x0fac86…
10-26 13:10:54	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	200	74¢	$148	0xc9793a…
10-26 13:10:51	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0xcd0cc6…
10-26 13:10:51	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	200	74¢	$148	0x981afb…
10-26 13:10:51	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	358	74¢	$264	0x9752ec…
10-26 13:10:48	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0x4880cf…
10-26 13:10:47	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	200	74¢	$148	0xcf4cdf…
10-26 13:10:44	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0xb19235…
10-26 13:10:42	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	200	74¢	$148	0x5967d9…