Tidy-Waterbed — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$56

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

89.8%

Resolved

Trades

364

lifetime

Volume

$6.81K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-16

last 05-19 12:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

44% — —

Other

35% — —

Crypto

21% 63% +$56

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	3	$971	804	575	+229	open	—	04-04 18:23
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$663	502	502	+0	open	—	03-03 13:09
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$361	467	467	+0	open	—	02-28 06:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	12	$320	640	0	+640	open	—	05-19 12:29
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 10 468	2	$265	165	165	+0	open	—	03-08 21:54
highest temperature in taipei on april 14 2026 34corhigher	8	$251	230	265	-35	open	—	04-13 19:49
highest temperature in taipei on april 24 2026 24corhigher	10	$239	129	128	+1	open	—	04-24 19:35
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$239	222	222	+0	open	—	04-08 00:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	2	$226	142	142	+0	Up	+$26	05-13 20:17
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25?	2	$217	200	192	+8	open	—	04-25 05:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	28	$160	333	0	+333	open	—	05-16 12:50
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	2	$137	118	118	+0	open	—	03-08 21:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	1	$136	320	0	+320	open	—	05-19 12:20
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	3	$126	2,557	2,027	+530	open	—	02-24 23:34
highest temperature in shanghai on april 15 2026 20corhigher	8	$124	97	105	-9	open	—	04-15 06:36
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$124	105	105	+0	open	—	04-08 00:03
highest temperature in dallas on april 14 2026 82forhigher	2	$91	61	61	+0	open	—	04-15 06:35
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on April 26?	2	$68	40	39	+1	open	—	04-25 19:22
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or higher on April 25?	4	$67	38	38	+0	open	—	04-25 05:40
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C or higher on April 27?	3	$65	36	35	+0	open	—	04-28 04:05
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 64°F or higher on April 26?	4	$62	34	34	+0	open	—	04-25 19:22
highest temperature in london on february 19 2026 6c	7	$62	182	182	+0	open	—	02-19 08:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	1	$61	160	0	+160	open	—	05-19 12:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	1	$57	167	0	+167	open	—	05-16 12:35
highest temperature in ankara on february 24 2026 8c	7	$56	70	70	+0	open	—	02-24 01:57
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on April 28?	2	$54	50	49	+1	open	—	04-28 04:08
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 26?	3	$48	39	39	+0	open	—	04-24 17:10
highest temperature in seoul on february 18 2026 5c	6	$45	50	50	+0	open	—	02-17 23:41
highest temperature in london on february 18 2026 6c	4	$44	44	44	+0	open	—	02-18 00:24
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 59°F or below on April 25?	6	$42	63	61	+2	open	—	04-24 17:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-19 12:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	150	50¢	$75	0xba6dff…
05-19 12:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	25	50¢	$13	0x2d2ca2…
05-19 12:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	198	50¢	$99	0xe93563…
05-19 12:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	144	50¢	$72	0xe23988…
05-19 12:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0xdbebac…
05-19 12:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb1fe45…
05-19 12:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x5bb3b8…
05-19 12:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	26	50¢	$13	0x48b2f5…
05-19 12:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x07cdc5…
05-19 12:27:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0xd99701…
05-19 12:27:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x9fd65f…
05-19 12:27:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x442223…
05-19 12:20:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	320	42¢	$136	0x685668…
05-19 12:15:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	160	38¢	$61	0x3dc660…
05-19 12:10:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	80	42¢	$34	0x587195…
05-19 12:05:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	40	46¢	$18	0xb771e4…
05-19 12:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xdb0177…
05-17 12:40:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x59a3e5…
05-17 12:35:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	63	48¢	$30	0xe8cd39…
05-17 12:35:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x70f89d…
05-17 12:30:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0xe2e697…
05-17 12:25:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xacc5f2…
05-17 12:15:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0xfbc128…
05-17 12:12:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xbde6cf…
05-17 12:12:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x1e0ef6…
05-17 12:12:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xdcddbd…
05-17 12:12:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xa99908…
05-17 12:12:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x79859f…
05-17 12:12:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x127aca…
05-17 12:12:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x26973a…
05-17 12:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	21	30¢	$6	0xb9a79d…
05-16 12:50:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	48¢	$2	0xdc6df9…
05-16 12:50:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xf543f7…
05-16 12:50:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xe8770b…
05-16 12:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	48¢	$3	0xff8161…
05-16 12:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xd5cdfb…
05-16 12:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xd0bae9…
05-16 12:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xbfe2a2…
05-16 12:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	14	48¢	$7	0xbe0d39…
05-16 12:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x8a63a9…
05-16 12:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x86879f…
05-16 12:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	96	48¢	$46	0x75f955…
05-16 12:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x6e7e5a…
05-16 12:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x481bfb…
05-16 12:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x2b0545…
05-16 12:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x0d9f7e…
05-16 12:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x057164…
05-16 12:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	15	48¢	$7	0xef79f0…
05-16 12:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	13	48¢	$6	0xd4f370…
05-16 12:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0xc4e278…
05-16 12:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	48¢	$5	0xc39fdc…
05-16 12:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xc0b619…
05-16 12:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	24	48¢	$12	0xbf03a4…
05-16 12:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	25	48¢	$12	0x935e8c…
05-16 12:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	24	48¢	$12	0x5db903…
05-16 12:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x4527d0…
05-16 12:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0x3b2373…
05-16 12:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0x2adfb1…
05-16 12:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	48¢	$0	0x01c294…
05-16 12:35:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	167	34¢	$57	0x00bf41…
05-16 12:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	83	40¢	$33	0x255f63…
05-16 12:15:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	42	33¢	$14	0x6a7ccc…
05-16 12:10:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x42d0c5…
05-16 12:05:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x952e53…
05-16 12:05:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	16	48¢	$8	0x2f9892…
05-16 12:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x2fed4b…
05-15 12:10:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xd98d2f…
05-15 12:05:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x465d80…
05-15 12:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	48¢	$3	0xcf3063…
05-15 12:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	14	48¢	$7	0x8939d7…
05-14 12:15:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xc18b82…
05-14 12:12:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x33ef57…
05-14 12:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x90d620…
05-14 12:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0x5b0ea1…
05-14 12:00:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xed3a87…
05-13 20:17:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	142	89¢	$126	0xc93278…
05-13 20:15:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	142	70¢	$100	0xe7dfd8…
05-13 12:15:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x0f2ee8…
05-13 12:10:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xe50948…
05-13 12:00:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xa85a0a…
05-12 12:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x85253e…
05-12 12:00:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x764528…
05-10 12:15:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x35ae8c…
05-10 12:10:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x5639ff…
05-10 12:06:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xf86897…
05-10 12:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x419c99…
05-10 12:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x60584f…
05-09 12:52:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x509f87…
05-09 12:50:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x84596b…
05-09 12:46:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x2c6deb…
05-09 12:40:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xb5e9d7…
05-09 12:35:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x93d16b…
05-09 12:30:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x05cdf5…
05-09 12:25:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xfe2933…
05-09 12:20:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xacf708…
05-09 12:19:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x1eb791…
05-09 12:10:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x2d9c4f…
05-09 12:05:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x301794…
05-09 12:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xe870a4…
05-08 12:10:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xbbc9d7…