Candid-Encirclement 0x6ae0f4…79b747
bot 4W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$462
Unrealized P&L
+$152
Hit rate
71.1%
Resolved
1,621
Trades
3,642
lifetime
Volume
$37.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$2.96K
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-26
last 10-28 06:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 106 days
Categories
Other
69% 40% +$494
Politics
26% 40% +$66
Tech
4% 45% -$127
Crypto
1% 67% +$85
Sports
0% 50% +$18
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$73
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 203 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +993 $588 63¢ $626 +$38 10-21 09:56
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +516 $331 68¢ $348 +$17 10-22 13:40
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? Yes +994 $301 32¢ $321 +$21 10-21 09:56
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +241 $232 96¢ $231 -$1 09-25 19:47
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat? Yes +183 $174 96¢ $176 +$3 09-16 14:21
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +516 $186 32¢ $168 -$18 10-20 23:38
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Yes +225 $121 70¢ $159 +$38 07-29 16:38
Will there be no Hormuz agreement? Yes +120 $114 94¢ $114 $0 10-15 23:47
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? Yes +90 $32 90¢ $81 +$49 10-28 07:33
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +120 $76 65¢ $78 +$2 10-20 23:35
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes +71 $65 96¢ $68 +$3 10-11 20:56
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? Yes +84 $10 76¢ $64 +$53 10-09 12:57
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +83 $46 64¢ $53 +$8 10-01 17:24
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +70 $48 67¢ $47 -$1 10-22 14:24
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes +60 $22 71¢ $43 +$21 09-23 19:55
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +40 $39 99¢ $40 +$1 10-23 13:08
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? Yes +120 $36 32¢ $39 +$2 10-20 23:35
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes +64 $37 57¢ $37 -$1 10-27 09:05
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes +36 $26 80¢ $29 +$3 10-03 14:10
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? Yes +29 $22 98¢ $29 +$6 09-24 11:47
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +82 $30 32¢ $26 -$4 10-01 17:24
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? Yes +1,017 $34 2¢ $25 -$9 10-21 09:56
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes +65 $25 38¢ $25 -$1 10-27 09:05
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? Yes +70 $22 32¢ $23 +$1 10-22 14:24
Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +30 $19 67¢ $20 +$1 10-21 05:04
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? Yes +20 $19 98¢ $20 +$1 10-11 13:59
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? Yes +80 $68 24¢ $19 -$49 10-09 12:57
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes +26 $5 72¢ $19 +$14 08-28 06:07
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +1,006 $63 2¢ $17 -$47 10-21 09:56
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +18 $12 76¢ $14 +$1 09-29 19:32