Subtle-Motel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.91K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.9%

Resolved

4,123

Trades

15,946

lifetime

Volume

$112.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 10:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 148 days

Categories

Other

63% 60% +$1,138

Sports

25% 55% +$1,756

Politics

9% 66% +$445

Crypto

2% 45% -$466

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$11

Tech

0% 75% +$22

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	4	$590	331	331	+0	Yes	+$20	05-19 18:05
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	7	$407	267	267	+0	No	+$74	06-10 13:14
nba cle phi 2026 01 14	57	$332	554	163	+391	Cavaliers	-$214	01-15 01:05
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	5	$323	303	303	+0	Yes	+$45	06-10 13:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	18	$314	614	564	+49	Yes	-$212	06-13 17:13
nba phi tor 2026 01 11	68	$314	583	0	+583	Raptors	-$89	01-12 01:53
will trump say pool during executive order signing today	5	$300	370	0	+370	Yes	+$70	03-31 21:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	6	$298	597	0	+597	No	-$270	05-24 15:05
bra fla san 2026 04 05 fla	5	$297	337	0	+337	Yes	+$40	04-05 22:02
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	8	$297	588	0	+588	No	-$224	05-26 05:06
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	2	$291	199	199	+0	No	+$28	06-10 13:14
nba mem por 2026 02 06	40	$290	226	189	+37	Trail Blazers	+$81	02-07 04:41
nba phx mia 2026 01 13	61	$287	568	0	+568	Heat	+$250	01-14 00:14
nba lac sac 2026 02 06	19	$282	146	237	-92	Clippers	-$67	02-07 05:18
nba bkn dal 2026 01 12	55	$276	459	0	+459	Mavericks	+$183	01-13 01:16
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$270	185	185	+0	No	+$44	06-10 13:14
uef ita nir 2026 03 26 draw	3	$269	360	0	+360	No	+$92	03-26 20:54
ssc fcb rmc 2026 01 11 fcb	50	$269	440	58	+382	Yes	-$108	01-11 21:03
ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 draw	3	$267	319	0	+319	No	+$53	04-08 19:19
ere her1 her 2026 04 05 her1	9	$261	363	0	+363	Yes	+$103	04-05 13:18
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$254	550	0	+550	Yes	-$204	04-04 23:07
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	5	$252	299	0	+299	No	+$47	05-24 22:18
mls tor col 2026 04 04 draw	15	$249	327	0	+327	No	+$78	04-04 17:22
nhl nj min 2026 01 12	58	$248	454	0	+454	Devils	-$124	01-12 20:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	6	$247	410	0	+410	No	+$52	05-25 21:34
will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on april 12 2026	2	$240	727	0	+727	Yes	-$240	04-14 12:45
will 60 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	4	$240	667	0	+667	No	-$240	04-14 12:45
nba hou sac 2026 01 11	19	$240	159	268	-110	Kings	-$27	01-12 04:15
cs2 ast10 fnc 2026 01 13	55	$237	427	0	+427	Astralis	+$93	01-13 18:14
cs2 ff ban5 2026 03 29	6	$236	426	0	+426	bankaPEPSI	+$190	03-29 16:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 10:31:15	chi shp ygb 2026 07 12 team total away 0pt5	Over	SELL	89	12¢	$11	0x6638dc…
08-10 10:31:09	Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	SELL	149	5¢	$7	0xd4017b…
08-10 10:31:03	Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xd33faa…
08-10 10:30:07	Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	113	0¢	$0	0x1afb51…
08-10 10:29:33	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	SELL	84	95¢	$80	0xf5e318…
07-28 10:21:58	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0xe660ff…
07-28 10:19:37	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	8	68¢	$6	0x32ce2d…
07-28 10:07:02	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x118b27…
07-28 09:35:20	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x935e82…
07-28 07:56:57	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 28?	No	BUY	12	44¢	$5	0xb29b6b…
07-28 07:55:28	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 28?	No	BUY	17	46¢	$8	0xd41b31…
07-28 07:52:04	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 28?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xd41417…
07-28 07:20:39	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 29?	No	BUY	14	66¢	$9	0x1badfa…
07-28 07:13:46	will microsoft say layoff job cut during earnings call 20260727154558557	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x8d753e…
07-28 07:00:57	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 29?	No	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x0ed308…
07-28 06:35:54	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 30?	No	BUY	40	83¢	$34	0x0b312c…
07-28 06:04:13	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	1	55¢	$1	0xd60245…
07-28 06:00:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	18	41¢	$7	0x4652c9…
07-28 05:52:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	16	41¢	$7	0xdc209b…
07-28 05:48:40	will apple say ai artificial intelligence 5 times during earnings call 20260727155548210	Yes	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x0db802…
07-28 05:28:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	12	47¢	$6	0xe649f1…
07-28 04:48:03	will meta say cloud during earnings call 20260727154156428	Yes	BUY	17	52¢	$9	0x03f0e3…
07-28 03:06:39	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 28?	No	BUY	63	50¢	$32	0xd00952…
07-28 03:06:21	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x479191…
07-28 03:05:45	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	48	72¢	$35	0x3e845b…
07-28 03:02:48	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0xacc682…
07-28 03:02:48	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$4	0x02037d…
07-28 03:02:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x5aade5…
07-28 03:02:15	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x25ebbe…
07-28 03:02:15	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	15	72¢	$11	0x2120d6…
07-28 02:31:27	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 28?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x60cceb…
07-27 22:52:00	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 27?	Yes	BUY	14	49¢	$7	0xf9ccc8…
07-27 22:51:52	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 27?	Yes	BUY	12	56¢	$7	0xdecadd…
07-27 21:58:54	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 27?	Yes	BUY	14	44¢	$6	0x59b910…
07-27 21:58:54	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 27?	Yes	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x4efd01…
07-27 21:58:46	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 27?	Yes	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x38d29b…
07-27 21:53:39	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 27?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x718be3…
07-27 21:53:39	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 27?	Yes	BUY	26	87¢	$23	0x0fb54a…
07-27 21:52:12	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 27?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xfa0859…
07-27 21:52:06	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 27?	Yes	BUY	29	81¢	$24	0x9f6fb2…
07-27 21:52:06	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 27?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x1a37a8…
07-27 20:56:19	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 27?	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xeb26e4…
07-27 20:49:31	Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?	Yes	BUY	41	54¢	$22	0xb5845a…
07-27 20:49:10	Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?	Yes	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0xa9d3b4…
07-27 20:48:19	Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$1	0x0113e9…
07-27 20:48:18	Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?	Yes	BUY	1	55¢	$0	0xfed08e…
07-27 20:48:18	Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?	Yes	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0xfec037…
07-27 20:48:18	Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?	Yes	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0xd5cbac…
07-27 20:48:18	Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?	Yes	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0x9ceb1c…
07-27 20:48:18	Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$1	0x4e7e37…
07-27 20:48:18	Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$1	0x4c02b9…
07-27 20:46:52	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 27?	No	BUY	72	56¢	$41	0xdeda24…
07-27 20:46:52	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 27?	No	BUY	17	56¢	$9	0x5b0072…
07-27 19:50:12	will trump say save america during michigan remarks 20260724162420366	Yes	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x551765…
07-27 19:03:39	rou1 fcb fcr 2026 07 27 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xa20c89…
07-27 19:03:39	rou1 fcb fcr 2026 07 27 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xa0a827…
07-27 19:02:24	will trump say nobody like him during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556638	Yes	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x1fb4d5…
07-27 18:26:19	will warsh say consumer confidence during july press conference 20260720204109053	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xeef24f…
07-27 18:10:18	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 29?	No	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0x3d1ac0…
07-27 17:59:43	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	35	58¢	$20	0xf6a843…
07-27 17:59:25	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x60b937…
07-27 17:59:25	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	14	58¢	$8	0x4a62bd…
07-27 17:51:31	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 27?	Yes	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0x30d2dc…
07-27 17:01:37	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x8f7981…
07-27 16:54:21	will trump and netanyahu hug on tuesday 20260724181151719	No	BUY	15	57¢	$8	0xa1f0bc…
07-27 16:53:40	will trump and netanyahu hug on tuesday 20260724181151719	No	BUY	12	57¢	$7	0x5fa134…
07-27 16:53:19	will trump and netanyahu hug on tuesday 20260724181151719	No	BUY	57	61¢	$35	0x833aa5…
07-27 16:52:54	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 27?	No	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x15f925…
07-27 16:52:52	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 27?	No	BUY	16	90¢	$14	0x4f0b7d…
07-27 16:51:39	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 27?	Yes	BUY	34	58¢	$19	0x201189…
07-27 16:37:21	will paypal say agentic commerce during earnings call 20260724221739515	Yes	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x35c5c2…
07-27 16:35:49	will paypal say agentic commerce during earnings call 20260724221739515	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xd0d3b3…
07-27 15:19:46	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 27?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x72d056…
07-27 15:19:15	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 27?	No	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0x76287c…
07-27 15:19:15	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 27?	No	BUY	9	83¢	$8	0x249979…
07-27 14:25:57	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 29?	No	BUY	34	84¢	$29	0x595134…
07-27 14:24:57	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 29?	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x8f8c20…
07-27 13:20:39	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x7f2ad0…
07-27 13:20:36	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x899d47…
07-27 13:20:33	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	19	86¢	$16	0xe18fa5…
07-27 12:52:27	will trump say save america during michigan remarks 20260724162420366	Yes	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x828b68…
07-27 12:29:55	will trump say fake news during michigan remarks 20260724162420374	Yes	BUY	15	78¢	$12	0x10c5a1…
07-27 12:28:58	will trump say afford or affordable or affordability during michigan remarks 20260724162420373	Yes	BUY	17	65¢	$11	0x8ecb22…
07-27 09:07:04	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	9	75¢	$7	0x64cfea…
07-27 04:51:03	will boeing say moon during earnings call 20260724221853557	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x375c02…
07-27 04:14:07	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xec4789…
07-27 04:14:07	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	17	61¢	$10	0x1649d7…
07-27 04:14:06	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	28	61¢	$17	0x050055…
07-27 04:11:04	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 27?	No	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0xcb213e…
07-27 04:01:00	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0xe2e915…
07-27 04:00:49	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	4	87¢	$3	0x956d18…
07-27 01:36:00	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 27?	No	BUY	18	60¢	$10	0xd3fc89…
07-27 01:25:45	mex pac que 2026 07 26 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x30e753…
07-27 01:03:40	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 27?	No	BUY	17	69¢	$12	0x9c1af8…
07-27 00:55:12	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 27?	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x6bd4bd…
07-27 00:54:51	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 27?	No	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0x655dc6…
07-27 00:51:21	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 27?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xe3288f…
07-27 00:48:49	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 27?	No	BUY	24	79¢	$19	0xf7606b…
07-27 00:44:42	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 27?	No	BUY	31	79¢	$25	0x4e9cca…
07-27 00:36:09	Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-07-26?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$6	0x805ac2…