Musty-Chatter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

103

lifetime

Volume

$7.44K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$72

Open exposure

$80

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-14

last 06-09 22:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

40% — —

Sports

34% 0% —

Other

24% 0% —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No		+80	$79	99¢	$79	+$0	06-02 07:45
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes		+83	$2	1¢	$1	$-1	06-09 22:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$1.3K	670	670	+0	open	—	04-16 16:27
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$1.2K	585	585	+0	No	+$0	04-15 12:52
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	3	$1.1K	584	584	+0	No	+$0	04-15 15:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	10	$467	437	437	+0	open	—	06-07 19:51
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	10	$438	435	435	+0	open	—	06-09 12:29
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	12	$333	339	339	+0	open	—	06-07 04:59
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	5	$331	183	183	+0	open	—	05-30 11:14
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	6	$316	160	160	+0	open	—	05-30 02:08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	5	$309	312	312	+0	open	—	06-06 22:31
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	5	$194	272	272	+0	open	—	05-29 05:06
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	6	$178	460	460	+0	open	—	04-23 07:55
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$175	101	101	+0	open	—	04-25 04:25
Iran leadership change by May 31?	2	$175	89	89	+0	open	—	05-29 20:02
Will Alberta join the US?	2	$169	88	88	+0	open	—	06-05 23:05
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	4	$160	153	153	+0	open	—	06-02 16:23
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	3	$154	110	110	+0	open	—	06-04 21:23
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	3	$152	84	84	+0	open	—	06-09 17:33
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	1	$79	80	0	+80	open	—	06-02 07:45
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	1	$78	81	0	+81	open	—	05-26 19:44
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$54	638	638	+0	open	—	04-17 00:28
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?	3	$53	1,273	1,273	+0	open	—	04-14 10:18
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	2	$31	36	36	+0	open	—	06-09 05:32
Iran leadership change by June 30?	4	$14	157	157	+0	open	—	06-03 16:58
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$13	542	542	+0	open	—	04-16 08:16
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	3	$3	105	105	+0	open	—	06-05 13:39
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$2	83	0	+83	open	—	06-09 22:28
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	1	$2	0	87	-87	open	—	05-31 10:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 22:28:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	83	2¢	$2	0xf780e1…
06-09 17:33:28	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	71	89¢	$63	0x32a632…
06-09 17:33:27	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	13	89¢	$12	0x6edb51…
06-09 16:11:52	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	84	92¢	$77	0x9233f6…
06-09 12:29:19	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	36	27¢	$10	0xdd38c7…
06-09 08:51:43	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	36	27¢	$10	0xb62720…
06-09 05:32:54	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	36	43¢	$15	0x96d585…
06-09 02:59:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	36	42¢	$15	0x31e8d8…
06-07 19:51:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	109	69¢	$75	0x45589b…
06-07 17:08:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x0bf99e…
06-07 17:08:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	99	69¢	$68	0xbe0412…
06-07 17:08:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x60cec5…
06-07 04:59:06	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	86	4¢	$3	0x505419…
06-07 03:26:13	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	76	4¢	$3	0xc48256…
06-07 03:26:13	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xa2ce12…
06-06 22:31:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	106	50¢	$53	0xcf0098…
06-06 22:31:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	50¢	$25	0xb7fa46…
06-06 19:58:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	155	50¢	$78	0x7d8e89…
06-05 23:05:24	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	88	96¢	$84	0x738dd0…
06-05 23:04:36	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	88	96¢	$84	0x139a72…
06-05 13:39:16	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	105	2¢	$2	0xd36a7f…
06-05 11:28:24	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	1¢	$1	0xdbf7f9…
06-05 11:28:22	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0xa9c61f…
06-05 08:58:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	157	49¢	$77	0x2442f5…
06-05 04:16:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	157	49¢	$77	0xd7cce3…
06-04 21:23:37	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	110	70¢	$77	0x316ee8…
06-04 19:44:25	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	81	70¢	$57	0xf75169…
06-04 19:44:25	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0xb54ff4…
06-04 01:12:19	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	110	70¢	$77	0xae6592…
06-03 21:30:45	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	93	70¢	$65	0x7f8111…
06-03 21:30:45	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0x64ca60…
06-03 16:58:33	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	157	4¢	$7	0x3dc992…
06-03 15:53:42	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	38	4¢	$2	0xcca484…
06-03 15:53:42	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	74	4¢	$3	0x8c571b…
06-03 15:53:42	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	45	4¢	$2	0x743368…
06-03 12:06:05	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	30¢	$2	0xec1302…
06-03 12:05:51	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	167	30¢	$50	0x85dc81…
06-03 09:58:57	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	175	31¢	$54	0x60983a…
06-03 01:39:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	114	69¢	$79	0xa94062…
06-02 23:51:07	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	114	69¢	$79	0x072565…
06-02 16:23:35	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0x587d9b…
06-02 14:16:22	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0xe0ef9e…
06-02 07:45:28	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0xbe0c5c…
06-02 04:42:22	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xd68986…
06-02 04:42:04	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0xb91a0f…
06-02 01:30:30	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0x4f0e85…
05-31 17:29:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	149	47¢	$70	0xaae6bd…
05-31 17:29:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	19	47¢	$9	0x5e66ad…
05-31 15:48:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	168	47¢	$79	0x2a5767…
05-31 10:23:57	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	87	2¢	$2	0xff126a…
05-30 18:59:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	135	49¢	$66	0xf5bc30…
05-30 18:59:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	25	49¢	$12	0x44c00d…
05-30 17:17:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	160	50¢	$80	0x23c6ea…
05-30 11:14:54	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	82	98¢	$80	0x063f0b…
05-30 11:06:21	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	82	98¢	$80	0x02f506…
05-30 07:29:02	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	73	2¢	$1	0x9dcaed…
05-30 05:02:09	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	73	2¢	$1	0xe80e3c…
05-30 02:08:19	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0xfafc60…
05-30 02:08:19	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0xa0eae0…
05-29 23:09:57	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	81	99¢	$80	0x9b4dd7…
05-29 20:02:49	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	89	98¢	$87	0x8d17e4…
05-29 20:02:02	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	89	98¢	$87	0xfa6fc5…
05-29 05:06:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x809970…
05-29 03:20:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	168	5¢	$8	0x97d123…
05-29 01:39:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	173	6¢	$10	0x189013…
05-28 21:54:48	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	55	96¢	$53	0xb9a220…
05-28 21:54:48	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	29	96¢	$28	0x16ab4a…
05-28 19:19:12	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	84	96¢	$81	0xffec0a…
05-28 14:20:25	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	89	4¢	$4	0xad8ba3…
05-28 12:45:32	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0xe36260…
05-28 12:45:32	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	61	4¢	$3	0x444017…
05-28 12:38:17	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	99	90¢	$89	0x032b70…
05-28 10:51:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	99	87¢	$86	0x3c11ba…
05-28 04:03:27	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xaecd54…
05-28 04:03:27	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	74	99¢	$73	0x0468ce…
05-28 00:13:51	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	79	99¢	$78	0xc41312…
05-26 19:44:04	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	81	96¢	$78	0x6ea245…
05-24 12:27:47	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	75	86¢	$65	0xc23589…
05-24 10:26:55	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	26	84¢	$22	0x69a244…
05-24 06:26:28	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	101	83¢	$84	0xcdb660…
04-25 04:25:00	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	101	87¢	$88	0x1767c6…
04-25 00:41:18	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	101	86¢	$87	0x940165…
04-23 07:55:48	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	8¢	$2	0x9bec18…
04-23 07:53:42	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0x911aab…
04-23 07:53:42	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	8¢	$3	0x746fc4…
04-23 07:53:42	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	312	8¢	$25	0x1214a3…
04-22 09:42:30	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	27¢	$19	0xd67812…
04-21 10:52:40	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	460	28¢	$127	0xcdc386…
04-17 00:28:56	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	638	4¢	$27	0xbae4ba…
04-16 22:12:02	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	638	4¢	$27	0xfd3425…
04-16 16:27:48	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	670	94¢	$632	0x7d5426…
04-16 15:19:00	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	670	94¢	$632	0xc8dc8a…
04-16 08:16:10	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	542	1¢	$7	0x5f1208…
04-16 07:01:18	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	542	1¢	$7	0xa9b5b0…
04-15 15:10:48	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	65	98¢	$64	0xf90d77…
04-15 15:10:48	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	519	98¢	$511	0xcd07fb…
04-15 15:01:46	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	584	98¢	$575	0x27b4c1…
04-15 12:52:52	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	74	98¢	$73	0x8ca097…
04-15 12:52:52	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	511	98¢	$502	0x87dd65…
04-15 09:05:52	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	585	98¢	$575	0xeda4be…