Unimportant-Observation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$742

Unrealized P&L

-$593

Hit rate

36.6%

Resolved

Trades

184

lifetime

Volume

$10.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$56

Open exposure

$4.77K

9 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 10-25 22:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Politics

95% 38% -$725

Other

5% 33% -$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	+4,120	$1,523	31¢	$1.3K	-$246	10-22 09:38
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	+2,686	$994	38¢	$1.0K	+$13	10-25 22:56
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	+1,202	$802	67¢	$801	-$1	10-22 20:16
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	+2,881	$605	18¢	$504	-$101	10-21 04:05
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	+2,700	$756	17¢	$459	-$297	10-18 07:29
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	+300	$225	74¢	$224	-$2	10-22 06:05
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	No	+269	$199	76¢	$204	+$5	10-19 18:00
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+900	$140	22¢	$198	+$58	10-15 14:50
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+300	$120	32¢	$96	-$24	08-05 20:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	17	$1.5K	4,120	0	+4,120	open	—	10-22 09:38
Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	6	$1.1K	858	691	+168	open	—	10-21 12:57
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$1.1K	1,393	0	+1,393	No	-$1,080	10-17 02:41
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	12	$994	2,686	0	+2,686	open	—	10-25 22:56
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	4	$802	1,202	0	+1,202	open	—	10-22 20:16
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	4	$756	2,700	0	+2,700	open	—	10-18 07:29
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	28	$623	10,796	0	+10,796	Yes	-$623	07-19 03:09
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	5	$605	2,881	0	+2,881	open	—	10-21 04:05
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	6	$505	620	620	+0	Yes	+$349	05-20 05:52
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	10	$373	5,000	5,000	+0	No	+$353	08-05 05:31
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$300	435	0	+435	Yes	-$300	10-25 20:27
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	4	$291	200	200	+0	Yes	+$106	07-10 23:55
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	2	$225	300	0	+300	open	—	10-22 06:05
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	7	$199	269	0	+269	open	—	10-19 18:00
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	2	$140	900	0	+900	open	—	10-15 14:50
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	14	$132	250	250	+0	Yes	+$73	03-14 20:28
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	3	$132	400	200	+200	No	-$68	05-27 23:13
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	12	$120	300	0	+300	open	—	08-05 20:30
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	2	$120	350	0	+350	No	-$120	08-13 17:02
Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	9	$66	126	0	+126	open	—	09-15 20:58
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?	2	$56	225	0	+225	No	-$56	06-26 22:36
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	8	$54	108	0	+108	Yes	+$54	07-08 23:34
Will Darline Graham win at least 50% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff?	1	$29	100	0	+100	Yes	-$29	08-25 23:10
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?	1	$27	300	0	+300	No	-$27	08-11 22:58
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	1	$26	530	0	+530	Yes	+$504	08-13 16:55
Will Darline Graham win at least 45% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff?	9	$19	140	0	+140	Yes	-$19	08-25 23:18
Will Dan S. Sullivan win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?	2	$9	250	250	+0	No	-$8	08-25 19:19
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	3	$8	26	0	+26	Yes	-$8	08-25 19:22
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?	1	$5	165	0	+165	Yes	+$160	08-11 01:24
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election by 0%-5%?	2	$3	63	0	+63	open	—	09-18 09:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 22:56:48	Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	446	37¢	$165	0xe6b21a…
10-25 20:27:12	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x203f6e…
10-25 20:14:45	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	430	69¢	$297	0x720f3b…
10-25 16:20:03	Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x2687a7…
10-25 12:09:05	Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	79	37¢	$29	0x032bcf…
10-25 00:28:35	Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	250	37¢	$92	0x079d40…
10-25 00:11:29	Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0xd0ef7c…
10-24 13:15:02	Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xe60704…
10-24 10:12:03	Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0x196ff9…
10-24 03:35:24	Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	192	37¢	$71	0x78b914…
10-24 03:25:00	Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	28	37¢	$10	0x6f6ad7…
10-24 03:01:32	Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	1,587	37¢	$587	0xa74a2d…
10-24 02:40:35	Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	31	37¢	$11	0xc80509…
10-22 20:53:47	Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x9bde6e…
10-22 20:16:21	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	705	65¢	$458	0xfe3bf6…
10-22 20:16:21	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	208	65¢	$135	0xf989cd…
10-22 09:38:11	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	545	34¢	$185	0x2602db…
10-22 09:34:59	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x45f3c7…
10-22 09:17:26	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0xd75b82…
10-22 08:42:50	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	455	34¢	$155	0x8b3b89…
10-22 08:03:02	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	135	34¢	$46	0x2c2867…
10-22 08:02:42	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	300	34¢	$102	0x831ab2…
10-22 08:02:42	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x081d84…
10-22 06:05:43	Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	75¢	$36	0x9be5b9…
10-22 06:05:32	Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	252	75¢	$189	0x4412af…
10-22 01:19:53	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	500	34¢	$170	0x5f2952…
10-22 00:42:18	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	303	34¢	$103	0x91e860…
10-21 23:55:20	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x5f56ca…
10-21 23:53:44	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x3b89ae…
10-21 21:15:20	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	7	34¢	$2	0x83d135…
10-21 20:15:47	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0xd4c364…
10-21 12:57:24	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Yes	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0xc1ac30…
10-21 07:41:56	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Yes	SELL	680	71¢	$483	0xfeb191…
10-21 07:15:33	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	542	41¢	$222	0x4f0dc5…
10-21 04:05:05	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	1,199	21¢	$252	0xc96da3…
10-21 03:48:27	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x9b61cd…
10-21 03:09:05	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	219	21¢	$46	0x486295…
10-21 00:40:14	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	1,100	21¢	$231	0x6d5b2b…
10-21 00:23:06	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	200	41¢	$82	0xa13729…
10-20 23:49:12	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	41¢	$410	0x84ec04…
10-20 19:56:00	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	71¢	$11	0x3b1a14…
10-20 19:51:08	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	362	21¢	$76	0x178e2f…
10-20 19:33:51	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	273	72¢	$197	0x3a9bb9…
10-19 18:00:56	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0xf5e6f3…
10-19 01:45:18	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x94c604…
10-18 07:29:41	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	28¢	$15	0x3d15b2…
10-18 07:29:23	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	28¢	$280	0xef305e…
10-18 05:44:29	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	28¢	$280	0x221683…
10-18 05:44:20	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	647	28¢	$181	0x08b5ad…
10-17 02:41:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	502	78¢	$390	0xa4f8e5…
10-17 02:41:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	97	78¢	$75	0x0b9532…
10-17 00:14:11	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	794	78¢	$615	0x60c999…
10-15 14:50:01	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	15¢	$60	0x477301…
10-11 23:11:06	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	16¢	$80	0xb76c4b…
10-09 21:55:13	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	11	74¢	$8	0x94aa39…
10-08 12:25:41	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	60	74¢	$44	0xfd6ca2…
10-08 09:40:35	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	11	74¢	$8	0xb881da…
10-08 06:48:38	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	24	74¢	$18	0xf3431c…
10-08 05:27:49	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	118	74¢	$87	0x1b324b…
09-30 15:21:56	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Yes	BUY	587	72¢	$423	0xbec4b2…
09-30 05:30:56	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Yes	BUY	13	72¢	$9	0x24271e…
09-18 09:24:45	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election by 0%-5%?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x298e93…
09-15 20:58:42	Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x053a0a…
09-11 12:24:22	Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x50749f…
09-10 00:43:31	Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x73b121…
09-04 14:53:49	will the maine 2026 senate race be within 5 20260727153827323	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x4b3523…
09-04 10:57:06	will the maine 2026 senate race be within 5 20260727153827323	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x22e05f…
09-04 09:47:09	Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf69a41…
09-04 08:55:19	Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd5b583…
08-27 11:47:52	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election by 0%-5%?	Yes	BUY	58	5¢	$3	0xc3c263…
08-25 23:18:36	Will Darline Graham win at least 45% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff?	No	BUY	0	13¢	$0	0xd935b4…
08-25 23:18:34	Will Darline Graham win at least 45% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff?	No	BUY	24	13¢	$3	0x5f4ac2…
08-25 23:17:21	Will Darline Graham win at least 45% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff?	No	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0xd152ad…
08-25 23:17:21	Will Darline Graham win at least 45% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff?	No	BUY	3	13¢	$0	0x08be8e…
08-25 23:11:07	Will Darline Graham win at least 45% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff?	No	BUY	2	13¢	$0	0x7e78f7…
08-25 23:11:06	Will Darline Graham win at least 45% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff?	No	BUY	11	14¢	$2	0xcceff5…
08-25 23:10:49	Will Darline Graham win at least 50% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff?	No	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x3178fd…
08-25 22:53:07	Will Darline Graham win at least 45% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff?	No	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x6cfb15…
08-25 21:03:25	Will Darline Graham win at least 45% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff?	No	BUY	0	14¢	$0	0xe3b6b5…
08-25 21:01:39	Will Darline Graham win at least 45% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff?	No	BUY	87	14¢	$12	0xc03bc5…
08-25 19:22:15	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0x6e6cb1…
08-25 19:21:57	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	BUY	11	31¢	$3	0x5bf552…
08-25 19:21:55	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0xc06352…
08-25 19:19:04	Will Dan S. Sullivan win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?	Yes	SELL	250	0¢	$1	0xe5f0d4…
08-19 15:00:52	will the maine 2026 senate race be within 5 20260727153827323	Yes	BUY	12	60¢	$7	0x564e56…
08-19 01:43:58	will the texas 2026 senate race be within 5 20260727153827322	Yes	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0xfae57a…
08-19 01:19:09	will the texas 2026 senate race be within 5 20260727153827322	Yes	BUY	258	72¢	$186	0xbbdb0a…
08-19 01:07:54	Will Dan S. Sullivan win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?	Yes	BUY	250	4¢	$9	0x1ac51b…
08-13 17:02:28	Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	BUY	300	34¢	$103	0x29ce28…
08-13 17:01:22	Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0xf83b07…
08-13 16:55:07	Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	BUY	530	5¢	$26	0xbb19f8…
08-11 22:58:40	Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	300	9¢	$27	0x60ef95…
08-11 01:24:09	Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	165	3¢	$5	0xfa5a26…
08-05 20:30:06	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	165	40¢	$66	0x659642…
08-05 20:30:02	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xf82452…
08-05 20:30:02	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xdc549e…
08-05 20:13:59	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xeee0a2…
08-05 20:13:59	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	40¢	$18	0xe53fe0…
08-05 20:05:48	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x50b924…
08-05 19:30:51	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0xeab61b…