Nocturnal-Counterforce — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$98

Unrealized P&L

-$15

Hit rate

53.3%

Resolved

136

Trades

295

lifetime

Volume

$2.48K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-16

last 10-29 17:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Other

88% 53% +$55

Politics

11% 0% -$159

Tech

1% 100% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 85 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes		+62	$17	3¢	$2	-$15	10-13 18:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Strategy (MSTR) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$123	85	85	+0	Yes	-$38	10-29 17:43
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?	2	$106	58	58	+0	Yes	+$9	06-01 16:14
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	3	$96	60	60	+0	Yes	-$8	10-29 14:13
Will Honeywell (HON) beat quarterly earnings?	3	$82	105	0	+105	Yes	+$23	10-21 17:02
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	2	$60	56	56	+0	No	+$17	06-01 16:13
Will Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$53	190	0	+190	No	+$137	10-23 13:39
Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings?	4	$44	147	100	+47	Yes	+$10	10-29 14:13
Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q3 Zepbound sales be above $4.5B?	3	$44	35	15	+20	Yes	+$5	10-29 10:45
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	1	$41	61	0	+61	Yes	+$20	05-17 19:17
Will Moody's (MCO) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$39	48	0	+48	No	-$39	10-18 21:44
Will Marriott (MAR) Q3 worldwide RevPAR be above $135.5?	4	$38	117	0	+117	Yes	-$38	10-29 15:29
Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $8.4B?	5	$38	100	100	+0	Yes	-$16	10-29 17:43
Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Data Center & AI revenue be above $7B?	2	$35	60	0	+60	Yes	-$35	10-28 15:35
Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Foundry revenue be above $7B?	1	$33	40	0	+40	No	+$7	10-28 14:29
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?	1	$31	170	0	+170	No	-$31	05-31 20:49
Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Mac revenue be above $10B?	4	$31	40	40	+0	Yes	+$4	10-23 22:39
Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$30	91	0	+91	Yes	+$61	05-16 18:11
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	1	$30	68	0	+68	No	-$30	10-13 18:00
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?	1	$29	58	0	+58	No	-$29	10-13 18:00
Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 11.5% to 12.5%?	1	$28	100	0	+100	No	-$28	10-28 14:29
Will Visa (V) beat quarterly earnings?	3	$28	108	0	+108	No	+$80	10-22 19:32
Will Tesla say "AI" / "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times during earnings call?	1	$28	50	0	+50	Yes	+$22	10-21 12:08
Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Services revenue be above $31B?	2	$26	20	20	+0	Yes	+$3	10-23 22:15
McDonald's (MCD) Q3 global comparable sales growth 1% to 2%?	2	$26	30	30	+0	Yes	-$1	10-28 15:36
Will Hilton (HLT) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$25	138	0	+138	Yes	-$25	10-22 19:33
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?	1	$24	135	0	+135	No	-$24	10-13 18:01
Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $7.6B?	2	$24	40	0	+40	Yes	+$16	10-28 15:36
Will Ally (ALLY) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$24	43	0	+43	No	-$24	10-17 22:32
Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$24	65	0	+65	Yes	-$24	10-28 17:57
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	3	$23	30	0	+30	Yes	+$7	10-21 20:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:43:17	Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $8.4B?	Yes	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0xce3c42…
10-29 17:43:14	Will Strategy (MSTR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	85	50¢	$43	0x849c24…
10-29 15:30:52	Will Lyft (LYFT) Q3 rides be above 285M?	No	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0x89196e…
10-29 15:30:41	CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 92% to 93.5%?	No	BUY	23	77¢	$18	0x77f152…
10-29 15:30:34	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 90% to 92%?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x856933…
10-29 15:30:19	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth <-0.5%?	No	BUY	28	82¢	$23	0x72529c…
10-29 15:30:10	Will Booking (BKNG) Q3 gross bookings be above $57B?	No	BUY	24	96¢	$23	0x60c3e2…
10-29 15:29:34	Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $8B?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xc0f961…
10-29 15:29:25	Will Marriott (MAR) Q3 worldwide RevPAR be above $135.5?	No	BUY	60	35¢	$21	0xb5e464…
10-29 15:29:10	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Wearables, Home and Accessories revenue be above $8.5B?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x66dec9…
10-29 15:28:49	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Services revenue be above $33B?	No	BUY	16	90¢	$14	0xe7d89f…
10-29 15:28:16	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Mac revenue be above $9.5B?	No	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xa51ceb…
10-29 15:28:05	Will ExxonMobil (XOM) Q3 oil-equivalent barrels per day net production (koebd) be above 4.2M?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x8462bc…
10-29 15:27:55	Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $6.25B?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x626495…
10-29 15:27:43	Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Foundry revenue be above $6B?	No	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0x850df7…
10-29 15:27:20	Will Strategy (MSTR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	85	95¢	$81	0x61587f…
10-29 14:14:56	Will Marriott (MAR) Q3 worldwide RevPAR be above $135.5?	No	BUY	17	31¢	$5	0x48d043…
10-29 14:14:56	Will Marriott (MAR) Q3 worldwide RevPAR be above $135.5?	No	BUY	23	31¢	$7	0x481ec5…
10-29 14:14:34	Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Foundry revenue be above $7.5B?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x889f80…
10-29 14:14:05	Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $5.75B?	Yes	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0x42e13c…
10-29 14:13:26	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	38	73¢	$28	0xa3915e…
10-29 14:13:11	Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	100	27¢	$27	0x27cc1f…
10-29 12:01:28	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5% to 9.5%?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0xd0639e…
10-29 10:45:05	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q3 Zepbound sales be above $4.5B?	Yes	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0x4fac94…
10-29 09:53:05	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 9.5%+?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x436a65…
10-29 09:52:44	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 9.5%+?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x3781c3…
10-29 09:52:20	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 9.5%+?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xc0fc5d…
10-29 09:51:40	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 9.5%+?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x86db7d…
10-29 04:04:23	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5% to 9.5%?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xd6baf8…
10-29 03:43:56	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5% to 9.5%?	Yes	BUY	19	8¢	$2	0xf539d8…
10-28 21:46:55	Will Marriott (MAR) Q3 worldwide RevPAR be above $135.5?	No	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xb7e206…
10-28 21:46:47	Will Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	16	33¢	$5	0x162695…
10-28 21:46:19	Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Data Center & AI revenue be above $6.5B?	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xe99d0b…
10-28 21:46:11	Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $8.4B?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xa493d4…
10-28 21:46:02	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 88% to 90%?	Yes	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0xb95e15…
10-28 21:46:02	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 88% to 90%?	Yes	BUY	13	7¢	$1	0x7b663d…
10-28 21:46:02	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 88% to 90%?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x50c5c2…
10-28 21:45:44	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5% to 9.5%?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x98dcf0…
10-28 21:45:43	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5% to 9.5%?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x782e23…
10-28 17:59:53	Will Williams (WMB) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0x21ac36…
10-28 17:59:40	Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0xe50c70…
10-28 17:59:07	Will Tradeweb (TW) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xab1f9f…
10-28 17:58:43	Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	27	51¢	$14	0x0d6992…
10-28 17:58:26	Will O'Reilly (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	11	80¢	$9	0xb8535e…
10-28 17:58:07	Will Google (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	22	79¢	$17	0x08090f…
10-28 17:57:52	Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	65	37¢	$24	0x4b1441…
10-28 15:50:44	Will Airbnb (ABNB) Q3 gross booking value be above $26.6B?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x55e837…
10-28 15:50:31	Will Merck (MRK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	51	12¢	$6	0x8801a2…
10-28 15:50:05	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	22	73¢	$16	0x5aea62…
10-28 15:37:38	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 iPad revenue be above $6.5B?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xe6ce44…
10-28 15:36:40	Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $7.6B?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x625efc…
10-28 15:36:23	McDonald's (MCD) Q3 global comparable sales growth 1% to 2%?	No	SELL	30	41¢	$12	0xc05c55…
10-28 15:36:14	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5% to 9.5%?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x35c69d…
10-28 15:36:10	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 7.5% to 8.5%?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xd9f4dd…
10-28 15:36:10	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 7.5% to 8.5%?	Yes	BUY	18	47¢	$9	0x5903f0…
10-28 15:35:56	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5% to 9.5%?	Yes	BUY	140	8¢	$11	0x176026…
10-28 15:35:29	Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Foundry revenue be above $6B?	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x53af21…
10-28 15:35:19	Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Data Center & AI revenue be above $7B?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0xcb0759…
10-28 14:57:49	Will Qualcomm (QCOM) Q4 QCT chip revenue be above $9.5B?	No	BUY	18	89¢	$16	0x70a00f…
10-28 14:57:37	Will Lyft (LYFT) Q3 rides be above 295M?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x0afcd7…
10-28 14:57:16	McDonald's (MCD) Q3 global comparable sales growth 1% to 2%?	No	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0x25ad24…
10-28 14:52:28	Will Airbnb (ABNB) Q3 gross booking value be above $26.2B?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x1df069…
10-28 14:52:17	CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 90.5% to 92%?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x8a220d…
10-28 14:51:53	Will Booking (BKNG) Q3 gross bookings be above $51B?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x748d74…
10-28 14:51:46	Will Booking (BKNG) Q3 gross bookings be above $53B?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x1b9b97…
10-28 14:51:25	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 iPhone revenue be above $55.5B?	Yes	BUY	15	78¢	$12	0x4a559c…
10-28 14:51:16	Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $7.6B?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xee97c9…
10-28 14:51:07	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Greater China revenue be above $20B?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xf09ad7…
10-28 14:51:01	Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $8.4B?	Yes	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0x8df454…
10-28 14:51:01	Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $8.4B?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x792b0d…
10-28 14:50:37	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 iPhone revenue be above $60B?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x04ce78…
10-28 14:44:17	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 iPad revenue be above $7.5B?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x141133…
10-28 14:44:05	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Greater China revenue be above $18B?	Yes	BUY	22	41¢	$9	0x198952…
10-28 14:43:58	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Services revenue be above $32.5B?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xec2424…
10-28 14:43:50	Will Marriott (MAR) Q3 worldwide RevPAR be above $137?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xe205eb…
10-28 14:41:44	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 10.5% to 11.5%?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x467fcc…
10-28 14:41:31	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 7% to 9%?	No	BUY	40	38¢	$15	0x2d9eba…
10-28 14:41:25	Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $5.75B?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xecf1d4…
10-28 14:38:20	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q3 Zepbound sales be above $4.5B?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xdd07b5…
10-28 14:38:08	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q3 Mounjaro sales be above $10B?	No	BUY	40	14¢	$6	0xeaa321…
10-28 14:37:56	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q3 Mounjaro sales be above $12B?	No	BUY	22	88¢	$19	0xcc13aa…
10-28 14:37:49	Will Altria (MO) Q3 total domestic cigarettes shipment volume (sticks in billions) be above 15.5B?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x5a2a21…
10-28 14:35:35	Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Data Center & AI revenue be above $7B?	No	BUY	40	57¢	$23	0x52f1d6…
10-28 14:35:17	Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Foundry revenue be above $6.5B?	No	BUY	31	58¢	$18	0x0b1e03…
10-28 14:35:07	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q3 Mounjaro sales be above $11B?	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0xf38352…
10-28 14:34:53	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q3 Zepbound sales be above $5.5B?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x7f9085…
10-28 14:29:43	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) <6.5%?	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0xabc6a4…
10-28 14:29:34	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 11.5% to 12.5%?	Yes	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0xc14ffd…
10-28 14:29:23	Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Foundry revenue be above $7B?	No	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0xc62a55…
10-28 14:24:13	Will T-Mobile (TMUS) Q3 total service revenues be above $19.1B?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x424d6b…
10-28 14:22:55	Will Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 total capital expenditures be above $56B?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x69d1b6…
10-23 22:39:17	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Mac revenue be above $10B?	Yes	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x3d5288…
10-23 22:15:26	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Services revenue be above $31B?	Yes	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xb42555…
10-23 22:05:50	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Mac revenue be above $10B?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x3ad03a…
10-23 18:39:53	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Mac revenue be above $10B?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xb93594…
10-23 16:41:36	Will Google (GOOGL) Q3 Cloud Revenue be above $29B?	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x7bbcd3…
10-23 16:39:09	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Mac revenue be above $10B?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x479222…
10-23 16:29:26	Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $8.4B?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x5853c4…
10-23 16:28:17	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Services revenue be above $31B?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x5a0f35…
10-23 16:26:24	Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Foundry revenue be above $6B?	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xf9a6d8…