Distant-Occasion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$126

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

99.4%

Resolved

Trades

2,257

lifetime

Volume

$478.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$212

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 14:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 100% +$41

Other

5% 86% +$1

Politics

2% 100% +$81

Sports

0% 77% +$3

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No		+11	$10	92¢	$10	+$0	05-28 08:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 74k on february 6	13	$8.5K	4,320	4,320	+0	open	—	02-06 10:20
bitcoin above 72k on march 3	5	$8.0K	4,324	4,324	+0	open	—	03-03 09:30
bitcoin above 96k on january 13	6	$6.7K	4,520	2,213	+2,307	open	—	01-13 12:15
bitcoin above 74k on march 14	11	$6.1K	4,077	2,072	+2,005	open	—	03-14 07:47
will ethereum reach 3600 january 12 18	2	$4.8K	2,407	2,407	+0	open	—	01-18 23:23
bitcoin above 88k on january 30	10	$4.6K	2,314	2,314	+0	open	—	01-30 11:11
will bitcoin reach 102k january 19 25	7	$4.6K	2,332	2,332	+0	open	—	01-21 08:02
bitcoin above 82k on february 1	4	$4.6K	2,309	2,309	+0	open	—	02-01 15:18
ethereum above 3400 on january 17	2	$4.6K	2,306	2,306	+0	open	—	01-17 16:16
bitcoin above 86k on january 31	2	$4.6K	2,305	2,305	+0	open	—	01-31 15:09
bitcoin above 92k on january 23	11	$4.5K	2,319	2,319	+0	open	—	01-23 08:27
will bitcoin reach 106k january 12 18	8	$4.5K	2,261	2,261	+0	open	—	01-16 09:14
bitcoin above 74k on march 10	2	$4.4K	2,215	2,215	+0	open	—	03-10 16:39
bitcoin above 74k on march 12	2	$4.4K	2,217	2,217	+0	open	—	03-12 12:42
bitcoin above 92k on january 21	7	$4.4K	2,267	2,267	+0	open	—	01-21 11:08
bitcoin above 70k on february 11	14	$4.4K	2,253	2,253	+0	open	—	02-11 09:18
will ethereum reach 3400 december 29 january 4	2	$4.4K	2,230	2,230	+0	open	—	01-01 13:03
will bitcoin reach 94k december 29 january 4	21	$4.4K	2,222	2,222	+0	open	—	01-04 23:19
bitcoin above 68k on february 24	4	$4.4K	2,207	2,207	+0	open	—	02-24 12:21
bitcoin above 72k on february 8	12	$4.4K	2,296	2,296	+0	open	—	02-08 15:29
bitcoin above 92k on january 25	2	$4.4K	2,207	2,207	+0	open	—	01-25 11:27
bitcoin above 96k on january 12	9	$4.4K	2,204	2,204	+0	open	—	01-12 12:15
bitcoin above 92k on january 27	9	$4.4K	2,207	2,207	+0	open	—	01-27 10:07
bitcoin above 72k on february 14	5	$4.4K	2,213	2,213	+0	open	—	02-14 14:19
bitcoin above 92k on january 26	2	$4.4K	2,203	2,203	+0	open	—	01-26 10:27
will ethereum reach 3400 january 5 11	2	$4.4K	2,203	2,203	+0	open	—	01-11 22:39
bitcoin above 94k on january 28	7	$4.4K	2,202	2,202	+0	open	—	01-28 14:34
will ethereum reach 3900 january 19 25	2	$4.4K	2,205	2,205	+0	open	—	01-20 09:21
bitcoin above 74k on april 9	11	$4.2K	2,113	2,112	+1	open	—	04-09 13:16
bitcoin above 72k on february 10	2	$4.2K	2,108	2,108	+0	open	—	02-10 16:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 07:43:01	wta aksu snigur 2026 07 22	Daria Snigur	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x48f7d5…
07-22 07:40:46	bitcoin above 68k on july 22 2026	No	BUY	1,013	99¢	$1,000	0xef794a…
07-21 14:37:43	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	67	87¢	$58	0x134615…
07-20 10:21:49	bitcoin above 68k on july 20 2026	No	SELL	997	100¢	$996	0xddb2c7…
07-20 10:21:01	bitcoin above 68k on july 20 2026	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe54ef5…
07-20 06:44:55	bitcoin above 68k on july 20 2026	No	BUY	1,002	100¢	$1,000	0xdb153f…
07-19 18:07:43	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x53e845…
07-18 09:09:27	will bitcoin reach 68k on july 18	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x14212d…
07-18 09:04:33	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	England	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x441596…
07-15 11:18:44	bitcoin above 68k on july 15 2026	No	SELL	1,004	100¢	$1,003	0xeced19…
07-15 08:16:29	bitcoin above 68k on july 15 2026	No	BUY	1,004	100¢	$1,000	0xf8dc0d…
07-13 13:26:29	bitcoin above 66k on july 13 2026	No	SELL	1,005	100¢	$1,004	0x04fff7…
07-13 08:19:28	bitcoin above 66k on july 13 2026	No	BUY	1,005	99¢	$1,000	0x076d7d…
07-11 09:06:01	bitcoin above 66k on july 11 2026	No	BUY	1,102	100¢	$1,100	0x3a1d2b…
07-10 10:28:41	bitcoin above 68k on july 10 2026	No	BUY	1,002	100¢	$1,000	0x547431…
07-09 11:19:16	bitcoin above 66k on july 9 2026	No	SELL	1,003	100¢	$1,002	0x25bf99…
07-09 08:01:55	bitcoin above 66k on july 9 2026	No	BUY	1,003	100¢	$1,000	0xc398e1…
07-09 07:56:50	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x8e2fda…
07-08 14:36:50	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x25e066…
07-08 12:38:55	will trump say nato 10 times during press conference 20260707192103047	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x2eeba3…
07-08 12:32:43	bitcoin above 66k on july 8 2026	No	SELL	1,100	100¢	$1,099	0x01c0ee…
07-08 12:21:55	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x12ff39…
07-08 09:28:01	bitcoin above 66k on july 8 2026	No	BUY	1,100	100¢	$1,098	0xbdc38c…
07-06 12:30:16	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x7d1dde…
07-04 18:19:49	will the announcers say ref or referee 10 times during the canada vs morocco fifa world cup match 20260703211750029	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xfa089a…
07-04 17:26:59	will the announcers say ref or referee 10 times during the canada vs morocco fifa world cup match 20260703211750029	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x2ee377…
07-04 16:44:17	will the announcers say ref or referee 10 times during the canada vs morocco fifa world cup match 20260703211750029	Yes	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xed0cf3…
07-04 11:43:25	bitcoin above 64k on july 4 2026	No	SELL	1,015	100¢	$1,010	0xa44e90…
07-04 08:02:11	will the announcers say foul 5 times during the canada vs morocco fifa world cup match 20260703211750031	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x50e821…
07-04 07:44:47	bitcoin above 64k on july 4 2026	No	BUY	1,015	98¢	$1,000	0x985696…
07-02 12:59:20	bitcoin above 64k on july 2 2026	No	SELL	1,007	100¢	$1,003	0xaa55c8…
07-02 10:21:28	bitcoin above 64k on july 2 2026	No	BUY	1,007	99¢	$1,000	0xa87cb9…
07-01 07:32:13	will ansem dip to 0pt08 before 2027	Yes	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0xc113a0…
06-30 19:32:29	will the announcers say goal 50 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526246	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x0e0cbd…
06-30 19:32:28	will the announcers say goal 50 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526246	Yes	BUY	18	66¢	$12	0xec9dac…
06-30 19:32:28	will the announcers say goal 50 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526246	Yes	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0xd80d35…
06-30 19:32:28	will the announcers say goal 50 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526246	Yes	BUY	4	67¢	$2	0xb2fa33…
06-30 19:32:28	will the announcers say goal 50 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526246	Yes	BUY	8	67¢	$5	0x3e0a6a…
06-30 19:32:28	will the announcers say goal 50 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526246	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x0d151e…
06-30 07:52:22	will ansem dip to 0pt08 before 2027	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xf91689…
06-29 13:36:07	bitcoin above 64k on june 29 2026	No	SELL	1,005	100¢	$1,004	0xe6c3db…
06-29 07:28:02	bitcoin above 64k on june 29 2026	No	BUY	1,005	100¢	$1,000	0x4014a8…
06-28 15:51:44	bitcoin above 60k on june 28 2026	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x16dbed…
06-27 09:47:56	bitcoin above 60k on june 27 2026	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x1773a6…
06-25 13:38:29	bitcoin above 64k on june 25 2026	No	SELL	1,004	100¢	$1,002	0xaf598b…
06-25 13:37:19	bitcoin above 64k on june 25 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd99cfa…
06-25 08:40:01	bitcoin above 64k on june 25 2026	No	BUY	1,005	100¢	$1,000	0x58f1fd…
06-23 17:23:22	will the announcers say qatar during the portugal vs uzbekistan fifa world cup match 20260622180548671	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xa6c954…
06-23 10:55:29	bitcoin above 66k on june 23 2026	No	SELL	1,002	100¢	$1,001	0x3b186c…
06-23 08:09:50	will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the us by june 30 2026	No	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x423679…
06-23 08:09:10	bitcoin above 64k on june 23 2026	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xf071fb…
06-23 08:08:04	bitcoin above 66k on june 23 2026	No	BUY	1,002	100¢	$1,000	0xf76d88…
06-22 19:11:05	will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the us by june 30 2026	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xe136f9…
06-22 08:57:58	bitcoin above 68k on june 22 2026	No	SELL	1,002	100¢	$1,001	0x8948e3…
06-22 07:22:28	bitcoin above 64k on june 22 2026	No	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x85a6bd…
06-22 07:21:22	bitcoin above 66k on june 22 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x545337…
06-22 07:19:58	bitcoin above 68k on june 22 2026	No	BUY	1,002	100¢	$1,000	0xc48fa1…
06-21 12:26:32	bitcoin above 66k on june 21 2026	No	SELL	1,006	100¢	$1,002	0xc2a0c6…
06-21 11:09:52	bitcoin above 66k on june 21 2026	No	BUY	1,006	99¢	$1,000	0x1b8c5d…
06-19 10:35:04	bitcoin above 66k on june 19 2026	No	SELL	1,002	100¢	$1,001	0x184f5d…
06-19 07:21:43	bitcoin above 62k on june 19 2026	No	BUY	25	18¢	$4	0xd7cc7a…
06-19 07:09:05	bitcoin above 66k on june 19 2026	No	BUY	1,002	100¢	$1,000	0x619d3c…
06-18 14:54:56	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x3ba7c9…
06-17 07:25:47	bitcoin above 68k on june 17 2026	Yes	BUY	66	2¢	$1	0x79a396…
06-17 07:25:01	bitcoin above 64k on june 17 2026	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x84c7f3…
06-16 17:13:52	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xed8950…
06-16 09:41:07	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x63fc86…
06-16 06:39:58	bitcoin above 66k on june 16 2026	Yes	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xe1a9fb…
06-14 12:35:58	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x0817c0…
06-14 12:35:55	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x8db440…
06-14 12:26:27	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xf8efc9…
06-14 12:26:24	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xb67f1b…
06-14 11:56:36	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x53330e…
06-14 11:56:34	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xaea513…
06-14 11:56:33	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x32fbe8…
06-14 11:56:31	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xd207cd…
06-14 11:56:30	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	1	58¢	$1	0x699636…
06-14 06:40:46	bitcoin above 68k on june 14 2026	No	BUY	1,002	100¢	$1,000	0x086c6e…
06-14 06:40:16	bitcoin above 66k on june 14 2026	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x33a7c1…
06-14 06:39:55	bitcoin above 64k on june 14 2026	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xf96536…
06-12 15:58:43	bitcoin above 66k on june 13 2026	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0xdc4f4f…
06-12 15:57:22	bitcoin above 64k on june 12 2026	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5a49cb…
06-12 15:55:07	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	100	74¢	$74	0x533909…
06-12 15:53:42	bkbbl fc alb 2026 06 12	FC Bayern Munchen	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xcd1c9b…
06-12 15:53:07	atp romano jones 2026 06 11	Jack Pinnington Jones	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x6a2f71…
06-11 21:52:16	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xad07e6…
06-11 18:46:28	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x0f9417…
06-11 17:34:55	bkligend val jov 2026 06 12	Valencia	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xbd2260…
06-11 17:34:13	bkligend bar la 2026 06 11	Barcelona	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x429715…
06-11 17:33:30	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Spurs	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x7d4d5b…
06-11 17:29:28	will iran close its airspace by august 31 20260609184136057	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x6cdc58…
06-10 20:48:27	bitcoin above 68k on june 11 2026	No	SELL	773	100¢	$772	0xab5092…
06-10 20:47:52	bitcoin above 68k on june 11 2026	No	SELL	230	100¢	$229	0xbb4d50…
06-10 17:25:12	bitcoin above 68k on june 11 2026	No	BUY	1,002	100¢	$1,000	0x8bf0e7…
06-10 17:23:24	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	Yes	SELL	50	63¢	$32	0x7e0791…
06-10 14:07:42	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	Yes	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0x8b0276…
06-10 11:07:06	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xc3f4fd…
06-10 10:03:37	bitcoin above 62k on june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x065c22…
06-10 06:52:16	bkligend val jov 2026 06 10	Valencia	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x88bac8…
06-08 17:07:30	bitcoin above 64k on june 8 2026	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x0ff40c…