Fatal-Airforce — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$71

Unrealized P&L

+$49

Hit rate

88.7%

Resolved

278

Trades

694

lifetime

Volume

$35.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$50

Open exposure

$526

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-13

last 10-19 17:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 76 days

Categories

Other

68% 94% +$145

Politics

15% 69% +$52

Sports

9% 67% -$332

Tech

6% 100% +$53

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Databricks IPO before 2027?	No		+342	$305	98¢	$335	+$30	10-19 17:43
Trump out as President before 2027?	No		+200	$172	96¢	$192	+$20	05-01 04:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	6	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-03 08:45
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?	2	$985	0	1,000	-1,000	No	-$15	05-24 08:32
will jensen huang say ai or artificial intelligence 10 times at the nvidia gtc keynote	4	$960	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$40	03-14 20:43
victor munoz 20260609173616778	7	$734	372	372	+0	No	+$9	06-15 17:13
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1m barrels per day in 2026?	13	$647	715	0	+715	Yes	+$68	05-11 07:36
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	4	$606	350	350	+0	open	—	06-01 19:05
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	2	$598	300	300	+0	No	+$1	06-02 15:37
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	3	$589	100	500	-400	No	-$7	06-12 11:48
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	6	$580	600	0	+600	No	+$20	03-13 23:11
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	10	$535	269	269	+0	No	+$3	06-12 15:22
elliot anderson 20260609175104686	2	$527	530	0	+530	Yes	+$3	06-17 18:50
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	7	$508	500	500	+0	cancelled	$0	05-14 10:24
white house of tweets april 14 april 21 2026 100 119	2	$490	507	0	+507	No	+$17	04-13 16:38
will powell say comment during march press conference 427 989	13	$484	566	566	+0	No	-$473	03-18 20:15
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	3	$480	491	0	+491	No	+$10	06-02 15:39
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?	3	$479	496	0	+496	open	—	07-14 05:10
sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	1	$464	500	0	+500	No	+$36	03-14 16:24
nico williams 20260609173616770	5	$443	507	0	+507	No	+$64	06-14 22:14
Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in July 2026?	3	$421	219	219	+0	No	+$1	06-07 00:53
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	2	$394	400	0	+400	No	+$6	06-01 11:56
white house of tweets march 20 march 27 2026 60 79	1	$370	385	0	+385	No	+$15	03-20 13:46
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	9	$361	208	208	+0	No	+$1	06-10 03:41
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	5	$358	371	0	+371	No	+$13	06-09 17:25
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	2	$342	200	200	+0	open	—	06-18 18:24
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	6	$336	350	0	+350	Yes	+$14	05-29 02:58
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	4	$333	350	0	+350	No	+$17	05-31 03:14
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	2	$330	200	200	+0	open	—	05-08 23:15
Revolut IPO before 2027?	9	$328	331	29	+302	open	—	10-01 00:23
Databricks IPO before 2027?	10	$316	347	5	+342	open	—	10-19 17:43
joshua kimmich 20260609173253874	2	$295	150	150	+0	Yes	+$4	06-14 17:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 17:43:47	Databricks IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xdbb853…
10-01 00:23:23	Revolut IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$9	0x75b70e…
09-27 23:29:27	Revolut IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	19	98¢	$19	0x9a6a1b…
09-17 16:24:13	Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xbb9352…
09-10 09:31:28	Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1300?	No	SELL	88	100¢	$88	0x0f94d3…
09-03 23:23:46	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x196fe0…
09-03 23:23:19	SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x18c785…
07-27 11:22:01	Revolut IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x8d97b1…
07-23 10:01:49	Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x20affa…
07-21 14:45:31	Databricks IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	187	89¢	$167	0xe72b54…
07-14 15:21:28	Databricks IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0x964515…
07-14 14:09:05	Databricks IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xaf4fd6…
07-14 09:33:43	will revoluts valuation hit low 60b by december 31 20260701011444459	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x8e63fe…
07-14 09:33:37	will revoluts valuation hit low 60b by december 31 20260701011444459	No	BUY	36	95¢	$34	0xf877d2…
07-14 09:31:08	will revoluts valuation hit low 60b by december 31 20260701011444459	No	BUY	190	94¢	$178	0x6f7912…
07-14 09:17:07	Databricks IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	51	90¢	$46	0x7ae369…
07-14 09:16:53	Databricks IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x759f5e…
07-14 09:16:46	Databricks IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0xde753b…
07-14 09:16:41	Databricks IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0x60ff2d…
07-14 09:16:26	Databricks IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x6d8c57…
07-14 09:16:23	Databricks IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x79b231…
07-14 05:10:01	Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?	No	BUY	362	97¢	$350	0x249bf7…
07-14 05:09:49	Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?	No	BUY	125	96¢	$121	0xbddbd7…
07-14 05:09:29	Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0x6cb5f7…
07-10 13:37:49	will the announcers say penalty 5 times during the spain vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260708215901497	Yes	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0xd58b98…
07-10 13:37:31	will the announcers say messi during the norway vs england fifa world cup match 20260710011543766	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x358368…
07-10 13:36:43	will the announcers say viking during the norway vs england fifa world cup match 20260710011543751	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xd960c4…
07-07 17:22:47	will revoluts valuation hit low 70b by december 31 20260701011444458	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x93cb56…
07-07 17:22:43	will revoluts valuation hit low 70b by december 31 20260701011444458	No	BUY	60	86¢	$52	0x50ffa7…
07-07 17:22:37	will revoluts valuation hit low 70b by december 31 20260701011444458	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xff0c32…
07-07 05:16:38	will pepsico say fiscal 5 times during earnings call 20260703193548729	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x9fa3a1…
07-06 18:54:53	will dai dai be played during the world cup finals halftime show 20260704165922770	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xe0cd6b…
07-06 15:27:58	will pepsico say margin during earnings call 20260703193548731	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x19f92e…
07-06 15:11:53	will dai dai be played during the world cup finals halftime show 20260704165922770	Yes	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0x7321b4…
07-06 15:11:46	will dai dai be played during the world cup finals halftime show 20260704165922770	Yes	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0x3f5c58…
07-05 20:01:11	will the announcers say save or saves 5 times during the brazil vs norway fifa world cup match 20260705030913596	Yes	BUY	19	64¢	$12	0x4f469b…
07-03 00:58:41	will the announcers say long ball during the portugal vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260701163644157	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x32f7a5…
07-02 15:02:16	will the announcers say foul 10 times during the portugal vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260701163644153	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x755aad…
07-02 00:42:08	will the announcers say corner 10 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526248	Yes	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x3e79ca…
07-02 00:15:53	will the announcers say shot 10 times during the portugal vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260701163644152	Yes	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0xdb2039…
07-01 23:11:04	will the announcers say corner 10 times during the usa vs bosnia herzegovina fifa world cup match 20260630205154106	Yes	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0x0fe4a2…
07-01 22:29:10	will the announcers say foul 10 times during the spain vs austria fifa world cup match 20260701163439791	Yes	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0xb95ea7…
07-01 21:18:49	will the announcers say shot 10 times during the spain vs austria fifa world cup match 20260701163439790	Yes	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0xcd64a5…
07-01 07:42:23	will the announcers say corner 10 times during the england vs dr congo fifa world cup match 20260630205034674	Yes	BUY	37	80¢	$30	0x87aa11…
07-01 02:08:43	will the announcers say shot 10 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526247	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xa5946c…
06-30 23:18:37	will the announcers say offside or offsides during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526254	Yes	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0x69148f…
06-30 21:39:56	will trump say six seven in july 20260629200910972	Yes	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0x26676f…
06-30 19:06:14	will the announcers say shot 10 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526247	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x4b66ac…
06-30 19:06:10	will the announcers say shot 10 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526247	Yes	BUY	75	72¢	$54	0xc040f0…
06-30 19:05:59	will the announcers say shot 10 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526247	Yes	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0xc35660…
06-30 19:05:16	will the announcers say offside or offsides during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526254	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xad3b2f…
06-30 19:05:10	will the announcers say offside or offsides during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526254	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x6d6948…
06-30 19:05:05	will the announcers say offside or offsides during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526254	Yes	BUY	60	89¢	$53	0x3333cd…
06-30 19:04:59	will the announcers say offside or offsides during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526254	Yes	BUY	15	89¢	$13	0xe2b37f…
06-30 19:04:34	will the announcers say corner 10 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526248	Yes	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0x0fc322…
06-30 18:58:26	will the announcers say penalty shootout during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343718	Yes	BUY	25	85¢	$21	0xed0c75…
06-30 17:51:20	will trump say six seven in july 20260629200910972	Yes	BUY	1	50¢	$1	0xca55a6…
06-30 13:34:26	will the announcers say assist during the south africa vs canada fifa world cup match 20260626193058852	Yes	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0x042227…
06-30 09:17:14	will trump say visa in july 20260629200910958	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x3c07fa…
06-29 21:03:37	will trump say pathetic in july 20260629200910952	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x0ad027…
06-29 21:03:20	will trump say muscle in july 20260629200910951	Yes	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x80f685…
06-29 21:03:17	will trump say muscle in july 20260629200910951	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x153fe8…
06-29 21:02:29	will trump say uranium in july 20260629200910954	Yes	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x88e86e…
06-29 21:02:25	will trump say uranium in july 20260629200910954	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x1ea333…
06-29 21:01:53	will trump say visa in july 20260629200910958	Yes	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x09202e…
06-29 21:01:49	will trump say visa in july 20260629200910958	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x5678a0…
06-29 20:58:10	will trump say six seven in july 20260629200910972	Yes	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xfc3fb5…
06-29 20:58:05	will trump say six seven in july 20260629200910972	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x926b25…
06-29 20:47:37	will the announcers say assist during the uruguay vs spain fifa world cup match 20260625155523355	Yes	SELL	6	49¢	$3	0xe7054f…
06-29 20:33:17	will the announcers say brazil during the germany vs paraguay fifa world cup match 20260629141841616	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x54f89b…
06-28 19:02:22	will the announcers say equalize or equalizer during the south africa vs canada fifa world cup match 20260626193058850	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x90ac75…
06-28 19:01:43	will the announcers say sub or substitution 10 times during the south africa vs canada fifa world cup match 20260626193058839	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x8cd1e6…
06-28 19:00:46	will the announcers say assist during the south africa vs canada fifa world cup match 20260626193058852	Yes	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0x140d9f…
06-28 02:34:58	fifwc jor arg 2026 06 27 goals lionel messi gte2	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0xdb2c28…
06-28 02:34:40	fifwc jor arg 2026 06 27 goals lionel messi gte2	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x716e74…
06-27 01:07:47	will scott mctominay score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0x4addad…
06-26 19:42:47	will the announcers say handball during the norway vs france fifa world cup match 20260625155250623	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xcd4ef1…
06-26 19:41:41	will the announcers say handball during the norway vs france fifa world cup match 20260625155250623	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x79b7b7…
06-26 18:09:25	will the announcers say assist during the uruguay vs spain fifa world cup match 20260625155523355	Yes	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x74a17a…
06-26 12:24:20	will the announcers say captain during the norway vs france fifa world cup match 20260625155250625	Yes	BUY	40	84¢	$34	0x2dc2b4…
06-26 12:22:44	will the announcers say assist during the norway vs france fifa world cup match 20260625155250628	Yes	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x06ac37…
06-25 08:06:49	will darden restaurants say litigation during earnings call 20260624141322364	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xefdad5…
06-25 08:04:23	will darden restaurants say dining during earnings call 20260624141322362	Yes	BUY	48	98¢	$47	0xc34add…
06-25 08:03:14	will darden restaurants say fiscal during earnings call 20260624141322360	Yes	BUY	48	98¢	$47	0x9cabd1…
06-24 15:12:25	will the iphone 18 pro cost at least 1300 20260623232159231	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x97f513…
06-24 10:28:01	will the announcers say assist during the japan vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260623181809453	Yes	BUY	40	71¢	$28	0xf4989a…
06-24 10:27:35	will the announcers say header during the japan vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260623181809444	Yes	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x9587b7…
06-24 10:27:19	will the announcers say header during the japan vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260623181809444	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xd66295…
06-24 10:23:20	will the iphone 18 pro cost at least 1300 20260623232159231	No	BUY	60	89¢	$53	0x9d614a…
06-24 10:23:13	will the iphone 18 pro cost at least 1300 20260623232159231	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xf30a30…
06-23 14:28:17	Will Kylian Mbappé win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	21	20¢	$4	0xc76cac…
06-23 06:50:01	will the announcers say record during the portugal vs uzbekistan fifa world cup match 20260622180548673	Yes	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xca61dc…
06-23 06:49:26	will the announcers say assist during the portugal vs uzbekistan fifa world cup match 20260622180548678	Yes	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x5de6a5…
06-23 06:49:04	will the announcers say captain during the portugal vs uzbekistan fifa world cup match 20260622180548674	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xd3b56c…
06-22 21:05:28	will the announcers say header during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900198	Yes	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x8d5632…
06-22 20:50:02	will the announcers say header during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900198	Yes	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0xf86dc7…
06-22 20:40:40	will the announcers say assist during the norway vs senegal fifa world cup match 20260619210023969	Yes	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0xbbfc2d…
06-22 20:40:13	will the announcers say captain during the norway vs senegal fifa world cup match 20260619210023965	Yes	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0xbeb940…
06-22 20:36:17	will the announcers say messi during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900216	Yes	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x7e60c2…
06-22 19:03:53	will the announcers say captain during the france vs iraq fifa world cup match 20260619205900203	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x071204…