Rosy-Father-Incentive — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.82K

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

58.9%

Resolved

180

Trades

386

lifetime

Volume

$41.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$107

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-09

last 10-18 21:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Other

50% 54% -$1,504

Politics

40% 50% -$2,244

Crypto

8% 90% -$56

Sports

1% 0% -$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No		+0	$0	96¢	$0	$0	10-12 21:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	58	$10.1K	34,175	34,175	+0	No	-$1,979	09-21 07:46
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28?	2	$3.8K	1,988	1,988	+0	Up	+$118	05-28 17:54
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	6	$3.3K	2,193	2,193	+0	T1	+$191	05-28 12:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$2.5K	1,516	1,516	+0	No	+$258	05-28 09:48
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs	2	$2.5K	2,198	2,198	+0	magic	-$1,287	05-28 20:09
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	6	$2.5K	1,300	1,300	+0	Nongshim Red Force	+$142	05-28 10:31
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs	2	$1.6K	858	858	+0	Virtus.pro	+$121	05-28 14:55
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?	3	$1.1K	593	593	+0	Yes	+$122	05-24 21:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$1.0K	1,124	0	+1,124	No	+$97	05-25 18:14
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs	2	$923	474	474	+0	Team Falcons	+$23	05-23 09:14
cs2 shim mibrf 2026 06 26	7	$916	2,303	12	+2,291	MIBR fe	-$909	06-26 18:15
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$775	396	396	+0	Yes	+$15	05-20 22:31
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	4	$762	452	452	+0	Yes	-$114	10-13 11:02
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20?	2	$730	383	383	+0	Up	+$34	05-20 16:10
cs2 masq adn 2026 06 26	2	$645	526	526	+0	Alpha Dominion Nation	+$405	06-26 15:20
Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	31	$595	34,986	0	+34,986	No	-$595	09-20 11:27
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	2	$491	249	249	+0	No	+$7	05-16 23:03
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	10	$482	320	320	+0	No	+$11	05-16 22:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$396	421	0	+421	No	+$24	05-20 22:51
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	2	$335	198	198	+0	Yes	-$14	07-07 07:26
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	5	$262	152	152	-0	No	+$38	05-15 07:07
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	1	$249	278	0	+278	No	+$29	05-16 23:35
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$227	2,063	2,063	+0	Yes	-$53	06-15 16:18
bitcoin above 62k on july 6 2026	2	$220	116	116	+0	Yes	+$11	07-06 16:19
cs2 inf1 lph 2026 06 26	1	$210	500	0	+500	INFURITY Gaming	-$210	06-26 07:48
Will Spirit Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?	8	$196	548	0	+548	Yes	+$352	09-06 14:18
Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government?	4	$168	93	93	+0	No	$0	05-11 22:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	2	$148	77	77	+0	Down	+$4	07-03 10:59
cs2 pre mil 2026 06 26	1	$145	724	0	+724	Prestige	-$145	06-26 12:08
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-03 10:45 UTC	2	$142	74	74	+0	Down	+$2	07-03 10:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-18 21:37:45	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 18?	No	SELL	47	1¢	$1	0x870fc5…
10-18 19:08:53	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 18?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0xa7520c…
10-18 19:08:26	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 18?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2a0ab5…
10-18 07:40:32	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on October 18?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x77acaf…
10-17 16:46:44	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on October 17?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x4212c1…
10-17 08:03:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 17?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x8aef0a…
10-16 20:19:47	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on October 16?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xfb52b6…
10-15 18:20:44	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on October 16?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xc88195…
10-13 17:44:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 17:40 UTC	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa73938…
10-13 17:39:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 17:35 UTC	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x46b2cb…
10-13 17:34:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5f9a24…
10-13 17:29:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 17:25 UTC	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7aca5a…
10-13 17:17:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x93f03d…
10-13 17:01:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x05a89c…
10-13 16:48:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x2eb489…
10-13 16:43:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 16:40 UTC	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe981e9…
10-13 16:38:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 16:35 UTC	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x6b52e1…
10-13 16:33:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 16:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x527a61…
10-13 16:28:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 16:25 UTC	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xba05d1…
10-13 16:17:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 16:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x10d426…
10-13 16:14:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x6899b5…
10-13 16:02:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x54f5aa…
10-13 15:59:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 15:55 UTC	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbe8a67…
10-13 15:53:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfa1a93…
10-13 15:47:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2ec191…
10-13 11:02:23	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	SELL	452	72¢	$324	0x5b0564…
10-12 22:06:42	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	93	98¢	$92	0x49fe6e…
10-12 22:06:00	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	259	97¢	$251	0x7b544e…
10-12 22:05:33	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x016fc9…
10-12 21:59:15	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	SELL	22	90¢	$19	0xc421d5…
10-08 07:35:25	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0xc71186…
09-25 18:08:00	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	201	3¢	$7	0xf197de…
09-25 11:41:36	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	10¢	$11	0xe27ffc…
09-25 11:41:11	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	9¢	$8	0x9c11bf…
09-21 08:35:45	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	SELL	64	12¢	$7	0x3072ac…
09-21 07:50:42	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	64	28¢	$18	0xb6fedd…
09-21 07:46:05	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	8,931	0¢	$18	0x9613f2…
09-20 13:37:12	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	381	11¢	$42	0x759bd8…
09-20 13:36:57	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	11¢	$114	0x7d68a5…
09-20 13:36:54	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	11¢	$114	0x6206d1…
09-20 13:36:51	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	11¢	$114	0x058fd0…
09-20 13:36:46	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	11¢	$114	0xae5e8b…
09-20 13:36:42	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$23	0xef8fbd…
09-20 13:36:39	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$23	0x182325…
09-20 13:36:30	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,200	11¢	$137	0x46f6cd…
09-20 13:36:25	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	340	11¢	$38	0xc813d4…
09-20 13:36:25	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	364	11¢	$41	0xae33fc…
09-20 13:36:25	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	796	11¢	$90	0xa95391…
09-20 13:36:21	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,450	11¢	$165	0xa95e53…
09-20 13:09:46	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	5,336	9¢	$468	0xbb7803…
09-20 11:27:55	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	180	2¢	$3	0x5ea487…
09-20 11:12:36	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	1,700	1¢	$25	0x98931e…
09-20 11:12:22	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	165	17¢	$29	0xd2dcf8…
09-20 11:10:42	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	400	1¢	$6	0x79c858…
09-20 11:00:06	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	359	2¢	$5	0x7200ac…
09-20 11:00:00	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	698	1¢	$10	0x78a554…
09-19 20:49:05	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	464	18¢	$86	0x738548…
09-19 20:48:42	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,048	18¢	$191	0x8b4906…
09-19 20:48:39	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	8	18¢	$1	0x54ff47…
09-19 20:48:35	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x4100d9…
09-19 20:48:29	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,130	19¢	$211	0x11b291…
09-19 20:48:24	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2,250	18¢	$410	0xc955e3…
09-19 20:48:18	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x40ab9f…
09-19 20:48:15	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x813b8b…
09-19 20:48:12	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x55f60e…
09-19 20:48:08	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	200	19¢	$37	0xdce522…
09-19 20:19:33	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	4,205	16¢	$677	0x9f9c4b…
09-19 12:58:08	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	808	2¢	$15	0x569a5e…
09-19 12:57:45	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	4,245	2¢	$76	0x7324f9…
09-19 12:57:29	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$16	0x60f595…
09-19 12:57:23	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	314	2¢	$5	0xb9cafc…
09-19 12:57:17	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	172	1¢	$2	0xbf4ecc…
09-19 12:57:11	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	133	1¢	$2	0xdbe8cc…
09-19 12:56:51	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	467	23¢	$107	0x5a6d41…
09-19 07:40:33	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	909	2¢	$20	0xca0748…
09-19 07:40:28	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	458	2¢	$10	0x520db6…
09-19 07:40:24	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	529	2¢	$11	0x372640…
09-19 07:40:18	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	559	2¢	$11	0x740921…
09-19 07:40:03	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	236	2¢	$4	0x1de660…
09-19 07:39:30	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	298	20¢	$60	0xd7447e…
09-19 07:34:10	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	11,435	2¢	$205	0xab5d9f…
09-19 07:33:55	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,018	21¢	$209	0x1a7526…
09-17 17:12:42	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	270	2¢	$6	0xf4ba81…
09-17 17:11:34	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	365	2¢	$7	0xec1b78…
09-17 17:11:15	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	730	2¢	$15	0xd97f70…
09-17 17:10:52	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	319	2¢	$6	0xebdef3…
09-15 18:47:52	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	1,690	1¢	$20	0xd925f7…
09-15 18:45:00	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	1,311	1¢	$16	0xdbc0f4…
09-14 20:48:09	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	266	2¢	$6	0x56ea24…
09-14 20:47:36	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	114	2¢	$2	0x255c8c…
09-14 20:46:33	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	958	2¢	$22	0x8e286a…
09-14 20:46:10	Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	245	5¢	$11	0xde2407…
09-14 20:45:49	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	577	2¢	$12	0x73ee51…
09-14 20:45:39	Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	302	2¢	$6	0x41ab80…
09-12 18:05:51	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	13	17¢	$2	0x13e802…
09-12 18:04:58	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0x10edb1…
09-12 18:04:43	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	61	18¢	$11	0x6b5e67…
09-12 18:04:34	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xadc530…
09-12 18:04:15	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0x56f5b8…
09-12 18:04:06	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	19	17¢	$3	0x8f8102…