Shallow-Provision — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.3%

Resolved

Trades

375

lifetime

Volume

$29.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$77

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-05

last 07-07 15:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

51% 100% +$29

Tech

33% — —

Politics

9% 0% $-11

Crypto

5% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	24	$2.3K	2,410	2,410	+0	open	—	06-27 16:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	50	$2.2K	1,500	1,414	+86	open	—	06-13 17:25
fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 goals erling haaland gte1	5	$2.1K	1,231	1,116	+115	open	—	06-26 20:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	17	$2.0K	1,071	1,071	+0	open	—	05-12 12:24
will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	7	$1.9K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	06-30 17:56
another gta vi trailer released by june 30	65	$1.8K	1,863	630	+1,233	open	—	06-26 13:59
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	3	$1.6K	6,130	6,130	+0	open	—	06-18 16:51
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	15	$1.5K	2,186	2,186	+0	open	—	06-25 11:06
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	5	$1.2K	719	719	+0	open	—	06-21 15:08
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10 879 888 944	3	$1.0K	600	600	+0	open	—	07-01 19:10
will fidesz kdnp win at least 60 seats	11	$904	1,078	0	+1,078	open	—	04-12 08:59
will fidesz kdnp win at least 70 seats	5	$826	1,243	0	+1,243	open	—	04-10 07:02
another gta vi trailer released by june 15	7	$819	1,124	0	+1,124	open	—	06-07 21:26
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	8	$800	1,150	400	+750	open	—	05-31 18:14
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	3	$710	675	675	+0	open	—	06-01 12:11
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?	3	$692	400	400	+0	open	—	04-29 06:10
will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	2	$586	404	404	+0	open	—	06-06 13:30
another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	8	$500	500	500	+0	open	—	06-30 20:53
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	4	$488	665	665	+0	open	—	06-18 17:35
gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	15	$486	609	609	+0	open	—	07-07 15:10
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	2	$452	500	0	+500	open	—	04-07 21:18
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	3	$450	300	300	+0	open	—	05-28 13:17
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$417	300	300	+0	open	—	04-07 21:00
gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	24	$400	554	554	+0	open	—	06-25 22:39
Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit?	5	$380	207	207	+0	Yes	+$29	05-13 07:33
will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762 968	5	$348	400	0	+400	open	—	06-09 14:24
russia military action against kyiv municipality by april 17	14	$296	643	343	+300	open	—	04-15 23:38
will adam sandler attend ufc freedom 250 20260602162901352	9	$278	613	491	+122	open	—	06-09 08:23
will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	2	$266	300	300	+0	open	—	06-15 15:53
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	2	$251	202	202	+0	open	—	07-07 06:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-07 15:10:19	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	300	12¢	$36	0xdd1323…
07-07 15:10:19	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	58	12¢	$7	0x06dcb2…
07-07 15:08:05	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	29	12¢	$3	0xb71dae…
07-07 15:08:05	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	23	12¢	$3	0x8fedf2…
07-07 14:44:53	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0x22e05f…
07-07 13:50:16	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	24	14¢	$3	0xd19bbd…
07-07 13:38:08	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	16	14¢	$2	0x4a56b2…
07-07 13:38:01	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0x857054…
07-07 13:37:47	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	100	14¢	$14	0x6d848d…
07-07 13:37:01	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	35	14¢	$5	0xd09ecc…
07-07 13:36:41	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0x781f69…
07-07 13:36:40	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	SELL	3	14¢	$0	0x57e04b…
07-07 06:15:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	202	75¢	$151	0xe713df…
07-06 21:08:28	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	202	50¢	$100	0x7182d6…
07-02 12:30:59	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	Yes	SELL	635	3¢	$22	0x6bdb22…
07-02 12:15:13	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	Yes	SELL	181	3¢	$6	0xe8534d…
07-02 10:12:31	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	816	4¢	$30	0x2474c2…
07-01 19:48:43	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	Yes	BUY	588	68¢	$400	0xe94975…
07-01 19:10:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10 879 888 944	Yes	SELL	590	99¢	$587	0xfe4046…
07-01 17:52:53	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10 879 888 944	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xda0333…
06-30 20:53:56	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	Yes	SELL	268	50¢	$134	0x1585f9…
06-30 20:51:47	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	Yes	BUY	17	46¢	$8	0xae58c1…
06-30 19:27:08	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	Yes	SELL	26	50¢	$13	0x7df419…
06-30 19:22:16	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	Yes	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0xc76115…
06-30 19:20:20	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x7b85b8…
06-30 19:03:41	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xe64bd5…
06-30 17:56:23	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	SELL	416	100¢	$415	0x8679dc…
06-30 17:53:01	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xdc1bde…
06-30 17:50:43	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	SELL	754	100¢	$753	0xd74af2…
06-30 17:25:17	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	400	70¢	$280	0x6d2263…
06-30 16:47:56	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	Yes	SELL	50	50¢	$25	0x8dd87c…
06-30 16:38:10	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x175d48…
06-30 16:36:19	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	Yes	SELL	34	50¢	$17	0x03c1dd…
06-30 15:08:17	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	Yes	BUY	500	50¢	$250	0x6af990…
06-30 12:17:05	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	490	60¢	$294	0x3aa848…
06-30 12:16:40	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x5be0d6…
06-30 08:18:29	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	300	40¢	$120	0x681667…
06-27 16:44:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10	Yes	BUY	600	68¢	$408	0xeb8ae4…
06-27 16:30:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	309	34¢	$105	0x27d15f…
06-27 14:53:44	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	309	30¢	$93	0xbf6540…
06-26 20:10:10	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 goals erling haaland gte1	No	BUY	115	85¢	$98	0x42a6a9…
06-26 19:51:58	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 goals erling haaland gte1	No	SELL	650	89¢	$579	0x95b024…
06-26 19:48:07	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 goals erling haaland gte1	No	SELL	466	89¢	$415	0x81d174…
06-26 18:42:26	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 goals erling haaland gte1	No	BUY	1,111	90¢	$1,000	0xd175f6…
06-26 18:42:13	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 goals erling haaland gte1	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x99e202…
06-26 13:59:28	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	60	75¢	$45	0xf275b1…
06-26 12:56:29	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	42	75¢	$32	0xfd6d52…
06-26 12:56:08	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	198	75¢	$148	0xa5fd71…
06-26 04:17:22	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	332	85¢	$282	0xbd40e6…
06-26 00:28:01	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0x395309…
06-25 23:57:11	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	237	85¢	$202	0x5752c1…
06-25 23:19:59	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	10	85¢	$9	0x822d61…
06-25 23:19:41	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	11	85¢	$10	0xa3918b…
06-25 22:39:05	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	9	36¢	$3	0x74cd95…
06-25 22:38:47	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	13	36¢	$5	0x555b78…
06-25 22:36:11	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	15	36¢	$5	0x3cd180…
06-25 22:35:29	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xdf6f46…
06-25 22:34:55	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	15	36¢	$5	0x2efe85…
06-25 22:31:55	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	19	36¢	$7	0xdff5fb…
06-25 22:29:46	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	3	36¢	$1	0x8a3bbf…
06-25 22:22:26	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xbbb016…
06-25 22:22:17	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	90	36¢	$32	0x5012ef…
06-25 22:12:56	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	29	36¢	$10	0x3f91e1…
06-25 22:10:26	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	39	36¢	$14	0x928d79…
06-25 21:33:23	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	39	36¢	$14	0xceaeec…
06-25 21:28:49	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	51	36¢	$18	0x01ec4d…
06-25 21:14:40	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0xa2a5d7…
06-25 21:14:28	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	16	36¢	$6	0xf8bb4b…
06-25 21:14:19	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	21	36¢	$8	0x6a1756…
06-25 21:13:40	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	25	36¢	$9	0x27802a…
06-25 21:13:29	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	32	36¢	$11	0x76e199…
06-25 21:13:19	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x692f41…
06-25 21:13:17	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	24	36¢	$9	0x96147a…
06-25 21:09:40	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	28	36¢	$10	0xfaddac…
06-25 21:05:38	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x77dc9c…
06-25 20:57:17	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	SELL	16	36¢	$6	0x4a2d9c…
06-25 20:47:32	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	No	BUY	554	36¢	$200	0x4bc236…
06-25 18:34:02	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	57	80¢	$45	0xc6a690…
06-25 17:22:40	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	45	80¢	$36	0x27ce88…
06-25 16:52:19	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x8ac665…
06-25 16:02:26	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0x1ec36f…
06-25 14:58:58	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	93	80¢	$75	0x4f5755…
06-25 14:45:05	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	23	80¢	$18	0xd45376…
06-25 14:21:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	666	50¢	$333	0x2b59e5…
06-25 13:48:19	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	25	52¢	$13	0xbcfb73…
06-25 13:42:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x4b6d0a…
06-25 13:35:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	362	52¢	$188	0x368c90…
06-25 13:33:17	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	Yes	SELL	257	34¢	$88	0x853db4…
06-25 13:28:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	Yes	SELL	11	36¢	$4	0xa10079…
06-25 12:05:35	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	240	60¢	$144	0xb9c71e…
06-25 12:05:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	71	60¢	$43	0x27af3d…
06-25 11:46:29	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	76	67¢	$51	0x92cdac…
06-25 11:06:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	366	45¢	$165	0x35e16b…
06-25 10:58:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	953	50¢	$477	0xd7b253…
06-25 09:02:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	320	31¢	$100	0xa6c62e…
06-25 09:01:23	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	Yes	BUY	268	56¢	$150	0x8ad173…
06-25 08:45:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	0	60¢	$0	0x69e805…
06-25 08:39:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	62	60¢	$38	0x68505a…
06-25 08:39:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	635	33¢	$210	0xa6d2bc…
06-25 08:38:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	365	33¢	$120	0x162700…