Natural-Restriction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$374

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

88.5%

Resolved

Trades

843

lifetime

Volume

$14.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-17

last 07-26 13:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

51% 67% +$374

Other

30% — —

Crypto

17% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by march 20	18	$1.5K	3,007	2,485	+522	open	—	03-20 15:14
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	7	$935	3,104	1,800	+1,304	open	—	04-07 22:57
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	2	$720	700	700	+0	open	—	06-15 00:18
starmer out by june 22 2026	4	$622	699	699	+0	open	—	06-21 09:34
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	29	$541	796	796	+0	open	—	03-25 16:02
will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	6	$520	1,046	1,046	+0	open	—	06-30 10:58
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	3	$509	600	600	+0	Yes	+$401	05-09 07:32
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	10	$462	1,887	1,887	+0	open	—	06-18 12:52
will israel take military action in gaza on march 26 2026	41	$402	2,813	2,883	-70	open	—	03-27 19:43
btc updown 5m 1773935400	2	$386	200	200	+0	open	—	03-19 15:53
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	7	$338	1,004	1,004	+0	open	—	05-28 05:21
iran closes its airspace by june 8	4	$305	2,500	500	+2,000	open	—	06-07 23:00
btc updown 5m 1773948000	1	$300	30,000	0	+30,000	open	—	03-19 19:25
will gold gc hit low 3600 by end of march	32	$292	9,505	9,504	+0	open	—	03-27 19:55
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	18	$248	27,578	25,549	+2,029	open	—	04-05 03:29
btc updown 5m 1773947400	2	$204	106	106	+0	open	—	03-19 19:11
btc updown 5m 1773936000	1	$200	206	0	+206	open	—	03-19 16:04
Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$179	3,100	3,088	+12	open	—	06-16 00:51
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	7	$166	5,408	0	+5,408	open	—	06-02 12:57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	2	$152	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	05-07 20:42
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	13	$138	34,260	0	+34,260	open	—	03-24 18:04
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	9	$137	12,144	0	+12,144	open	—	06-05 18:06
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	28	$136	3,600	0	+3,600	open	—	04-02 00:58
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	6	$134	1,801	1,801	+0	open	—	05-30 17:18
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	10	$123	3,700	3,100	+600	open	—	06-09 19:20
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	8	$122	996	0	+996	open	—	06-23 08:28
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$119	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	06-17 03:41
btc updown 5m 1773848100	10	$118	70	70	+0	open	—	03-18 15:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	87	$114	3,870	0	+3,870	open	—	04-05 22:46
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	8	$106	629	200	+429	No	+$54	05-06 10:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-26 13:09:15	will wti reach 105 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	300	3¢	$10	0xdca0f9…
07-26 12:29:58	will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	Yes	BUY	705	1¢	$8	0xd15b8a…
06-30 10:58:17	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	Yes	SELL	1,046	2¢	$26	0xb7095f…
06-28 05:14:43	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xd98e23…
06-28 04:41:46	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xadf561…
06-27 03:41:34	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 26 20260622192122519	Yes	BUY	2,400	0¢	$10	0x74acca…
06-27 01:52:23	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 26 20260622192122519	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x87422e…
06-26 23:18:53	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	554	3¢	$18	0xb5a90c…
06-26 23:12:40	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xe92d30…
06-26 21:37:02	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x203cb3…
06-26 21:37:01	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0xf5836f…
06-26 21:36:34	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x30dbd3…
06-26 21:17:01	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xe643fb…
06-26 21:14:10	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x3eed59…
06-26 21:11:28	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xca2a43…
06-26 21:10:49	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$9	0xdbce2d…
06-26 21:08:28	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x7d8d5b…
06-26 20:57:43	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x873148…
06-26 20:57:23	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,056	4¢	$46	0x3d8a89…
06-26 20:50:52	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	78	3¢	$2	0xe84da2…
06-26 20:50:11	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,240	1¢	$14	0x1bf22c…
06-26 20:50:07	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0xe8e82e…
06-26 20:48:29	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	195	4¢	$8	0x12a7b3…
06-26 20:38:52	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 26 20260622192122519	Yes	BUY	215	0¢	$1	0x6121a0…
06-26 20:33:46	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x7c2f9d…
06-25 16:45:55	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	60	6¢	$4	0xbdb8b4…
06-25 16:45:47	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x638255…
06-25 16:45:40	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	500	6¢	$30	0x973b28…
06-25 05:05:20	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0x120fb3…
06-25 03:04:58	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 26 20260622192122519	Yes	BUY	900	1¢	$5	0xed0b96…
06-24 20:25:49	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$8	0x7aee62…
06-24 07:36:25	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x1d311c…
06-24 07:14:37	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0xca2c00…
06-23 21:01:02	russia x ukraine ceasefire by june 30 2026 631	Yes	BUY	1,021	1¢	$6	0x0490ea…
06-23 19:40:11	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$1	0x2674be…
06-23 19:05:56	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	291	1¢	$2	0xc9e8cd…
06-23 15:39:37	russia x ukraine ceasefire by june 30 2026 631	Yes	BUY	479	1¢	$3	0x2c87b5…
06-23 10:37:38	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	1¢	$3	0xc502c6…
06-23 08:29:08	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	227	1¢	$3	0xd17cfe…
06-23 08:28:35	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	188	1¢	$2	0x6d0315…
06-23 08:28:20	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$15	0xe93f29…
06-22 07:43:58	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	101	12¢	$12	0xcad5c3…
06-22 07:43:58	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x8d5564…
06-22 07:43:46	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x4096e5…
06-22 07:43:37	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	47	12¢	$6	0x74eb17…
06-22 07:43:29	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	52	12¢	$6	0x5744b3…
06-22 07:43:10	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	166	12¢	$20	0x124080…
06-21 17:47:49	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	55	3¢	$2	0xfd979a…
06-21 17:43:43	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	545	3¢	$19	0x89d855…
06-21 16:39:29	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	400	4¢	$16	0x7b83d8…
06-21 13:56:29	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xe10044…
06-21 10:08:25	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	189	2¢	$4	0xe47b71…
06-21 09:59:11	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0xbd0fdc…
06-21 09:41:25	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,500	2¢	$30	0x16ecff…
06-21 09:39:49	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	330	2¢	$6	0xb5a569…
06-21 09:34:26	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	699	76¢	$528	0x75218e…
06-20 13:41:41	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,607	1¢	$11	0x1468d4…
06-20 13:39:56	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	Yes	BUY	2,037	2¢	$39	0xfc37fc…
06-20 13:38:35	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	Yes	BUY	160	2¢	$3	0x8cf591…
06-20 13:38:26	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xb3908e…
06-20 13:38:19	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x6bc9e6…
06-20 13:38:07	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xae9cf5…
06-20 13:37:58	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	Yes	BUY	81	1¢	$1	0x892889…
06-20 11:28:46	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	49	10¢	$5	0xcc4e85…
06-20 11:20:11	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	250	10¢	$25	0x19eab6…
06-20 10:51:32	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	400	16¢	$64	0xcef8a0…
06-19 20:47:13	israeli forces enter beirut by june 30	Yes	BUY	16	2¢	$0	0x13809a…
06-19 18:20:43	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	400	15¢	$60	0x6361e1…
06-19 13:34:43	israeli forces enter beirut by june 30	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x9db462…
06-19 13:02:16	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	400	4¢	$17	0x1da77c…
06-19 13:01:49	netanyahu out by july 31	Yes	BUY	700	4¢	$28	0x21bf53…
06-19 13:01:10	netanyahu out by july 31	Yes	BUY	106	4¢	$4	0xb30dd8…
06-19 13:01:04	netanyahu out by july 31	Yes	BUY	96	4¢	$4	0x926cd1…
06-19 13:00:44	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3,912	1¢	$35	0x1cec6c…
06-19 13:00:31	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	431	1¢	$3	0x4c13cc…
06-19 12:26:37	cuba leader miguel diaz canel in us custody by june 30	Yes	BUY	163	2¢	$4	0xbd91da…
06-19 11:40:56	cuba leader miguel diaz canel in us custody by june 30	Yes	BUY	32	2¢	$1	0x93edd4…
06-19 11:29:23	cuba leader miguel diaz canel in us custody by june 30	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x6df213…
06-19 11:28:10	cuba leader miguel diaz canel in us custody by june 30	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$11	0x8485b8…
06-19 11:26:59	Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$1	0xe43659…
06-19 11:26:40	Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	105	1¢	$1	0x168132…
06-19 06:12:58	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0xb31607…
06-19 06:11:29	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	58	7¢	$4	0xcd22f3…
06-19 06:10:50	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x1eeffe…
06-19 06:10:11	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	22	7¢	$2	0xbe0a7b…
06-18 12:52:43	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	1,887	13¢	$246	0xe16996…
06-18 11:56:41	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0x27c573…
06-18 11:10:19	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	66	10¢	$7	0x1a260f…
06-18 11:10:02	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	115	10¢	$12	0x7f6252…
06-18 11:09:02	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	19	10¢	$2	0x2fd3dc…
06-18 11:01:43	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	600	11¢	$66	0x70b336…
06-18 11:00:29	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	397	12¢	$48	0x725334…
06-18 10:55:55	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	182	14¢	$26	0xe55fcb…
06-17 16:47:10	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	Yes	BUY	347	47¢	$163	0xd0360b…
06-17 16:46:56	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	Yes	BUY	500	48¢	$240	0xe2a1e2…
06-17 16:46:43	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	Yes	BUY	90	47¢	$43	0xc63f20…
06-17 16:46:41	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	Yes	BUY	60	45¢	$27	0x13702c…
06-17 16:46:37	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	Yes	BUY	48	45¢	$22	0x463012…
06-17 11:52:43	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x1cb526…
06-17 11:47:19	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	600	16¢	$93	0x81108b…