Rare-Survival — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$120

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.9%

Resolved

323

Trades

918

lifetime

Volume

$5.88K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 10-23 20:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 41% -$66

Other

1% 0% -$54

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 142 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	8	$299	235	235	+0	Up	-$1	10-18 18:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	5	$194	150	108	+42	Up	-$6	10-18 18:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 21:10 UTC	4	$170	143	143	+0	Up	+$50	10-17 21:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 21:00 UTC	6	$142	109	109	+0	Up	+$32	10-17 21:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	4	$140	135	135	+0	Down	+$40	10-18 19:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	5	$130	118	87	+31	Down	+$20	10-18 19:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	6	$128	112	112	+0	Down	+$18	10-18 19:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	4	$126	93	93	+0	Down	+$26	10-17 21:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	7	$108	227	120	+107	Down	+$4	10-18 19:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	7	$95	160	160	+0	Down	+$15	10-19 06:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 21:30 UTC	3	$86	183	58	+125	Down	+$16	10-17 21:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 21:25 UTC	3	$84	321	36	+286	Down	-$16	10-17 21:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 20:35 UTC	5	$81	68	60	+8	Down	+$17	10-17 20:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	3	$80	86	31	+54	Up	-$20	10-18 19:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 21:35 UTC	3	$77	166	83	+83	Down	+$27	10-17 21:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	10	$74	127	101	+26	Down	+$14	10-19 06:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	4	$73	70	70	+0	Down	+$13	10-17 20:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	5	$72	103	89	+14	Down	+$2	10-19 06:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	5	$66	122	86	+36	Down	-$4	10-19 08:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 20:55 UTC	2	$64	34	34	+0	Down	+$4	10-17 21:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	6	$58	99	74	+25	Up	+$6	10-19 09:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 19:30 UTC	7	$55	70	66	+4	Up	+$24	04-20 19:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	6	$52	54	54	+0	Down	+$22	10-19 06:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	3	$51	52	27	+25	Down	-$1	05-12 12:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	7	$51	85	57	+29	Up	+$7	10-19 07:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	3	$47	28	28	+0	Down	+$7	10-18 17:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	5	$46	57	57	+0	Down	+$16	10-18 10:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	7	$46	77	77	+0	Down	+$12	10-18 20:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 20:40 UTC	3	$45	58	45	+13	Up	+$5	10-17 20:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	6	$45	93	55	+39	Up	+$7	10-18 10:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 20:33:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xd38271…
10-23 20:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	SELL	3	41¢	$1	0x04e1a3…
10-23 20:30:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x84e929…
10-23 20:27:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x8eb72c…
10-23 20:27:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0x1c8b42…
10-23 20:25:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x7add4a…
10-23 20:22:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x202d65…
10-23 20:22:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	68¢	$2	0x412e4d…
10-23 20:22:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x91b7d2…
10-23 20:21:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0xcc1b22…
10-23 20:21:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x47c9ad…
10-23 20:21:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0x07674a…
10-23 20:20:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x757c8e…
10-23 20:15:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x8c52a6…
10-23 20:12:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x1136a9…
10-23 20:12:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	26	41¢	$11	0xf52f4e…
10-23 20:11:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x1f57fe…
10-23 20:08:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x9236bb…
10-23 20:08:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x4f8097…
10-23 20:07:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	SELL	8	40¢	$3	0x3279e2…
10-23 20:07:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x3f94bd…
10-23 20:06:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	SELL	6	63¢	$4	0x1f3088…
10-23 20:05:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xe04d6c…
10-23 20:03:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xb91e13…
10-23 20:03:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x4c3edf…
10-23 20:02:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	7	37¢	$3	0x9c6bf6…
10-23 20:02:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x194bea…
10-23 20:01:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0x5fac0f…
10-23 20:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x228a57…
10-23 20:00:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	6	57¢	$3	0x8fdda2…
10-23 20:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xd6a0ea…
10-23 19:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x2805f8…
10-23 19:52:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	SELL	17	29¢	$5	0x64ac5e…
10-23 19:52:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x27a6c7…
10-23 19:51:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x5574a7…
10-23 19:51:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0x266dd1…
10-23 19:50:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xc4e276…
10-23 19:49:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xcb4bc3…
10-23 19:48:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0x854f34…
10-23 19:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x0f7d1d…
10-23 19:48:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x28ff9c…
10-23 19:47:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x630a17…
10-23 19:46:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	6	39¢	$3	0xbb8201…
10-23 19:45:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x680be5…
10-23 19:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xc38b3a…
10-23 19:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	SELL	6	46¢	$3	0x2bf4da…
10-23 19:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xb1b8a7…
10-23 19:43:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	SELL	6	49¢	$3	0xababa2…
10-23 19:42:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xe28437…
10-23 19:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	6	59¢	$4	0x26f0c9…
10-23 19:40:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xb86720…
10-23 19:37:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xecd004…
10-23 19:36:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x78d8bf…
10-23 19:31:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x2cab5a…
10-23 19:30:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xf5cb81…
10-23 19:28:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xfe29d6…
10-23 19:27:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	SELL	7	44¢	$3	0xd05276…
10-23 19:27:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x198ac6…
10-23 19:26:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	6	72¢	$4	0x09c25c…
10-23 19:26:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x64b462…
10-23 19:24:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x53972f…
10-23 19:24:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	SELL	25	34¢	$8	0x15704c…
10-23 19:23:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xb6526f…
10-23 19:23:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xdca55c…
10-23 19:22:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	71¢	$3	0x50e5c8…
10-23 19:20:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x703139…
10-19 15:48:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x49f430…
10-19 15:46:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x4b72f9…
10-19 15:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$3	0x7d23a9…
10-19 15:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x79ee12…
10-19 15:44:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x474965…
10-19 15:43:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xd814da…
10-19 15:43:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x233374…
10-19 15:43:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0x177bfe…
10-19 15:42:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x321095…
10-19 15:42:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xb31912…
10-19 15:41:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	50¢	$3	0x3c10a3…
10-19 15:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x0fda6e…
10-19 09:20:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x68fbfd…
10-19 09:18:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	SELL	86	5¢	$4	0x414f7a…
10-19 09:18:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x0a8d48…
10-19 09:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xec9afc…
10-19 09:16:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	SELL	13	56¢	$7	0x7cd990…
10-19 09:16:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xa2a38f…
10-19 09:13:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x999f19…
10-19 09:12:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	12	53¢	$6	0xcb5f90…
10-19 09:12:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xffbb8e…
10-19 09:11:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	22	61¢	$14	0xcca5c5…
10-19 09:10:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x4a9876…
10-19 09:08:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xff32ad…
10-19 09:07:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	SELL	28	32¢	$9	0xfbd125…
10-19 09:07:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x2a374c…
10-19 09:07:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	11	59¢	$6	0x604d42…
10-19 09:06:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xee46fe…
10-19 09:04:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x5ffd64…
10-19 09:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	SELL	33	64¢	$21	0xe4ed12…
10-19 09:03:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x371548…
10-19 09:02:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x33e28b…
10-19 09:01:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	SELL	42	27¢	$11	0x363ee1…
10-19 09:00:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x8c1664…