Rare-Survival — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$41

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

22.3%

Resolved

Trades

469

lifetime

Volume

$1.59K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 07-10 07:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 28% $-41

Other

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1776713400	7	$55	70	66	+4	open	—	04-20 19:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	3	$51	52	27	+25	Down	$-1	05-12 12:32
btc updown 5m 1776694500	3	$31	25	17	+9	open	—	04-20 14:18
btc updown 5m 1776753600	5	$30	28	17	+10	open	—	04-21 06:45
btc updown 5m 1776695700	5	$29	24	18	+6	open	—	04-20 14:40
btc updown 5m 1776756300	8	$27	77	58	+19	open	—	04-21 07:29
btc updown 5m 1776709800	5	$25	32	31	+2	open	—	04-20 18:34
btc updown 5m 1776754500	3	$23	30	23	+6	open	—	04-21 07:00
btc updown 5m 1776712200	4	$23	27	25	+1	open	—	04-20 19:14
btc updown 5m 1776708600	3	$22	21	10	+11	open	—	04-20 18:15
btc updown 5m 1776755700	6	$21	33	21	+12	open	—	04-21 07:18
btc updown 5m 1776754800	6	$21	214	138	+77	open	—	04-21 07:03
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$21	136	136	+0	open	—	04-15 18:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	5	$19	43	22	+20	Up	$-3	05-12 12:47
btc updown 5m 1776366600	3	$19	12	12	+0	open	—	04-16 19:12
btc updown 5m 1776706800	4	$18	13	13	+0	open	—	04-20 17:45
btc updown 5m 1776695100	5	$18	115	9	+106	open	—	04-20 14:30
btc updown 5m 1776410400	2	$17	9	9	+0	open	—	04-17 07:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	4	$16	20	20	+0	open	—	05-02 18:39
btc updown 5m 1776707700	3	$16	18	12	+6	open	—	04-20 17:59
btc updown 5m 1776755100	4	$16	14	14	+1	open	—	04-21 07:09
btc updown 5m 1776711300	3	$16	16	9	+7	open	—	04-20 19:00
btc updown 5m 1776756000	4	$15	31	19	+12	open	—	04-21 07:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	3	$15	17	5	+11	Up	$-5	05-12 19:35
btc updown 5m 1776691500	2	$15	9	9	+0	open	—	04-20 13:28
btc updown 5m 1776711900	4	$14	31	11	+20	open	—	04-20 19:09
btc updown 5m 1776708900	3	$14	18	12	+5	open	—	04-20 18:19
btc updown 5m 1776707400	3	$14	20	12	+9	open	—	04-20 17:52
btc updown 5m 1776691800	2	$14	25	23	+2	open	—	04-20 13:34
btc updown 5m 1776705900	4	$14	16	8	+8	open	—	04-20 17:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-10 07:31:04	btc updown 5m 1783668600	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x078c24…
07-09 17:44:17	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 first corner	Morocco	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x99cb7c…
07-09 17:22:35	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 goals ismael saibari gte1	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xe3ff07…
07-09 17:17:41	btc updown 5m 1783617300	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x2ca8b1…
07-09 17:16:50	btc updown 5m 1783617300	Down	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x523729…
07-09 17:13:29	btc updown 5m 1783617000	Down	SELL	11	96¢	$10	0xb7b541…
07-09 17:11:04	btc updown 5m 1783617000	Down	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xe239d8…
07-09 17:08:35	btc updown 5m 1783616700	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x3d8288…
07-09 17:07:44	btc updown 5m 1783616700	Up	SELL	7	87¢	$6	0xc3a075…
07-09 17:06:25	btc updown 5m 1783616700	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x290295…
07-09 17:01:16	btc updown 5m 1783616400	Down	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x61ada6…
07-09 17:00:31	btc updown 5m 1783616400	Down	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x4203c2…
07-09 16:59:22	btc updown 5m 1783616100	Up	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0x7fff33…
07-09 16:57:41	btc updown 5m 1783616100	Up	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xf2a359…
07-09 16:54:35	btc updown 5m 1783615800	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc9cdae…
07-09 16:53:59	btc updown 5m 1783615800	Up	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0x2c578b…
07-09 16:51:29	btc updown 5m 1783615800	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x270da3…
07-09 16:48:14	btc updown 5m 1783615500	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xdfd000…
07-09 16:47:05	btc updown 5m 1783615500	Up	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x147a17…
07-09 16:44:11	btc updown 5m 1783615200	Down	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0xccca8f…
07-09 16:42:29	btc updown 5m 1783615200	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x4d27ba…
07-09 16:41:11	btc updown 5m 1783615200	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xdcf075…
07-09 16:37:08	btc updown 5m 1783614900	Down	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x25cb05…
07-09 16:29:40	btc updown 5m 1783614300	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x66ec87…
07-07 12:32:14	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Egypt	BUY	58	15¢	$9	0x05ecae…
06-04 19:31:33	btc updown 5m 1780601400	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x3f16c9…
06-04 19:30:40	btc updown 5m 1780601400	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x7e009a…
06-04 13:31:12	btc updown 5m 1780579800	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x62eee4…
06-04 13:30:30	btc updown 5m 1780579800	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x9638c4…
06-04 13:29:28	btc updown 5m 1780579500	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x0ae7d8…
06-04 13:25:46	btc updown 5m 1780579500	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xe48983…
06-04 13:25:37	btc updown 5m 1780579500	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xc0538a…
05-16 19:18:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x6e219f…
05-16 19:16:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xc7c7bd…
05-16 19:13:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xba4401…
05-16 19:11:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x1fd7b7…
05-16 19:09:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xedb51e…
05-16 19:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x7b4e59…
05-16 19:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xb8d423…
05-12 19:42:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x3b63db…
05-12 19:40:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x4cafa4…
05-12 19:39:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x45e92c…
05-12 19:39:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	34	11¢	$4	0x838216…
05-12 19:37:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x29f8fd…
05-12 19:36:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xaadf9d…
05-12 19:35:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xdb5cd6…
05-12 19:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x8257a8…
05-12 19:30:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x294a05…
05-12 19:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x43956a…
05-12 12:50:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x02df28…
05-12 12:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xa23a1e…
05-12 12:47:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x6d0a92…
05-12 12:47:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xb5199f…
05-12 12:47:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	SELL	15	9¢	$1	0xe847fa…
05-12 12:46:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x5371bd…
05-12 12:45:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xafda1f…
05-12 12:41:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x844aea…
05-12 12:36:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x985a8f…
05-12 12:32:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x04d54b…
05-12 12:31:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	SELL	27	93¢	$25	0xf88df5…
05-12 12:31:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0x0bfac6…
05-12 12:23:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	SELL	8	68¢	$5	0x9453d5…
05-12 12:21:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xdf97f7…
05-12 12:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xf8c024…
05-12 12:19:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x7c711d…
05-08 08:41:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x7fd3c5…
05-08 08:36:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x346dba…
05-08 08:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x2facca…
05-08 08:34:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	SELL	4	70¢	$2	0xf18b8f…
05-08 08:30:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x8e094e…
05-08 08:27:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xd71d8e…
05-08 08:24:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x6cb653…
05-08 08:24:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	8	35¢	$3	0xb88263…
05-08 08:22:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x12b16d…
05-08 08:21:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	6	41¢	$2	0xf3980b…
05-08 08:20:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x115ca2…
05-08 08:19:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x611a34…
05-08 08:19:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	SELL	14	21¢	$3	0xbcd3f9…
05-08 08:15:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xad9b79…
05-08 08:14:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x84beb3…
05-08 08:14:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	6	91¢	$6	0x08e2f7…
05-08 08:13:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x5c5487…
05-02 18:46:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x893a66…
05-02 18:43:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x5b009d…
05-02 18:42:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x9a7e54…
05-02 18:41:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	11	49¢	$5	0xae9d79…
05-02 18:40:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x80989e…
05-02 18:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	SELL	4	66¢	$3	0x088623…
05-02 18:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xc12a22…
05-02 18:37:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	SELL	16	38¢	$6	0xa0f96f…
05-02 18:36:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x544239…
05-02 18:32:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x645312…
05-02 18:31:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	13	43¢	$6	0xfb25c1…
05-02 18:30:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xab3723…
04-21 08:21:24	btc updown 5m 1776759600	Down	BUY	67	6¢	$4	0x64981d…
04-21 08:17:24	btc updown 5m 1776759300	Down	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xa755ab…
04-21 08:16:14	btc updown 5m 1776759300	Down	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xd5353a…
04-21 07:59:00	btc updown 5m 1776758100	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xbc2a1d…
04-21 07:40:30	btc updown 5m 1776757200	Down	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x4d6713…
04-21 07:37:10	btc updown 5m 1776756900	Down	BUY	67	6¢	$4	0x4b444d…