Noisy-Proportion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.06K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

55.1%

Resolved

25,994

Trades

45,455

lifetime

Volume

$48.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-22

last 11-05 04:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 183 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 24% -$741

Politics

10% 0% -$2,227

Other

1% 26% -$90

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 297 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	18	$3.8K	22,824	2,024	+20,800	No	-$2,186	10-26 00:10
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	12	$990	2,075	2,075	+0	Yes	-$36	10-24 02:50
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	11	$122	15,050	13,724	+1,326	No	-$6	08-27 14:20
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	3	$41	41	41	+0	Up	+$39	04-30 14:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	5	$40	37	6	+31	Up	+$2	06-14 13:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 01:10 UTC	12	$37	35	25	+10	Up	+$2	06-09 01:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 21:10 UTC	3	$35	30	17	+13	Up	+$8	06-12 21:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 00:25 UTC	11	$33	56	5	+51	Up	-$5	06-05 00:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 03:50 UTC	3	$31	24	14	+10	Up	+$2	06-18 03:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	3	$31	24	11	+13	Down	+$4	06-12 21:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	6	$30	37	35	+2	Down	+$20	06-02 15:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 20:45 UTC	1	$30	31	0	+31	Down	+$1	06-12 20:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 18:35 UTC	1	$30	33	0	+33	Up	+$3	06-17 18:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	8	$29	21	20	+0	Down	+$3	06-05 13:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 00:50 UTC	3	$28	26	5	+21	Down	+$2	06-18 00:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 01:25 UTC	4	$27	30	5	+24	Up	+$5	06-18 01:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 13:30 UTC	5	$26	21	16	+5	Down	-$4	06-16 13:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 22:50 UTC	8	$26	35	17	+18	Up	-$1	06-04 22:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	2	$25	50	0	+50	Down	+$0	06-03 01:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 01:55 UTC	25	$25	162	0	+162	Down	+$0	06-09 02:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	4	$25	28	7	+22	Up	$0	06-18 23:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 05:25 UTC	2	$25	15	15	+0	Up	+$5	07-04 05:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 21:25 UTC	9	$24	33	13	+21	Down	+$4	06-04 21:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 05:55 UTC	2	$23	13	13	+0	Down	+$3	07-04 05:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 14:25 UTC	3	$23	13	13	+0	Up	+$3	07-07 14:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 19:00 UTC	2	$22	20	20	+0	Down	+$2	06-17 19:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 00:55 UTC	7	$22	31	5	+26	Down	+$5	06-05 00:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 05:15 UTC	2	$22	12	12	+0	Down	+$2	07-04 05:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	6	$22	34	0	+34	Down	+$1	06-03 14:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 16:40 UTC	2	$22	12	12	+0	Down	+$2	06-12 16:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 04:42:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x268ad6…
11-05 04:37:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x382da9…
11-05 04:33:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x8b154d…
11-05 04:27:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x8dfc1b…
11-05 04:22:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0xf073bc…
11-05 04:21:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xf55688…
11-05 04:21:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0x88ead1…
11-05 04:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xa7d957…
11-05 04:02:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	SELL	7	10¢	$1	0xe83e6f…
11-05 04:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0xc5a71b…
11-05 04:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xac9c22…
11-05 03:58:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x1649ea…
11-05 03:53:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0xde0831…
11-05 03:53:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0x6ca8d2…
11-05 03:46:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0xfb7071…
11-05 03:46:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x3870b4…
11-05 03:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x0ae2e1…
11-05 03:42:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x33ed62…
11-05 03:42:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0xfca542…
11-05 03:42:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x4a4397…
11-05 03:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	SELL	7	23¢	$2	0x07b548…
11-05 03:36:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x76ea6f…
11-05 03:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xd44a1c…
11-05 03:28:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	7	12¢	$1	0x10e7f0…
11-05 03:27:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x480a05…
11-05 03:23:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x134dae…
11-05 03:16:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xe5d34b…
11-05 03:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0xd58a2b…
11-05 03:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0xa1e479…
11-05 03:08:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x2c4baf…
11-05 02:58:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	7	39¢	$3	0x8be39e…
11-05 02:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xc39bd4…
11-05 02:52:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0xe35708…
11-05 02:51:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x9b45b9…
11-05 02:47:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0x88f7e8…
11-05 02:47:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0xab8e92…
11-05 02:47:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x1483fa…
11-05 02:43:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	7	12¢	$1	0xcd974d…
11-05 02:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x68219e…
11-05 02:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x41fc71…
11-05 02:38:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0xdcafd0…
11-05 02:38:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xc1f363…
11-05 02:38:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x5482a5…
11-05 02:32:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	SELL	7	11¢	$1	0xc25bb2…
11-05 02:32:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x6d07c4…
11-05 02:28:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x5a685b…
11-05 02:23:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xe87c7f…
11-05 02:23:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x7bfc25…
11-05 02:23:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x7b50d5…
11-05 02:23:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0x613cf0…
11-05 02:18:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xc58dc5…
11-05 02:13:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x2f5461…
11-05 02:07:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x21837e…
11-05 02:07:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x9fbd77…
11-05 02:03:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0x8dc37f…
11-05 02:03:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0x5365fb…
11-05 01:55:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x136e5a…
11-05 01:51:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xf6cd1d…
11-05 01:51:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0xa2278f…
11-05 01:51:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x3c6dff…
11-05 01:45:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0x372df5…
11-05 01:45:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x7a7a1b…
11-05 01:45:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0xdcc92b…
11-05 01:41:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xaaf254…
11-05 01:41:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x26969e…
11-05 01:38:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	SELL	7	39¢	$3	0xb72db6…
11-05 01:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x1aa2e3…
11-05 01:31:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x222bcf…
11-05 01:23:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x4c4369…
11-05 01:16:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	SELL	7	11¢	$1	0x23760d…
11-05 01:15:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x9913a5…
11-05 01:11:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x756317…
11-05 01:11:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0x172bc4…
11-05 01:11:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0x73a363…
11-05 01:03:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x7ca6d3…
11-04 21:43:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xffb770…
11-04 21:43:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0x6b21d5…
11-04 21:43:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x40b918…
11-04 21:43:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x298c6b…
11-04 21:37:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x20c5b2…
11-04 21:37:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xbab935…
11-04 21:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xb24ed6…
11-04 21:28:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x1b3909…
11-04 15:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xf82534…
11-04 15:26:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0xec0c73…
11-04 15:25:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xa7cbb4…
11-04 15:25:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x75fd3f…
11-04 15:25:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x1e4c44…
11-04 15:18:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x987f3c…
11-04 15:17:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x90fe3d…
11-04 15:17:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0xcc5d59…
11-04 15:17:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x997322…
11-04 15:17:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x7bc94e…
11-04 15:17:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x715227…
11-04 15:17:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x6aece4…
11-04 15:13:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0xa909d0…
11-04 15:13:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x402184…
11-04 15:13:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x0b18a1…
11-04 15:05:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xc3787a…
11-04 15:01:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0x9b57e6…