Noisy-Proportion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.06K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

55.1%

Resolved

26,075

Trades

45,621

lifetime

Volume

$48.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-22

last 11-05 23:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 183 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 24% -$738

Politics

10% 0% -$2,227

Other

1% 26% -$90

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 297 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	18	$3.8K	22,824	2,024	+20,800	No	-$2,186	10-26 00:10
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	12	$990	2,075	2,075	+0	Yes	-$36	10-24 02:50
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	11	$122	15,050	13,724	+1,326	No	-$6	08-27 14:20
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	3	$41	41	41	+0	Up	+$39	04-30 14:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	5	$40	37	6	+31	Up	+$2	06-14 13:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 01:10 UTC	12	$37	35	25	+10	Up	+$2	06-09 01:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 21:10 UTC	3	$35	30	17	+13	Up	+$8	06-12 21:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 00:25 UTC	11	$33	56	5	+51	Up	-$5	06-05 00:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 03:50 UTC	3	$31	24	14	+10	Up	+$2	06-18 03:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	3	$31	24	11	+13	Down	+$4	06-12 21:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	6	$30	37	35	+2	Down	+$20	06-02 15:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 20:45 UTC	1	$30	31	0	+31	Down	+$1	06-12 20:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 18:35 UTC	1	$30	33	0	+33	Up	+$3	06-17 18:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 13:35 UTC	8	$29	21	20	+0	Down	+$3	06-05 13:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 00:50 UTC	3	$28	26	5	+21	Down	+$2	06-18 00:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 01:25 UTC	4	$27	30	5	+24	Up	+$5	06-18 01:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 13:30 UTC	5	$26	21	16	+5	Down	-$4	06-16 13:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 22:50 UTC	8	$26	35	17	+18	Up	-$1	06-04 22:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	2	$25	50	0	+50	Down	+$0	06-03 01:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 01:55 UTC	25	$25	162	0	+162	Down	+$0	06-09 02:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 23:50 UTC	4	$25	28	7	+22	Up	$0	06-18 23:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 05:25 UTC	2	$25	15	15	+0	Up	+$5	07-04 05:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 21:25 UTC	9	$24	33	13	+21	Down	+$4	06-04 21:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 05:55 UTC	2	$23	13	13	+0	Down	+$3	07-04 05:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 14:25 UTC	3	$23	13	13	+0	Up	+$3	07-07 14:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 19:00 UTC	2	$22	20	20	+0	Down	+$2	06-17 19:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 00:55 UTC	7	$22	31	5	+26	Down	+$5	06-05 00:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-04 05:15 UTC	2	$22	12	12	+0	Down	+$2	07-04 05:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	6	$22	34	0	+34	Down	+$1	06-03 14:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 16:40 UTC	2	$22	12	12	+0	Down	+$2	06-12 16:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 00:32:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	SELL	7	26¢	$2	0xab14b1…
11-06 00:32:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xf2d64e…
11-06 00:28:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x3e605a…
11-06 00:27:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x8d6088…
11-06 00:16:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	SELL	7	11¢	$1	0x2fb095…
11-06 00:16:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x7e0ce4…
11-06 00:12:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xa0ef45…
11-06 00:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	SELL	7	11¢	$1	0x42da39…
11-06 00:06:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xcc1f2c…
11-06 00:02:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xb40441…
11-06 00:02:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0xfc7025…
11-05 23:57:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xdacf10…
11-05 23:52:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0xbaa519…
11-05 23:52:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xbb2c27…
11-05 23:52:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0x4aaa9e…
11-05 23:42:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0xf10b14…
11-05 23:42:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x966153…
11-05 23:42:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x84f534…
11-05 23:27:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x108be5…
11-05 23:21:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0xf1f3ba…
11-05 23:21:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0x9a841e…
11-05 23:17:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	SELL	7	18¢	$1	0x5c67f7…
11-05 23:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x1241e7…
11-05 23:12:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	7	23¢	$2	0xc20fcc…
11-05 23:12:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x447338…
11-05 23:02:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	SELL	7	39¢	$3	0x477702…
11-05 23:01:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xa3d95b…
11-05 22:57:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0x310754…
11-05 22:57:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x2cca8b…
11-05 22:47:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0xcc91f3…
11-05 22:47:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0x8bf137…
11-05 22:42:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xf8bdca…
11-05 22:38:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xbedfde…
11-05 22:33:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xba1c1a…
11-05 22:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0xa14123…
11-05 22:27:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0xaa042e…
11-05 22:27:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x5bc926…
11-05 22:22:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x8b1a37…
11-05 22:22:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x4c9f71…
11-05 22:11:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x76e26d…
11-05 21:59:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	7	11¢	$1	0x9bcb08…
11-05 21:56:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0x3e53c8…
11-05 21:56:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x29b5ea…
11-05 21:51:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x2d2481…
11-05 21:51:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0x08dfe1…
11-05 21:43:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xf12702…
11-05 21:32:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0xda1167…
11-05 21:32:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x86b406…
11-05 21:06:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	SELL	7	12¢	$1	0x30ecb7…
11-05 21:05:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x8dba2d…
11-05 20:56:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0xa7fdcb…
11-05 20:56:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x42e993…
11-05 20:56:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x26893b…
11-05 20:52:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xf83d05…
11-05 20:48:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	7	12¢	$1	0x04f15d…
11-05 20:47:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xd28113…
11-05 20:47:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x5206e3…
11-05 20:42:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	7	18¢	$1	0xadd9f4…
11-05 20:41:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x6cb49d…
11-05 20:41:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0x388e02…
11-05 20:41:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x1fd133…
11-05 20:36:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x2f0d77…
11-05 20:17:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xf0e35b…
11-05 20:17:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0xd5947e…
11-05 20:12:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	7	10¢	$1	0xfa31a1…
11-05 20:12:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0x48e5bf…
11-05 20:12:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0x46fdcd…
11-05 20:07:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xccc57a…
11-05 20:02:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x140d0a…
11-05 20:02:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xd014d4…
11-05 20:02:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x686a29…
11-05 19:52:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	SELL	7	22¢	$2	0x68037e…
11-05 19:52:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0x3d24cf…
11-05 19:52:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0xb8d3c1…
11-05 19:47:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	7	10¢	$1	0xf72c7d…
11-05 19:46:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x9db92b…
11-05 19:41:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x693f5c…
11-05 19:41:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0xa90491…
11-05 19:41:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x5079ae…
11-05 19:32:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x664090…
11-05 19:32:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x8ec94b…
11-05 19:21:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xd12093…
11-05 19:21:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x2dd14d…
11-05 19:16:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xf58cd4…
11-05 19:07:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	SELL	7	19¢	$1	0xb7359c…
11-05 19:06:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xa230f1…
11-05 19:06:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x1eda6d…
11-05 18:47:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x271064…
11-05 18:33:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0xb74149…
11-05 18:33:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0x6f0588…
11-05 18:33:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x16a271…
11-05 18:27:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	7	25¢	$2	0x2214dc…
11-05 18:27:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x3b1d27…
11-05 18:22:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x8fd92e…
11-05 18:22:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x3a86a4…
11-05 18:16:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	SELL	7	12¢	$1	0xa0e861…
11-05 18:16:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0xc4eb7b…
11-05 18:16:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0x070ea2…
11-05 18:11:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xe545e6…
11-05 18:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	SELL	7	26¢	$2	0x742eab…