Puzzled-Overshoot — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$777

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

56.3%

Resolved

2,020

Trades

3,373

lifetime

Volume

$21.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-15

last 11-14 03:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 233 days

Categories

Other

58% 45% -$729

Sports

38% 52% -$6

Crypto

3% 50% -$41

Politics

0% 40% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predators vs. Golden Knights	Golden Knights		+17	$10	6¢	$1	-$9	11-14 05:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
cricmlc tex sea 2026 06 18	4	$405	482	154	+328	Texas Super Kings	+$133	06-19 03:21
fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 total 5pt5	4	$225	276	248	+29	Over	+$54	06-14 17:51
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	11	$145	171	171	+0	Timberwolves	-$15	05-05 04:12
Flyers vs. Hurricanes	8	$137	94	94	+0	Hurricanes	+$17	05-05 02:38
atp sil assche 2026 07 20	3	$136	107	56	+52	Luca Van Assche	+$8	07-20 17:41
nbasl mem gsw 2026 07 19	8	$132	85	85	+0	Golden State Warriors	+$5	07-20 02:50
Thunder vs. Lakers	14	$125	244	232	+12	Thunder	+$7	05-12 05:16
mlb col lad 2026 07 06	4	$122	80	80	+0	Los Angeles Dodgers	+$6	07-07 05:29
Spurs vs. Thunder	9	$117	146	146	+0	Spurs	-$3	05-19 02:54
fifwc sco mar 2026 06 19 first half total 1pt5	2	$110	331	0	+331	Under	-$110	06-19 22:35
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18?	3	$109	67	56	+11	Yes	+$1	05-18 18:55
Knicks vs. Spurs	4	$107	96	96	+0	Knicks	+$47	06-14 03:17
fifwc mex kr 2026 06 18 btts	3	$107	426	9	+417	No	-$103	06-19 02:36
Knicks vs. 76ers	12	$102	121	103	+18	Knicks	-$10	05-09 01:15
mlb cws nyy 2026 06 18	3	$92	95	95	+0	Chicago White Sox	-$28	06-19 01:19
mlb sf bos 2026 08 22	2	$91	49	49	+0	Boston Red Sox	+$6	08-23 02:24
crint zwe2 bgd2 2026 07 09	7	$91	64	64	+0	Zimbabwe	+$5	07-09 16:39
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	5	$90	105	105	+0	Yes	+$20	06-15 20:40
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	9	$89	142	79	+63	Golden Knights	+$32	05-25 02:20
wta muchova gauff 2026 07 09	2	$89	152	0	+152	Karolina Muchova	-$89	07-09 15:09
atp landalu fritz 2026 06 10	2	$85	118	0	+118	Taylor Fritz	-$85	06-11 16:11
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	3	$85	60	60	+0	Yes	+$5	06-15 02:43
atp kopriva buse 2026 07 20	2	$84	54	53	+1	Ignacio Buse	+$7	07-20 16:16
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	5	$81	103	103	+0	Yes	+$21	06-15 23:48
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6	$81	143	143	+0	No	-$1	07-08 01:48
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	4	$79	121	121	+0	No	-$71	05-06 20:56
mlb col lad 2026 07 08	2	$78	89	0	+89	Los Angeles Dodgers	+$11	07-09 04:26
atp droguet carabel 2026 07 20	2	$77	43	43	+0	Titouan Droguet	+$3	07-20 14:43
mlb atl sd 2026 06 23	4	$76	72	72	+0	San Diego Padres	-$18	06-24 04:06
nfl ind ne 2026 08 13	2	$76	57	57	+0	cancelled	-$8	08-14 02:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 05:32:38	Predators vs. Golden Knights	Golden Knights	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xcad37f…
11-14 03:02:47	Predators vs. Golden Knights	Golden Knights	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x6d5f91…
11-14 00:35:37	Will Argentina win on 2026-11-13?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x54705d…
11-14 00:34:46	Rangers vs. Canucks	Rangers	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x5f1467…
11-14 00:34:21	Grizzlies vs. Pelicans	Grizzlies	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x4144fe…
11-14 00:33:28	Knicks vs. Pacers	Knicks	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x4c24fd…
11-13 23:34:16	Will Argentina win on 2026-11-13?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xe831f0…
11-13 21:51:19	Will Portugal win on 2026-11-14?	Yes	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0xc46678…
11-13 18:55:42	Will Portugal win on 2026-11-14?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xae10f0…
11-13 17:47:24	Will Switzerland win on 2026-11-13?	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x37023d…
11-13 15:49:22	BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti	Taylor Fritz	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xd15f84…
11-13 05:09:42	Islanders vs. Kings	Islanders	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x874756…
11-13 04:06:58	Islanders vs. Kings	Islanders	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x3c2995…
11-12 23:42:30	Raptors vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	11	73¢	$8	0xdfcd70…
11-12 23:41:06	Lightning vs. Blue Jackets	Lightning	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xb6cdc4…
11-12 23:40:45	Avalanche vs. Senators	Avalanche	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x37b5ff…
11-12 16:15:10	Will Spain win on 2026-11-12?	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xb2edf9…
11-12 16:14:19	Will France win on 2026-11-12?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x857b65…
11-12 16:13:46	Will Belgium win on 2026-11-12?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xb2cc6b…
11-12 03:04:48	Utah vs. Golden Knights	Golden Knights	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x7d54ce…
11-12 03:04:36	Thunder vs. Trail Blazers	Thunder	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x26b5d5…
11-12 03:03:10	Rangers vs. Flames	Rangers	SELL	9	86¢	$7	0x9a32a8…
11-12 02:35:24	Celtics vs. Raptors	Celtics	SELL	9	83¢	$8	0x4fcabc…
11-12 02:00:03	Flyers vs. Oilers	Oilers	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x9af536…
11-12 01:59:43	Magic vs. Jazz	Magic	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x99c327…
11-12 00:39:37	Rangers vs. Flames	Rangers	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xb4d650…
11-12 00:39:03	Celtics vs. Raptors	Celtics	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xf97439…
11-11 16:03:25	BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Taylor Fritz vs Cameron Norrie	Taylor Fritz	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x3fbb1a…
11-11 12:25:24	BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Alejandro Tabilo	Alejandro Tabilo	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xed5f1a…
11-11 03:43:09	Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 220.5	Over	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x291f64…
11-11 01:23:49	Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs	Avalanche	BUY	5	89¢	$5	0x3ebe25…
11-10 13:40:43	BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Quentin Halys	Quentin Halys	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xf467e0…
11-10 04:37:03	Matsuyama: Shintaro Imai vs Fajing Sun	Shintaro Imai	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x4748d5…
11-10 03:55:58	Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 223.5	Over	SELL	11	10¢	$1	0xe38f72…
11-10 03:18:28	Pelicans vs. Warriors	Warriors	BUY	15	86¢	$13	0xe85e6d…
11-10 02:46:25	Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 223.5	Over	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x0f9967…
11-10 00:42:22	Lakers vs. Hawks	Lakers	BUY	12	73¢	$9	0xda7ee1…
11-10 00:25:51	Lakers vs. Hawks	Lakers	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x9d9513…
11-09 21:35:24	Lima: Hugo Dellien vs Tristan Boyer	Tristan Boyer	SELL	17	82¢	$14	0x4c3a34…
11-09 20:11:39	Lima: Hugo Dellien vs Tristan Boyer	Tristan Boyer	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x762f5a…
11-09 20:05:42	Lima: Hugo Dellien vs Tristan Boyer	Tristan Boyer	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x5c547a…
11-09 03:09:06	Heat vs. Kings: O/U 240.5	Over	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x38e2c5…
11-09 01:30:54	Penguins vs. Ducks	Ducks	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xc96b17…
11-08 23:42:54	Lakers vs. Pistons	Lakers	SELL	11	69¢	$8	0x593df9…
11-08 23:19:57	Lakers vs. Pistons	Lakers	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x4fd920…
11-08 20:07:07	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x4c03a5…
11-08 19:44:54	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?	Yes	SELL	16	0¢	$0	0xaba48e…
11-08 19:16:10	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x032969…
11-08 17:37:00	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xbc9a75…
11-08 17:20:55	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xf12d21…
11-08 16:34:39	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x4bab94…
11-08 16:27:49	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xdf9ba7…
11-08 16:27:18	Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x03d3f4…
11-08 16:26:58	Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x80b541…
11-08 16:26:51	Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xffa023…
11-08 15:54:18	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0x1240fd…
11-08 13:31:51	Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	2	77¢	$2	0x3fda3f…
11-08 13:31:16	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x573e5f…
11-08 13:30:37	Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x98f5cb…
11-08 05:56:03	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xbcb1fb…
11-08 04:08:21	Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Spurs	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0x7e2ef2…
11-08 01:02:51	Wizards vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	15	84¢	$12	0x1b92e7…
11-07 20:16:46	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x0c440e…
11-07 02:43:09	76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5	Over	BUY	39	28¢	$11	0x90ea43…
11-07 01:01:00	Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5	Over	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0x837b43…
11-07 00:56:39	76ers vs. Cavaliers	76ers	SELL	13	35¢	$4	0x11176c…
11-07 00:32:57	76ers vs. Cavaliers	76ers	BUY	13	58¢	$7	0x5b098d…
11-06 21:58:55	Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Nuno Borges	Casper Ruud	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x6ed631…
11-06 20:43:27	Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	SELL	26	9¢	$2	0x71a025…
11-06 20:07:49	Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x1ce8ab…
11-06 18:47:03	Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xa0f2ae…
11-06 15:36:15	Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata	Luca Van Assche	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x46656a…
11-06 05:11:12	Heat vs. Warriors	Warriors	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0x03c5cc…
11-06 04:45:09	Heat vs. Warriors	Warriors	BUY	16	85¢	$14	0xeb40d3…
11-06 03:17:12	Heat vs. Warriors	Warriors	SELL	8	43¢	$4	0xa693a7…
11-06 03:14:13	Magic vs. Suns: O/U 217.5	Over	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x28abfa…
11-06 03:13:07	Heat vs. Warriors	Warriors	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x886a4d…
11-06 01:59:51	Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-11-05?	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x7b4230…
11-05 22:26:19	Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-11-05?	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x3af0ac…
11-04 23:08:34	Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0x1cfc6d…
11-04 19:03:40	Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Ugo Humbert	Matteo Berrettini	BUY	6	93¢	$5	0x8aa0c4…
11-04 16:00:40	Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz	Taylor Fritz	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x688672…
11-04 13:30:18	Rolex Paris Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Musetti	Alexander Zverev	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xcb48d8…
11-04 11:13:57	Rolex Paris Masters: Quentin Halys vs Frances Tiafoe	Frances Tiafoe	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xed5f71…
11-04 02:18:58	Hurricanes vs. Predators	Predators	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0x1b6445…
11-04 01:23:46	Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-11-03?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x958c44…
10-28 01:19:24	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xa2fde6…
10-28 01:16:45	Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 240.5	Over	BUY	102	5¢	$5	0xaa7057…
10-28 01:13:51	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Milwaukee Brewers	SELL	19	56¢	$10	0xbdc703…
10-27 23:37:00	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xc8fe4c…
10-27 21:04:14	Erste Bank Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Grigor Dimitrov	Flavio Cobolli	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x9d70c8…
10-27 18:10:32	Erste Bank Open: Alexander Zverev vs Martin Landaluce	Alexander Zverev	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0x25f823…
10-27 14:15:48	Erste Bank Open: Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0xcafb8f…
10-27 13:01:35	Tommy Paul vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Over 2.5	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xe78bf5…
10-27 04:11:09	Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5	Under	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xb9edab…
10-27 03:31:08	Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 218.5	Under	SELL	24	88¢	$21	0x6f93ea…
10-27 03:27:20	Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 218.5	Under	BUY	24	51¢	$12	0x2b3f57…
10-27 01:40:44	Mavericks vs. Heat	Mavericks	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x1ff6cf…
10-27 01:09:26	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Timberwolves	SELL	10	58¢	$6	0x42a2b2…
10-27 00:33:05	Kings vs. Rangers	Rangers	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0xc64ef6…