Familiar-Instrument — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

23.5%

Resolved

Trades

167

lifetime

Volume

$243

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 07-09 08:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

61% 0% $-2

Other

23% 50% +$0

Sports

11% — —

Tech

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	3	$22	52	23	+29	open	—	01-24 13:40
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	2	$19	14	14	+0	open	—	02-28 21:46
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	5	$10	24	24	+0	open	—	03-17 19:55
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	1	$10	17	0	+17	open	—	01-08 22:35
will google have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 941	2	$9	6	5	+1	open	—	02-04 01:14
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	3	$8	11	7	+4	open	—	01-14 21:40
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	3	$7	54	0	+54	open	—	05-30 00:53
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	02-28 21:46
will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	2	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	02-28 11:52
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	3	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	03-23 00:04
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	3	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	01-25 02:37
will israel strike 2 countries in january 2026	3	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	01-23 22:23
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	4	$4	5	5	+0	open	—	02-04 09:51
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	3	$3	3	3	+0	open	—	03-07 20:07
israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	2	$3	10	5	+5	open	—	01-14 21:22
will usd reach 1pt5m iranian rials by january 31	2	$3	3	3	+0	open	—	01-27 21:48
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	5	$3	0	6	-6	Yes	$-2	05-09 12:08
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-07 18:26
us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	4	$3	3	3	+0	open	—	02-02 23:56
will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	3	$3	3	3	+0	open	—	02-18 16:10
israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	3	$3	3	2	+1	open	—	02-28 22:57
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	2	$3	19	0	+19	open	—	01-08 22:18
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	2	$3	6	0	+6	open	—	01-09 23:52
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$3	4	3	+1	open	—	01-29 09:52
will israel strike gaza on january 9 2026	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	01-10 18:48
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	02-28 21:49
Will the US strike Somalia next?	3	$3	7	3	+4	open	—	01-15 19:45
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	3	$3	4	3	+1	open	—	03-11 08:35
another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026	5	$2	7	5	+2	open	—	04-06 10:48
ice shooter charged by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	02-18 16:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-09 08:35:31	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x581e1e…
07-09 08:35:02	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x633381…
07-09 08:34:10	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x30fdf7…
07-09 08:33:47	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x6870b6…
07-09 08:29:59	will ukraine re enter myrnohrad by december 31	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x82129e…
07-09 08:29:38	will ukraine re enter hryshyne by september 30	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xcae8ad…
07-09 08:28:37	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xac14ff…
06-16 11:20:19	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0xfcc16b…
05-30 00:53:26	Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	Canadiens	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x91445d…
05-30 00:52:11	Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	Canadiens	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xbec3d8…
05-29 23:48:54	Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x36fa3f…
05-29 23:48:40	Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5	Over	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xd4c1fe…
05-29 23:47:58	Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	Canadiens	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xaa73ff…
05-29 23:42:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x7a1547…
05-09 12:08:19	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x063024…
04-24 10:30:50	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xd73553…
04-20 09:30:24	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0x9e00f7…
04-15 10:52:30	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	1	53¢	$0	0x504a1e…
04-11 11:34:33	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x637d1d…
04-07 18:26:31	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x96a7e3…
04-06 10:48:23	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0x5e281e…
04-06 10:46:49	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x8eca6a…
04-06 00:59:05	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x66630d…
03-30 08:26:30	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x7fa69a…
03-30 08:24:32	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xc6ed23…
03-30 08:22:38	Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x577e2f…
03-25 07:26:19	will the us invade iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xe6be4f…
03-25 07:25:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x9856be…
03-25 07:18:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xf0c8ca…
03-25 07:16:45	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x211f69…
03-23 00:04:23	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0xffecbd…
03-20 19:07:37	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0xb751ac…
03-20 19:07:13	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0xe57dc0…
03-20 19:05:55	iran leadership change by march 31	Yes	SELL	2	14¢	$0	0x8c2eed…
03-20 00:40:29	iran leadership change by march 31	Yes	SELL	2	26¢	$1	0xfcff3b…
03-18 17:20:05	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x25d546…
03-17 20:08:55	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xc5fdcc…
03-17 20:08:49	iran leadership change by march 31	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xd33903…
03-17 19:55:27	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x9fb2b0…
03-17 07:22:43	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	2	68¢	$2	0x49ae97…
03-17 07:21:11	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	1	47¢	$1	0x543ad4…
03-11 08:35:01	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	1	35¢	$0	0x89939e…
03-10 21:48:55	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	SELL	2	78¢	$1	0x27cd63…
03-09 23:13:13	will the us conduct a cyberattack on iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	2	26¢	$0	0x2aea61…
03-08 20:11:51	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0xfdfe8f…
03-07 20:08:13	will trump declare war on iran by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	4	15¢	$1	0x7fdbb7…
03-07 20:07:31	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x96c97b…
03-06 19:08:15	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0x88f00b…
03-04 16:39:07	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026	No	SELL	3	24¢	$1	0xed4a1a…
03-04 00:37:31	will trump declare war on iran by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x37452c…
03-04 00:34:35	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x9db19e…
03-04 00:33:37	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x92e3b9…
03-01 14:40:51	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x3cd56d…
03-01 01:24:53	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x0ed3af…
02-28 22:57:51	israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x7b2e90…
02-28 21:55:33	israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x8a174d…
02-28 21:51:57	will the us conduct a cyberattack on iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	1	36¢	$0	0x2b284b…
02-28 21:49:09	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xdf6ef5…
02-28 21:46:45	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$4	0x074c49…
02-28 21:46:39	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x805b06…
02-28 18:45:51	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0x799de6…
02-28 12:59:43	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x64eccb…
02-28 12:57:05	Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xe8eeae…
02-28 12:56:37	will russia capture all of rodynske by april 30	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xdba66d…
02-28 12:01:21	will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x666b06…
02-28 11:57:33	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xd9a77f…
02-28 11:52:17	will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xf53e87…
02-26 10:27:36	will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x37c22b…
02-19 20:46:14	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x72a043…
02-19 10:43:08	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x3bab27…
02-19 01:01:54	will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	No	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x853666…
02-19 00:59:26	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xc9411e…
02-19 00:58:30	US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x4b9d42…
02-19 00:57:40	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xeaabb8…
02-18 20:18:10	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xfbc497…
02-18 16:10:28	ice shooter charged by march 31	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x591f3d…
02-18 16:10:10	will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x6a7f5e…
02-18 16:09:38	will google have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	Yes	SELL	3	28¢	$1	0x23bc76…
02-11 23:53:11	will openai have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x0fd2e8…
02-11 23:53:07	will google have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x73ab2d…
02-11 23:50:01	us x iran meeting by february 28 2026	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x6a06ca…
02-11 23:48:25	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x0839e7…
02-07 19:32:35	will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	No	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x2b2570…
02-07 19:01:45	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xdea8ae…
02-05 01:36:49	Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0x3ee685…
02-04 09:51:38	will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	Yes	SELL	3	68¢	$2	0xdedda9…
02-04 09:51:00	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x239e92…
02-04 09:50:50	us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xa942e3…
02-04 01:14:58	will google have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 941	Yes	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x65a42e…
02-02 23:56:20	us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x05e16b…
02-01 19:50:40	us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x7d46f0…
01-31 22:43:00	Will the US strike 5 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0x175b86…
01-31 02:10:12	will another country recognize somaliland by march 31	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x1246d8…
01-31 02:07:26	will the us conduct a cyberattack on iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x5ec617…
01-31 02:03:48	will russia strike on kyiv municipality on january 31 125	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x7cf0e8…
01-31 02:01:28	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x4ad3ef…
01-31 00:27:48	us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xe66f8c…
01-30 02:04:32	us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xcc750a…
01-29 23:50:50	will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xa86ebb…
01-29 09:52:16	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	SELL	3	57¢	$2	0xb789da…