Careful-Approach — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.2%

Resolved

291

Trades

292

lifetime

Volume

$3.39K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-29 07:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 221 days

Categories

Other

95% 100% +$6

Politics

5% 89% -$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 14?	1	$27	27	+27	Yes	+$0	05-14 15:02
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$27	27	+27	No	-$27	05-15 04:59
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 2?	1	$26	26	+26	Yes	+$0	05-02 13:52
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$26	26	+26	No	+$0	04-30 08:49
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$26	27	+27	Yes	+$1	05-03 03:33
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?	1	$26	26	+26	Yes	+$0	04-29 13:41
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on April 28?	1	$26	26	+26	Yes	+$0	04-28 10:45
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 27?	1	$26	26	+26	No	+$0	04-28 01:39
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 27?	1	$26	26	+26	No	+$0	04-27 10:29
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 26?	1	$26	26	+26	Yes	+$0	04-27 01:31
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on April 26?	1	$26	26	+26	No	+$0	04-26 09:13
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on April 25?	1	$26	26	+26	Yes	+$0	04-25 12:10
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	1	$25	26	+26	No	+$0	04-24 09:04
highest temperature in toronto on april 23 2026 18c	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-24 02:55
highest temperature in tokyo on april 23 2026 19c	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-23 07:19
highest temperature in jakarta on april 22 2026 35c	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-22 10:16
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$1	04-21 15:51
highest temperature in wellington on april 21 2026 15corhigher	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-21 06:25
highest temperature in buenos aires on april 20 2026 20c	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-21 01:21
highest temperature in karachi on april 20 2026 34c	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-20 16:46
highest temperature in wellington on april 20 2026 15c	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-20 06:09
highest temperature in lucknow on april 19 2026 42c	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-19 16:08
highest temperature in wellington on april 19 2026 18c	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-19 05:40
highest temperature in moscow on april 18 2026 10c	1	$24	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-18 15:19
highest temperature in wellington on april 18 2026 18c	1	$24	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-18 08:05
highest temperature in manila on april 17 2026 35c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-17 10:19
highest temperature in seattle on april 16 2026 54 55f	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-17 03:46
highest temperature in busan on april 16 2026 21c	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-16 12:01
highest temperature in los angeles on april 15 2026 68 69f	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	04-16 05:52
highest temperature in istanbul on april 15 2026 18c	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	04-15 14:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 07:14:05	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on October 29?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x60bbb4…
10-28 04:58:02	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x651ed7…
10-27 07:57:11	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7d82b3…
10-26 05:31:29	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on October 26?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x173eab…
10-24 06:50:59	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on October 24?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x41c980…
10-23 07:13:47	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 23?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x34d755…
10-21 08:57:20	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 21?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe705fd…
10-19 06:43:14	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on October 19?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0x768c0d…
10-18 07:28:38	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6e488f…
10-17 07:21:32	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe0e780…
10-16 05:12:06	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3ecfcc…
10-15 06:37:32	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x13d975…
10-14 07:11:28	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc9dec5…
10-13 14:01:46	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfae48d…
10-13 04:32:14	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0dff39…
10-12 04:25:12	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on October 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x281350…
10-11 03:13:03	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or below on October 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe3ac7c…
10-08 05:15:50	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8ed23e…
10-07 08:54:11	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on October 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2d1161…
10-06 07:12:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7a40cf…
10-04 08:26:29	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on October 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x40c831…
10-03 03:02:00	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd882e3…
10-02 07:21:36	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x508a84…
10-02 03:13:11	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbecb6c…
10-01 07:35:53	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3f0c98…
09-30 07:38:45	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xad7747…
09-29 07:13:30	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1a283d…
09-28 08:14:41	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x56ef35…
09-27 02:29:02	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on September 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9f8021…
09-25 07:54:08	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on September 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf103f5…
09-24 06:41:48	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1755af…
09-23 05:15:10	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on September 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x957ef6…
09-22 06:13:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on September 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc283ea…
09-21 08:21:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfc20d1…
09-20 03:07:10	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on September 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa49e60…
09-19 06:48:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdcc1f1…
09-18 01:10:34	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x291a42…
09-17 03:42:54	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1aa8cc…
09-16 08:45:07	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfc602f…
09-15 23:34:40	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x008bdb…
09-15 02:27:30	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbe0b35…
09-14 02:44:19	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on September 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb82b2d…
09-13 12:50:19	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on September 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x745159…
09-12 07:28:19	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x125fc0…
09-11 06:26:33	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C or below on September 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbe4e7c…
09-10 01:32:12	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on September 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x163d3e…
09-09 01:00:54	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on September 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe839c2…
09-08 01:07:33	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbfd201…
09-07 01:50:30	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x19e527…
09-06 01:14:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on September 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x448af2…
09-05 09:20:18	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5fbcf9…
09-04 08:19:27	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfc8bf8…
09-03 01:27:48	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on September 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xebbc67…
09-01 01:24:09	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on August 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe79850…
08-30 00:14:22	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x625cc6…
08-29 05:50:22	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x43f53a…
08-28 01:30:01	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x873089…
08-27 01:18:09	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 27?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xc57955…
08-26 02:02:16	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0cf337…
08-25 06:42:19	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2e4589…
08-24 07:18:12	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x652015…
08-23 07:22:19	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaea367…
08-22 06:30:31	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x697a7e…
08-21 01:28:09	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5f0902…
08-20 05:37:39	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8f53a1…
08-19 07:22:39	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x63c6b7…
08-18 00:19:31	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on August 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfbc8b7…
08-17 06:07:01	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc4a41b…
08-16 01:52:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbce51d…
08-15 02:33:55	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x709e66…
08-14 01:22:27	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x14fa65…
08-13 00:26:54	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on August 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc586d1…
08-12 06:47:48	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcbc522…
08-11 00:25:18	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5d92c4…
08-10 00:27:12	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdee1d2…
08-09 07:45:43	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe3d14b…
08-09 00:28:04	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdab540…
08-08 06:58:40	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6eaf50…
08-07 00:26:45	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7ebb77…
08-06 00:24:08	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1ea488…
08-05 00:34:20	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1ee745…
08-04 03:26:47	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xeed123…
08-03 00:18:51	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on August 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6c3da7…
08-02 00:21:30	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7416ae…
08-01 00:16:50	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x75a30f…
07-31 07:12:50	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6468cc…
07-30 00:17:11	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfc2b9a…
07-29 01:12:20	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x39bae2…
07-28 00:22:52	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6253b3…
07-27 06:53:54	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1b5fc9…
07-26 01:07:13	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe7473f…
07-25 00:31:21	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5a07be…
07-24 01:19:07	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x734094…
07-23 09:15:00	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa0a257…
07-23 00:57:48	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on July 22?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x35f502…
07-22 01:28:10	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd5ede5…
07-20 23:35:46	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc95dee…
07-19 22:27:15	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc3a953…
07-18 22:04:48	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6ab0c6…
07-17 23:44:58	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on July 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2be75b…