Wrong-Terrapin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$163

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

97.0%

Resolved

9,857

Trades

12,643

lifetime

Volume

$226.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 01:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 207 days

Categories

Other

87% 69% -$92

Sports

10% 96% +$27

Politics

2% 35% -$22

Crypto

1% 41% -$69

Pop-Culture

0% 96% +$2

Tech

0% 27% -$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 163 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes		-5	-$4	94¢	$-4	-$1	06-04 02:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
pakistan strikes afghanistan by february 27 2026 323	1	$943	944	0	+944	Yes	+$1	02-27 02:07
hok ltg sygami 2026 02 06 game4	2	$522	523	0	+523	SYGaming	+$1	02-06 07:55
will pain gaming win cblol cup 2026	1	$400	401	0	+401	No	+$0	02-04 02:50
will the margin of victory in the gorton and denton by election be between 6 and 9	1	$313	313	0	+313	No	+$0	02-27 06:57
will bruno mars release the romantic before march	1	$218	218	0	+218	Yes	+$0	02-27 08:06
wta rakhimo zhang 2026 01 09 match total 22pt5	1	$212	213	0	+213	Over	+$0	01-10 03:21
cbb den stmn 2026 01 03	2	$212	106	106	+0	St. Thomas (MN) Tommies	+$0	01-13 01:22
bitcoin up or down january 29 8pm et	1	$211	211	0	+211	Down	+$0	01-30 01:56
atp shepp struff 2026 01 09 set totals 2pt5	1	$207	207	0	+207	Under 2.5	+$0	01-10 03:31
atp kovacev nakashi 2026 01 09 set handicap away 1pt5	2	$201	201	0	+201	Nakashima	+$0	01-10 05:34
craus hob ade 2026 01 09 most sixes hob	1	$191	191	0	+191	Yes	+$0	01-09 11:31
val f9 erah 2026 01 09 map handicap away 1pt5	1	$181	181	0	+181	Erah Esport	+$0	01-10 00:21
ethereum etf flows on february 26	1	$180	180	0	+180	Positive	+$0	02-27 07:25
dota2 aur1 re 2026 01 09 total games 2pt5	1	$171	171	0	+171	Over	+$0	01-09 21:21
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 11 2026 29c	8	$166	138	31	+107	No	+$1	04-11 08:58
dota2 yg baiyaw 2026 01 09 kill handicap home 12pt5	1	$165	165	0	+165	Yangon Galacticos	+$0	01-09 09:01
nba dal uta 2026 01 08 assists naji marshall 3pt5	1	$160	161	0	+161	Yes	+$0	01-09 06:51
dota2 4p pr1 2026 01 10 kill handicap home 25pt5	1	$159	159	0	+159	Power Rangers	+$0	01-10 13:01
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 19 2026 27c	5	$158	79	79	+0	No	+$1	04-18 14:02
Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?	12	$143	200	200	+0	No	-$77	09-03 08:16
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 10 2026 31c	5	$142	90	66	+24	No	+$3	04-10 02:32
atp musetti wong 2026 01 09 match total 22pt5	1	$141	142	0	+142	Under	+$0	01-09 07:11
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on August 31?	2	$141	100	100	+0	Yes	+$1	08-31 03:00
wta pegula kostyuk 2026 01 10 first set total 10pt5	1	$131	131	0	+131	Under	+$0	01-10 07:11
dota2 liquid ngx 2026 01 09 kill handicap away 27pt5	1	$122	122	0	+122	Team Liquid	+$0	01-09 17:51
dota2 baiyaw carst 2026 01 10 kill handicap away 18pt5	1	$122	122	0	+122	Carstensz	+$0	01-10 08:41
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 15 2026 28c	1	$122	128	0	+128	No	+$6	04-15 02:23
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$121	64	64	+0	No	+$6	04-01 03:57
crint lka pak 2026 01 08 completed match	1	$114	114	0	+114	No	+$0	01-10 05:01
Will Aécio Neves win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?	7	$114	60	60	+0	No	-$1	08-29 14:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 01:43:45	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xa2f5cb…
10-26 01:43:45	Will Team Liquid win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x6823d1…
10-26 01:43:45	Will Faroe Islands win 2026-27 Nations League Group C3?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x1d6a4d…
10-26 01:43:44	Will Timothée Chalamet be the #2 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xfa719b…
10-26 01:43:44	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xf272cf…
10-26 01:43:44	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xedd48c…
10-26 01:43:44	Will Sjokz Win the 2026 Esports Personality of the Year Award?	Yes	SELL	13	0¢	$0	0xcf9f53…
10-26 01:43:44	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on October 27?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xa01e1a…
10-26 01:43:44	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x9bb536…
10-26 01:43:44	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x797580…
10-26 01:43:44	Will Snax Gaming Win the 2026 Streamer of the Year Award?	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0x771790…
10-26 01:43:42	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xa4e5b1…
10-26 01:43:42	Will Champi peak as a Very strong typhoon?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x8662e8…
10-26 01:43:42	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x79fdd5…
10-26 01:43:42	Will Villanova win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x6ee7eb…
10-26 01:43:42	Will Luxembourg win the UEFA EURO 2028?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x62fd3c…
10-26 01:43:42	Will AJ Barner be the highest-scoring TE of the 2026-27 NFL season?	Yes	SELL	18	0¢	$0	0x27dfd0…
10-26 01:43:42	Will A.J. Brown finish as a top-12 FLEX in the 2026-27 NFL season?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x104f0d…
10-26 01:43:42	Will Mauricio Pochettino be the next head coach of the England national team?	No	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x0e7def…
10-26 01:43:41	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-02 House election by 18% or more?	Yes	SELL	15	5¢	$1	0xc43603…
10-26 01:42:54	Will Blackburn Rovers be promoted to Premier League?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xdca6e5…
10-26 01:42:54	Welltower (WELL) Q3 same store NOI (SSNOI) growth <12%?	Yes	SELL	19	1¢	$0	0x4ad55f…
10-26 01:41:08	Will Anders Carlson finish as a top-5 K in the 2026-27 NFL season?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x5da4de…
10-26 01:39:57	Will Oklahoma have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	U 7.5	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xc180d2…
10-26 01:25:03	Will Malik Nabers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage touchdowns?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xff3a64…
10-26 01:24:54	Will Wendell Carter Jr. win the 2026-27 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x852075…
10-26 01:24:47	Will Charlton Athletic be promoted to Premier League?	No	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0xac5683…
10-26 01:24:39	Will BNG win the most seats in A Coruña in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$4	0x0e1580…
10-26 01:24:21	Will brawk play for NRG in 2027?	No	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0x5dd991…
10-26 01:24:11	Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2026-27 NHL Metropolitan Division?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0xd32d4d…
10-26 01:24:05	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth 1.5% to 2.5%?	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x29f760…
10-26 01:23:57	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on November 23, 2026?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xebd17f…
10-26 01:23:51	Will Anthony Edwards win the 2026-27 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xbbbdbe…
10-26 00:53:14	Will the Student List win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by less than 2%?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0xd6e808…
10-26 00:37:00	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Federal District?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x217a00…
10-26 00:36:51	Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xbf0534…
10-26 00:13:00	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of Rio de Janeiro?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x038f19…
10-26 00:07:54	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x333c68…
10-25 23:52:15	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of Rio de Janeiro?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xa160ff…
10-25 23:36:32	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x143429…
10-25 23:35:39	Will Matthew Stafford be the first QB to 2,000 passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x4b3eda…
10-25 23:34:44	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x5c621b…
10-25 23:19:44	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 2°C on October 26?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x62e326…
10-25 23:14:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$10	0xaec62a…
10-25 23:13:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	No	BUY	11	96¢	$10	0x3965c6…
10-25 23:10:59	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 2°C on October 26?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x98b3ad…
10-25 23:07:14	Will Charlton Athletic be promoted to Premier League?	No	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x6b8afa…
10-25 22:46:21	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on October 25?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xbd8a2f…
10-25 22:45:35	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on October 25?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x18f828…
10-25 22:41:45	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xc8eace…
10-25 22:29:54	Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Tennessee in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x4511c0…
10-25 21:55:11	Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Tennessee in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	8	94¢	$8	0x3760fc…
10-25 21:53:18	Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Tennessee in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x36f66a…
10-25 21:53:18	Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Tennessee in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x0d5610…
10-25 21:28:17	Will the Student List win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by less than 2%?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x2e6f4e…
10-25 20:37:42	Will Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xaa8228…
10-25 19:59:32	Will the Miami Dolphins be the last winless team of the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xcef235…
10-25 19:59:08	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 25?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x3c6d5f…
10-25 19:59:05	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 25?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0x1641c7…
10-25 19:57:47	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xac3261…
10-25 19:55:39	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on October 25?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x0612d5…
10-25 19:51:32	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x125045…
10-25 19:38:39	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 69°F or below on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x7cc1d6…
10-25 18:56:35	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x82b8b3…
10-25 18:23:36	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth <-0.5%?	No	SELL	8	95¢	$8	0xe645ff…
10-25 18:08:03	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x4e7a3f…
10-25 18:04:23	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xd8eab3…
10-25 17:59:36	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x9d1dae…
10-25 15:50:06	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x742b6f…
10-25 15:36:29	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x4b3c53…
10-25 15:36:00	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xd43355…
10-25 14:31:29	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xb4cc7d…
10-25 13:55:14	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x8f0b11…
10-25 12:57:00	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x3fe817…
10-25 12:48:41	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x68f69d…
10-25 12:48:02	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x8627f5…
10-25 11:30:51	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x8b4873…
10-25 11:30:50	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x7e6148…
10-25 11:21:53	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x65768e…
10-25 11:04:21	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xe818e2…
10-25 11:04:20	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x0ffa9f…
10-25 11:00:45	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xfb63cd…
10-25 10:58:02	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	19	0¢	$0	0x4afd79…
10-25 10:45:24	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa47800…
10-25 10:40:27	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x3752e9…
10-25 10:23:35	Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Tennessee in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x25473e…
10-25 10:23:03	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on November 23, 2026?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xdf4a53…
10-25 08:34:20	Will Lisa Beare win the next Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x54bc69…
10-25 08:31:14	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xc6669a…
10-25 08:31:02	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 25?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x315651…
10-25 08:30:44	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 25?	No	SELL	17	96¢	$16	0x89cd42…
10-25 08:30:17	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 25?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x75c1e5…
10-25 08:10:09	highest temperature in shenzhen on october 27 2026 35corhigher	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xbafa0a…
10-25 07:45:33	Will Jagrup Brar win the next Surrey-Fleetwood British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x3159b6…
10-25 07:23:05	lowest temperature in shanghai on october 27 2026 12c	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x3bc335…
10-25 06:38:09	Will Diana Javorčíková win the 2026 Banská Bystrica mayoral election?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xcaecf8…
10-25 06:37:05	Will Diana Javorčíková win the 2026 Banská Bystrica mayoral election?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xd82a55…
10-25 06:35:24	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on October 25?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xbc8db8…
10-25 06:34:20	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on October 25?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xe37beb…
10-25 06:01:38	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xfea1cf…