Perky-Alder-Warning — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

65.1%

Resolved

257

Trades

777

lifetime

Volume

$6.74K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-14

last 09-03 22:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 65% -$8

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-14 23:15 UTC	8	$328	335	306	+29	Up	-$20	06-14 23:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	9	$273	288	228	+60	Up	+$27	06-14 22:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	10	$236	190	156	+33	Up	-$4	06-16 00:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	7	$203	151	151	+0	Down	-$5	06-12 23:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-14 22:45 UTC	6	$176	151	151	+0	Down	+$18	06-14 22:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-18 19:00 UTC	8	$162	138	138	+0	Down	+$9	06-18 19:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	9	$160	126	126	+0	Up	-$6	06-15 23:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-18 18:15 UTC	6	$135	110	110	+0	Up	+$9	06-18 18:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	6	$124	116	82	+33	Up	+$2	06-16 01:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	10	$117	105	105	+0	Up	+$9	06-15 23:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-18 19:45 UTC	8	$113	110	97	+13	Down	-$23	06-18 19:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	10	$113	108	108	+0	Down	-$21	06-16 01:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 01:00 UTC	6	$102	74	58	+16	Up	+$0	06-16 01:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-19 02:15 UTC	5	$99	94	54	+40	Down	-$16	06-19 02:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	5	$97	69	52	+17	Down	+$1	06-16 00:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 00:30 UTC	5	$92	59	59	+0	Up	+$4	06-16 00:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	10	$88	144	93	+51	Up	+$3	06-15 23:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 00:15 UTC	4	$85	73	73	+0	Down	-$5	06-16 00:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	5	$81	88	71	+17	Up	-$22	06-15 00:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-15 01:15 UTC	6	$79	76	66	+10	Down	+$9	06-15 01:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-18 18:00 UTC	6	$77	53	53	+0	Up	+$7	06-18 18:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-15 23:15 UTC	8	$77	99	86	+13	Down	-$27	06-15 23:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-12 02:45 UTC	4	$74	45	45	+0	Down	+$8	06-12 02:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	4	$71	91	19	+72	Up	+$4	06-13 23:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-14 22:00 UTC	3	$70	82	43	+39	Down	-$27	06-14 22:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-14 21:30 UTC	5	$69	134	27	+108	Up	+$7	06-14 21:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-14 21:45 UTC	5	$64	106	30	+76	Up	+$9	06-14 21:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-18 18:30 UTC	6	$64	52	52	+0	Down	+$4	06-18 18:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	6	$63	51	51	+0	Down	+$3	05-20 21:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	13	$63	165	78	+87	Down	+$5	06-15 22:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-03 22:35:16	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	11	50¢	$6	0x89cd09…
08-07 00:50:14	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x7f7b9d…
08-07 00:46:02	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x7456cc…
08-07 00:42:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x7a56cf…
08-07 00:42:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Down	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0x889818…
08-07 00:41:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xb434e8…
08-07 00:41:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Up	SELL	2	21¢	$1	0xf8d6e0…
08-07 00:41:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Down	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x3d745e…
08-07 00:40:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x596be9…
08-07 00:40:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xbf0a0b…
08-07 00:40:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Up	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xf1508f…
08-07 00:40:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x1eb808…
08-07 00:40:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Up	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x607ba4…
08-07 00:40:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x2760ab…
08-07 00:40:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Up	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x037ccd…
08-07 00:39:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xbf3b68…
08-07 00:39:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Down	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x8dc5e9…
08-07 00:39:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x052ca3…
08-07 00:39:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xc12278…
08-07 00:35:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xc2bae5…
08-06 22:59:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 22:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x27aa1b…
08-06 22:39:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 22:35 UTC	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xf1a25b…
08-06 22:39:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 22:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xdaba19…
08-06 22:39:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 22:35 UTC	Down	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x1aa362…
08-06 22:10:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 22:05 UTC	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa92a3a…
08-06 22:09:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 22:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xbf0da4…
08-06 22:09:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 22:05 UTC	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xd4f634…
07-31 05:32:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0xbf462c…
07-31 05:10:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 05:05 UTC	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xbc156c…
07-31 05:07:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 05:05 UTC	Down	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x72fdb4…
07-31 05:00:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 04:55 UTC	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xf432a7…
07-31 04:59:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 04:55 UTC	Down	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x15ccbc…
07-31 04:30:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 04:25 UTC	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xeef7c3…
07-31 04:27:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 04:25 UTC	Up	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x0d0efc…
07-31 04:18:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 04:15 UTC	Down	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x40e5c6…
07-31 04:17:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 04:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	93¢	$4	0x22271c…
07-31 04:14:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 04:10 UTC	Down	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x142e96…
07-31 04:09:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 04:05 UTC	Down	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0xe1c656…
07-31 04:03:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xbf3466…
07-31 03:59:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xa8bf03…
07-31 03:58:36	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 03:45 UTC	Up	SELL	4	47¢	$2	0xb1ed34…
07-31 03:57:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xdbb0b0…
07-31 03:00:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 02:45 UTC	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x855808…
07-31 02:57:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xc381c8…
07-31 02:27:23	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x8e7fd8…
07-31 00:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x6e1449…
07-30 23:58:32	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-30 23:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xbe3cc7…
07-30 23:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xe840e3…
07-30 23:27:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-30 23:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xc3a343…
07-30 22:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x6bc9d4…
07-30 22:28:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xae6bd9…
07-30 20:27:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-30 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x49027b…
07-30 19:58:36	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-30 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x7552ff…
07-30 18:11:57	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-30 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x56668c…
07-30 13:40:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-30 13:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xa962a8…
07-26 05:29:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 05:25 UTC	Up	SELL	4	4¢	$0	0xf724f3…
07-26 05:25:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 05:25 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x03a44c…
07-26 05:24:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 05:20 UTC	Up	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0xfcc9a4…
07-26 05:20:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xe8ff24…
07-26 05:19:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 05:15 UTC	Up	SELL	4	7¢	$0	0x0a42be…
07-26 05:15:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x10945a…
07-26 05:10:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 05:10 UTC	Up	SELL	4	60¢	$2	0xa7f97c…
07-26 05:10:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 05:10 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xa5ef54…
07-26 05:06:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 05:05 UTC	Up	SELL	4	62¢	$2	0x34e2c5…
07-26 05:05:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 05:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xedaf40…
07-26 05:00:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 05:00 UTC	Down	SELL	4	69¢	$3	0xb0bc56…
07-26 05:00:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 05:00 UTC	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x87286d…
07-26 04:55:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:55 UTC	Down	SELL	4	62¢	$2	0x21eb4e…
07-26 04:55:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:55 UTC	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x2caead…
07-26 04:51:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:50 UTC	Down	SELL	4	62¢	$2	0xd369ef…
07-26 04:50:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:50 UTC	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x37ad35…
07-26 04:46:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:45 UTC	Down	SELL	4	69¢	$3	0xd5afb1…
07-26 04:45:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x51d21f…
07-26 04:41:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:40 UTC	Up	SELL	4	69¢	$3	0x16db61…
07-26 04:40:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:40 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xaefcaf…
07-26 04:31:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:30 UTC	Up	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0x68d1de…
07-26 04:30:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xdd39bd…
07-26 04:27:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:25 UTC	Up	SELL	0	66¢	$0	0x53dc95…
07-26 04:25:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:25 UTC	Up	SELL	4	59¢	$2	0x459439…
07-26 04:25:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:25 UTC	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x1a33ec…
07-26 04:19:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:15 UTC	Up	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0xe53030…
07-26 04:15:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x02097d…
07-26 04:13:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:10 UTC	Up	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0x3ef291…
07-26 04:10:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:10 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x7a476b…
07-26 04:05:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:05 UTC	Up	SELL	4	58¢	$2	0xb946d3…
07-26 04:05:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x7f24bd…
07-26 04:00:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:00 UTC	Down	SELL	4	65¢	$2	0xafcf7a…
07-26 04:00:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x054a78…
07-26 03:56:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 03:55 UTC	Down	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0x89f64a…
07-26 03:55:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 03:55 UTC	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x727b38…
07-26 03:52:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 03:50 UTC	Down	SELL	4	61¢	$2	0x0c39c1…
07-26 03:50:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 03:50 UTC	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x312dcc…
07-26 03:45:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 03:45 UTC	Up	SELL	4	57¢	$2	0x795538…
07-26 03:45:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x4f5bb9…
07-26 03:40:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 03:40 UTC	Down	SELL	3	58¢	$2	0x1f5d87…
07-26 03:40:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 03:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xc98658…
07-26 03:35:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 03:35 UTC	Down	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0x179605…
07-26 03:35:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 03:35 UTC	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xa1794d…
07-26 03:31:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 03:30 UTC	Down	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0xcee426…
07-26 03:30:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 03:30 UTC	Down	SELL	4	59¢	$2	0x845bc6…