Graceful-Coconut — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$20

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.1%

Resolved

Trades

286

lifetime

Volume

$7.81K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 06-21 20:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

49% 0% $-40

Politics

45% 100% +$20

Tech

5% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	3	$476	259	259	+0	open	—	04-19 14:55
Iran leadership change by March 13?	4	$422	222	222	+0	open	—	03-12 21:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	2	$396	211	211	+0	open	—	05-06 07:54
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?	1	$335	339	0	+339	open	—	04-28 07:53
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$304	155	155	+0	open	—	04-27 10:51
another us strike on venezuela by january 31 867	6	$270	139	139	+0	open	—	02-01 11:55
Iran leadership change by June 30?	1	$260	0	271	-271	open	—	06-06 20:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	4	$227	124	123	+1	open	—	04-17 16:20
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$222	128	128	+0	open	—	03-10 17:48
Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April?	2	$207	125	125	+0	open	—	04-27 10:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$192	143	143	+0	open	—	04-27 10:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	4	$167	94	94	+0	open	—	04-27 10:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	4	$149	93	93	+0	open	—	04-27 10:53
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	2	$147	79	79	+0	open	—	03-20 08:57
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	2	$142	85	85	+0	open	—	03-22 10:38
will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	2	$138	73	73	+0	open	—	03-23 10:35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	3	$136	79	78	+1	open	—	04-23 12:57
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$131	70	70	+0	open	—	04-04 08:38
US x Iran meeting by May 31, 2026?	1	$122	128	0	+128	open	—	04-10 11:00
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	2	$122	71	71	+0	open	—	04-13 20:24
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$112	60	60	+0	open	—	03-10 12:36
iran leadership change by march 31	2	$111	62	62	+0	open	—	03-29 12:03
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	2	$109	57	57	+0	open	—	03-09 16:13
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	3	$102	64	64	+0	open	—	05-24 12:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?	2	$100	54	54	+0	open	—	04-14 13:54
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	2	$98	56	56	+0	open	—	05-11 10:43
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$96	62	62	+0	open	—	05-07 17:11
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?	2	$95	73	73	+0	open	—	04-14 16:49
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	4	$89	54	54	+0	open	—	05-11 10:43
will spacex have 11 or more launches in february	6	$86	51	51	+0	open	—	02-25 09:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-21 20:01:04	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0xa5c0e3…
06-20 18:18:50	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	59¢	$22	0x92bec7…
06-06 20:01:43	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	271	96¢	$260	0x87db7c…
05-27 20:14:55	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0x940ef6…
05-27 20:10:43	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	71¢	$23	0x87cfd2…
05-27 20:10:07	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	60¢	$4	0x39f357…
05-27 20:07:34	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	45	17¢	$8	0x5ce459…
05-27 20:04:29	Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,074	1¢	$12	0xfeef9e…
05-26 22:02:48	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x0e84c0…
05-26 21:55:04	Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	2¢	$0	0x74982f…
05-26 21:49:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	9	14¢	$1	0x613793…
05-26 21:49:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	SELL	12	4¢	$1	0x8c2d20…
05-26 19:59:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	329	1¢	$3	0x7dc2d1…
05-26 19:58:16	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x369692…
05-24 12:40:07	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	73	88¢	$64	0xf56bd2…
05-24 12:39:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	64	81¢	$52	0xd3f84b…
05-23 13:09:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0x45d361…
05-23 13:09:15	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x3056b6…
05-23 13:08:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xa08e38…
05-23 13:07:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	83¢	$11	0xf49baf…
05-21 12:01:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x1f8e2e…
05-21 08:19:23	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	25	98¢	$25	0x588f97…
05-20 07:50:29	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	25	87¢	$22	0x4f914c…
05-19 09:49:14	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x5e5f53…
05-17 08:09:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x28b6c9…
05-17 08:09:17	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	31	93¢	$29	0x6b8b3d…
05-15 08:16:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xa57e70…
05-15 08:15:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xb005ed…
05-15 08:12:22	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	23	94¢	$22	0xeb36e4…
05-14 16:15:33	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	31	93¢	$29	0x6bd068…
05-14 10:53:14	Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xd20257…
05-14 10:53:04	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x3002ed…
05-13 20:01:23	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x2bcde8…
05-12 16:04:16	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x3dafdd…
05-12 14:38:57	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb63bdf…
05-12 14:36:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0xb42ded…
05-12 14:33:49	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0xf6f267…
05-11 16:04:17	Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x8e0670…
05-11 10:58:00	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xc3ad22…
05-11 10:57:00	Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x51e1c3…
05-11 10:56:53	Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xd623d4…
05-11 10:56:46	Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xb6b222…
05-11 10:56:32	Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x151755…
05-11 10:56:24	Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x3b12f2…
05-11 10:55:59	Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xb86864…
05-11 10:55:52	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xbebe2a…
05-11 10:55:40	Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x744b1f…
05-11 10:55:33	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0xb91c77…
05-11 10:55:24	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x2e03d5…
05-11 10:55:03	Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x8378d3…
05-11 10:54:56	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x3d07e7…
05-11 10:54:49	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x8c207a…
05-11 10:54:35	Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xbc8cc2…
05-11 10:54:26	Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xc9cccf…
05-11 10:53:43	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x5f6cf9…
05-11 10:53:20	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xc51086…
05-11 10:53:15	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x0d88f2…
05-11 10:52:57	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xb14c61…
05-11 10:50:27	Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x1fd965…
05-11 10:46:32	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x7b1256…
05-11 10:46:15	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x1f5647…
05-11 10:44:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	31	31¢	$10	0x6785c5…
05-11 10:43:55	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	22	95¢	$21	0x289aaf…
05-11 10:43:35	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	56	96¢	$53	0x280f2b…
05-08 07:11:31	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x75134e…
05-08 07:10:50	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xe0d681…
05-08 07:10:40	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x6b76ba…
05-07 17:12:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	24	66¢	$16	0x384c31…
05-07 17:11:46	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	62	74¢	$46	0x354459…
05-06 08:06:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xd41f21…
05-06 08:06:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x8ef5ad…
05-06 07:56:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	56	81¢	$45	0x5821b2…
05-06 07:55:52	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x6efa81…
05-06 07:54:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	SELL	211	93¢	$196	0x249d88…
05-05 06:06:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0x2aab36…
05-04 17:13:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x1f80b6…
05-02 13:31:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0x814a2e…
05-02 13:30:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	32	88¢	$28	0x99a16d…
04-28 07:53:04	Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?	No	BUY	339	99¢	$335	0x7cc5c8…
04-28 07:52:16	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	Yes	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x56ef23…
04-28 07:51:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x230027…
04-27 11:08:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x7ad73a…
04-27 10:53:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	32	98¢	$32	0x323a14…
04-27 10:53:08	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0x1c619d…
04-27 10:52:48	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0xae58b5…
04-27 10:52:32	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	60	99¢	$60	0x2417de…
04-27 10:52:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	42	99¢	$42	0xa0f4bf…
04-27 10:51:46	Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April?	No	SELL	125	80¢	$100	0xeadff5…
04-27 10:51:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	155	99¢	$153	0x199255…
04-24 12:07:16	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	155	97¢	$150	0x440433…
04-24 12:05:42	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	60	91¢	$55	0x169698…
04-24 07:46:56	Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xd1830f…
04-23 12:57:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	SELL	78	95¢	$74	0x6b1649…
04-23 12:57:22	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	SELL	32	94¢	$30	0x8bcd5a…
04-23 12:57:00	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	34	94¢	$32	0x02585f…
04-22 15:02:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	BUY	24	91¢	$22	0x83b073…
04-22 14:59:48	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	No	SELL	23	97¢	$22	0x238288…
04-21 20:42:30	Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April?	No	BUY	125	85¢	$107	0x65a27c…
04-21 20:36:56	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	No	BUY	52	76¢	$40	0xf8873c…
04-21 20:19:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	SELL	47	48¢	$22	0x77c3ab…