Phony-Capitulation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

87.5%

Resolved

Trades

1,594

lifetime

Volume

$6.34K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-22

last 06-10 18:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

50% — —

Sports

28% — —

Crypto

20% 88% +$20

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 181 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	21	$445	453	453	+0	open	—	05-27 15:34
bitcoin above 74k on april 16	7	$154	211	201	+10	open	—	04-16 14:06
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	12	$91	105	135	-30	open	—	04-14 13:08
bitcoin above 76k on april 18	3	$87	180	168	+12	open	—	04-18 11:27
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	10	$52	67	67	+0	open	—	04-14 13:08
bitcoin above 76k on april 19	3	$42	62	59	+4	open	—	04-19 13:24
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	2	$37	50	50	+0	open	—	04-26 23:50
nba atl orl 2026 04 01	7	$35	66	0	+66	open	—	04-01 21:37
bitcoin above 74k on april 14	5	$33	141	62	+80	open	—	04-14 15:16
will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	10	$32	43	15	+27	open	—	04-12 18:08
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	2	$27	50	50	+0	open	—	04-26 23:51
bitcoin above 66k on april 2	8	$25	50	0	+50	open	—	04-02 12:50
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	5	$24	35	18	+18	open	—	04-13 03:40
ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 fcb1	7	$22	30	21	+9	open	—	04-14 20:37
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	5	$21	44	0	+44	open	—	04-10 09:52
atp shevche agut 2026 04 05	6	$20	57	0	+57	open	—	04-05 13:25
mlb kc cle 2026 04 07 total 6pt5	6	$20	54	0	+54	open	—	04-07 18:12
nba lal okc 2026 04 02 spread home 9pt5	4	$20	40	0	+40	open	—	04-03 01:20
nba hou gsw 2026 04 05	4	$20	42	0	+42	open	—	04-05 22:08
nba lal okc 2026 04 02 spread home 8pt5	5	$20	40	0	+40	open	—	04-02 23:49
nba sas lac 2026 04 02 spread away 3pt5	5	$20	42	0	+42	open	—	04-02 21:23
lol tes ig1 2026 04 04	5	$20	42	0	+42	open	—	04-04 07:14
nba det phi 2026 04 04	4	$20	44	0	+44	open	—	04-04 21:22
lol t1 hle1 2026 04 04	4	$20	41	0	+41	open	—	04-04 07:59
nba hou phx 2026 04 07	7	$20	40	0	+40	open	—	04-07 23:40
wta udvardy arango 2026 04 04	5	$20	50	0	+50	open	—	04-04 19:39
atp altmaie prizmic 2026 04 02	5	$20	55	0	+55	open	—	04-03 11:27
wta pegula putints 2026 04 01	4	$20	54	0	+54	open	—	04-01 19:31
cricipl luc del 2026 04 01	12	$19	59	0	+59	open	—	04-01 16:39
wta pegula cocciar 2026 04 02	5	$19	46	0	+46	open	—	04-02 18:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 18:53:13	doge updown 5m 1781117400	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xff5566…
06-10 11:38:13	btc updown 5m 1781091300	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x0a77f4…
06-10 00:53:13	sol updown 5m 1781052600	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xee9844…
06-08 17:08:12	eth updown 5m 1780938300	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x3b1d70…
06-08 13:48:12	btc updown 5m 1780926300	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x88fcfc…
06-08 01:48:10	eth updown 5m 1780883100	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x826f65…
06-07 14:28:10	sol updown 5m 1780842300	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xfa874a…
06-07 12:23:10	sol updown 5m 1780834800	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x8df392…
06-07 01:23:10	eth updown 5m 1780795200	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xee9acd…
06-07 01:23:09	xrp updown 5m 1780795200	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xf06a3c…
06-07 00:48:39	sol updown 5m 1780793100	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x4974b6…
06-06 18:38:07	eth updown 5m 1780770900	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x9b5757…
06-06 15:08:10	bnb updown 5m 1780758300	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xd30dea…
06-06 15:08:09	sol updown 5m 1780758300	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x5a464a…
06-06 14:08:22	bnb updown 5m 1780754700	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x46919c…
06-06 13:28:07	doge updown 5m 1780752300	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x54fb82…
06-06 11:38:22	xrp updown 5m 1780745700	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x1de526…
06-06 07:13:09	sol updown 5m 1780729800	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xe00f1f…
06-06 06:53:09	eth updown 5m 1780728600	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x06e1c0…
06-06 04:38:09	xrp updown 5m 1780720500	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x91a2de…
06-06 03:53:09	bnb updown 5m 1780717800	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x504194…
06-06 03:08:09	xrp updown 5m 1780715100	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x7d1736…
06-06 03:03:09	xrp updown 5m 1780714800	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x9e632c…
06-06 02:08:09	eth updown 5m 1780711500	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x03045e…
06-05 22:13:09	xrp updown 5m 1780697400	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x4e41ca…
06-05 20:53:10	doge updown 5m 1780692600	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x65f7af…
06-05 20:53:07	sol updown 5m 1780692600	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x5dda08…
06-05 20:43:07	bnb updown 5m 1780692000	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x18697f…
06-05 18:18:07	eth updown 5m 1780683300	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xacd37d…
06-05 08:58:06	bnb updown 5m 1780649700	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x578b63…
06-05 06:53:07	xrp updown 5m 1780642200	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xdcaba0…
06-05 06:43:09	doge updown 5m 1780641600	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x2e4f49…
06-05 06:38:07	bnb updown 5m 1780641300	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xdcd4a7…
06-05 01:13:07	doge updown 5m 1780621800	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x36a1ee…
06-04 12:28:07	btc updown 5m 1780575900	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x1c2dcb…
06-04 10:53:07	btc updown 5m 1780570200	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xb0488f…
06-04 09:28:06	doge updown 5m 1780565100	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xecc130…
06-04 05:13:06	eth updown 5m 1780549800	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xf4aafe…
06-04 01:43:34	bnb updown 5m 1780537200	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x79bc38…
06-02 20:53:19	Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x3f1edb…
06-02 19:58:17	Solana Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x314007…
06-01 15:43:16	BNB Up or Down - June 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xb2c34f…
06-01 14:33:16	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x77f310…
06-01 10:53:15	Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x153905…
05-31 17:48:15	BNB Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x79df25…
05-30 06:58:14	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xea77a7…
05-28 16:08:13	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x2ed7b5…
05-28 15:53:12	XRP Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x650ead…
05-28 13:58:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x4e0aca…
05-28 12:43:12	BNB Up or Down - May 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x24ffd1…
05-27 18:33:11	bnb updown 5m 1779906600	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xab8fe6…
05-27 15:34:24	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Down	SELL	203	51¢	$104	0x77e05a…
05-27 15:34:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Up	SELL	250	46¢	$115	0xbd9bad…
05-27 14:22:02	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x4b96d2…
05-27 14:21:59	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Up	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x56cf3a…
05-27 14:07:57	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Up	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0xc632d7…
05-27 14:01:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Down	BUY	19	44¢	$8	0x8f2962…
05-27 14:01:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Down	BUY	31	44¢	$14	0x2ce240…
05-27 13:54:28	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Up	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0xd35cad…
05-27 13:54:28	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Up	BUY	38	50¢	$19	0x90feef…
05-27 13:54:25	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Down	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0xbf87ca…
05-27 13:54:14	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Down	BUY	38	49¢	$18	0x2a74a8…
05-27 13:47:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Up	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x547558…
05-27 13:33:46	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Up	BUY	12	57¢	$7	0xb9f7ee…
05-27 13:33:46	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xb71cda…
05-27 13:33:41	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Up	BUY	27	57¢	$16	0xcb0bd2…
05-27 13:33:27	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xe6d42f…
05-27 13:33:27	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Down	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0xc8f878…
05-27 13:33:27	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x24e283…
05-27 13:33:27	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x1b424d…
05-27 13:33:27	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x0e9eb6…
05-27 13:26:49	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	Down	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x084202…
05-26 22:43:17	BNB Up or Down - May 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x5611a7…
05-26 15:08:16	XRP Up or Down - May 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x223ed8…
05-26 03:38:16	Solana Up or Down - May 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xfc612c…
05-25 04:33:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xd0c081…
05-24 22:54:54	Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	SELL	9	46¢	$4	0xecab46…
05-24 21:06:33	Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xc024a9…
05-23 23:48:22	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds	St. Louis Cardinals	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x291d0a…
05-23 21:18:08	Solana Up or Down - May 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x962e58…
05-23 01:08:11	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xd6544f…
05-22 19:48:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x310ca6…
05-22 14:13:04	XRP Up or Down - May 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x5d2e8b…
05-20 17:38:17	Solana Up or Down - May 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x37525e…
05-19 14:53:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x3927e8…
05-19 02:38:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xd720b2…
05-17 01:38:11	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x4eaf34…
05-15 08:33:06	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x8f3a18…
05-14 17:23:05	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xcf9239…
05-11 01:33:15	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xa3dd86…
05-10 16:13:15	Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x654a28…
05-07 15:24:18	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x3ccfe7…
05-07 10:04:17	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xd4679e…
05-07 08:24:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xb99e17…
05-05 13:59:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x8b0932…
05-04 22:59:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x1b59bf…
05-04 22:59:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x3a6bf8…
05-04 19:14:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xd589fe…
05-04 15:54:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x13d995…
05-04 07:49:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x81a62b…