Grumpy-Modification — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$35

Unrealized P&L

-$10

Hit rate

84.8%

Resolved

Trades

317

lifetime

Volume

$29.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$94

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-21

last 10-14 02:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 26 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 76% -$319

Other

6% 100% +$284

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes		+17	$11	2¢	$0	-$10	08-22 08:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	15	$2.7K	1,531	1,531	+0	Yes	+$301	04-01 00:04
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?	29	$2.4K	1,244	1,232	+12	Yes	+$105	03-31 10:02
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?	16	$2.2K	1,724	730	+993	Yes	+$34	04-12 03:13
Mezo FDV above $50M one day after launch?	4	$1.9K	1,005	1,005	+0	Yes	+$98	04-02 16:39
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$1.5K	1,636	0	+1,636	Yes	+$98	04-01 05:21
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	3	$1.2K	1,100	200	+900	Yes	+$34	03-05 02:51
Bitway FDV above $200M one day after launch?	4	$1.1K	1,081	0	+1,081	No	+$14	03-02 07:49
Perle Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch?	3	$1.1K	1,131	0	+1,131	Yes	+$77	03-25 09:21
Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$980	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$20	03-17 10:23
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	11	$912	1,100	1,096	+4	Yes	-$121	03-24 20:01
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?	7	$710	400	400	+0	Yes	+$70	02-24 07:25
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?	3	$699	358	358	+0	Yes	+$6	04-08 08:27
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$684	700	0	+700	No	+$16	03-20 09:57
OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$613	738	0	+738	No	-$613	04-09 08:01
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch?	12	$575	596	596	+0	Yes	-$215	03-03 22:38
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	6	$529	328	328	+0	No	-$89	05-29 06:04
XMAQUINA FDV above $60M one day after launch?	17	$526	453	453	+0	No	-$306	05-28 05:44
Flying Tulip FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	2	$525	546	0	+546	No	+$21	02-24 14:36
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?	3	$514	530	0	+530	Yes	+$16	05-04 08:20
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	13	$512	649	200	+449	Yes	+$257	08-18 11:57
Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$506	533	0	+533	Yes	+$27	04-27 02:14
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	1	$465	500	0	+500	Yes	+$35	04-29 09:32
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	5	$412	441	0	+441	Yes	+$29	05-20 08:36
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027?	5	$361	220	220	+0	open	—	08-14 19:16
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch	3	$332	400	100	+300	No	+$8	06-04 12:53
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?	5	$314	300	400	-100	Yes	-$54	02-24 12:32
Will Beezie launch a token by December 31, 2026?	6	$302	540	0	+540	open	—	08-25 12:07
Will Beezie launch a token by June 30, 2027?	4	$284	362	0	+362	open	—	08-24 16:12
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?	4	$272	300	0	+300	No	+$28	03-05 02:53
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$270	300	0	+300	No	+$30	02-27 09:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 02:55:01	Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	34	0¢	$0	0x39d389…
10-14 02:54:53	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	336	3¢	$11	0xcc3279…
08-25 12:07:42	Will Beezie launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	40¢	$16	0xb637bd…
08-25 05:51:12	Will Beezie launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x2b719b…
08-25 02:47:24	Will Beezie launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0xbb3fce…
08-24 18:40:03	Will StripChain launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	51¢	$29	0x1b669c…
08-24 18:30:54	Will StripChain launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	51¢	$22	0x3ec00b…
08-24 16:12:58	Will Beezie launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0xc8c80f…
08-24 16:12:51	Will Beezie launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x72e250…
08-23 22:39:21	Will Beezie launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0xf80a54…
08-23 22:38:54	Beezie FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0xc34664…
08-23 16:41:57	Beezie FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	28	18¢	$5	0xc5108d…
08-22 18:12:25	APYX FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	32	92¢	$29	0x1697f9…
08-22 15:06:36	APYX FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0xa4f26e…
08-22 08:59:55	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	11	80¢	$9	0xbcd40a…
08-22 07:26:40	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x8af7f1…
08-20 08:04:51	will flop launch a token by september 30 2027	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x7bb503…
08-18 13:52:34	APYX FDV above $80M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	44	77¢	$34	0xa6fe21…
08-18 11:57:16	Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	30¢	$15	0xfd2b5e…
08-18 08:04:31	APYX FDV above $80M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x371ca2…
08-18 06:42:09	will beezie launch a token by june 30 2027 20260727145435058	Yes	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0x243a0a…
08-14 19:16:06	Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	220	82¢	$180	0x0a4352…
08-13 01:43:25	beezie fdv above 300m one day after launch 20260804180933889	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x8c3400…
08-13 01:43:24	beezie fdv above 300m one day after launch 20260804180933889	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0xadb366…
08-11 11:15:09	beezie fdv above 50m one day after launch 20260804180933884	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xbc76ff…
08-11 11:09:25	will beezie launch a token by june 30 2027 20260727145435058	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x55e1d9…
08-11 11:09:07	will beezie launch a token by december 31 2026 20260727145732885	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x22545d…
08-11 07:51:34	saturn fdv above 50m one day after launch 20260623191424367	Yes	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0x44c1af…
08-10 19:21:40	beezie fdv above 150m one day after launch 20260804180933886	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x0db2f0…
08-10 09:26:42	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	36	33¢	$12	0xaf4182…
08-10 08:01:55	APYX FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	64	82¢	$53	0xf24d6b…
08-10 08:01:55	APYX FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	34	82¢	$28	0xd19624…
08-10 08:01:55	APYX FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x6079e0…
08-07 15:12:21	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x88665a…
08-06 23:21:35	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0xc2c477…
08-06 01:35:39	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	71¢	$71	0x0810d8…
08-04 15:28:56	squid fdv above 75m one day after launch 994	Yes	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xf8d554…
08-04 15:19:36	squid fdv above 75m one day after launch 994	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xa2e499…
08-03 08:10:53	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0x24338f…
08-03 08:02:14	will squid launch a token by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0xece3af…
08-02 07:45:39	Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0xfa7ff4…
07-31 11:24:57	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x97cd83…
07-15 17:33:11	will squid launch a token by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	67	70¢	$47	0x29e62f…
07-15 17:32:52	will squid launch a token by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xce99e3…
07-15 17:32:41	will squid launch a token by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xe433b8…
07-14 18:37:13	will squid launch a token by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0xaa7eed…
07-06 20:20:52	Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	23	29¢	$7	0x5beb90…
07-04 12:47:55	Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0xc4fbc7…
07-04 12:46:34	Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x4d4298…
07-04 12:19:52	Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x218a34…
07-02 10:56:50	Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x4deb09…
07-02 08:35:46	Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x925471…
07-02 08:34:17	Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x6cefac…
06-30 02:50:05	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	23	64¢	$15	0x807232…
06-29 23:18:50	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x010991…
06-29 17:38:11	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x5a6346…
06-29 15:46:17	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x172810…
06-29 14:30:59	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	13	64¢	$8	0xf3bf84…
06-29 13:53:16	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x2c1897…
06-29 12:48:43	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	9	64¢	$5	0x0dbd50…
06-24 13:14:10	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	42	87¢	$37	0xc72347…
06-20 10:30:32	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	52	87¢	$45	0x6f0205…
06-19 13:54:05	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x641af0…
06-19 12:25:25	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	28	87¢	$25	0x8c6b81…
06-18 02:02:38	o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	124	98¢	$122	0x5d9d4e…
06-18 01:20:01	o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xfd35a6…
06-14 01:26:01	Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0x010c25…
06-08 17:30:21	Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0x605f42…
06-06 04:24:43	Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	60¢	$31	0xaf6ba6…
06-06 03:05:15	Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x572de9…
06-06 01:30:09	Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x3ccb53…
06-06 00:27:39	Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x4c0467…
06-05 18:15:57	Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x6da37e…
06-05 17:18:06	Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	60¢	$21	0xfc5314…
06-05 17:18:06	Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x7038e8…
06-05 13:47:46	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	56	41¢	$23	0xf4e5b6…
06-04 22:37:27	Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0x105d5f…
06-04 18:07:33	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	175	73¢	$128	0x5dc9a6…
06-04 12:53:10	tea fdv above 80m one day after launch	No	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0x03f95f…
06-04 08:29:18	o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x715aa9…
06-04 07:02:58	Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	80¢	$160	0x6bf0d1…
06-03 15:23:07	Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch	Yes	SELL	200	48¢	$96	0xd78145…
06-03 04:52:42	Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch	Yes	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0x794429…
06-02 16:12:02	Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x0c940e…
06-02 12:37:03	Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	78	46¢	$36	0xf1f7ab…
06-02 12:08:30	Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	22	49¢	$11	0xad9b89…
06-02 09:23:35	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	14	41¢	$6	0x5e4131…
06-01 22:47:56	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	41¢	$12	0x0ceb74…
06-01 21:30:07	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x327d67…
06-01 16:04:35	Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	34	49¢	$17	0x916f3f…
06-01 10:33:55	Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xcfa7f9…
06-01 08:27:22	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	25	73¢	$18	0x779ff2…
05-31 08:23:00	Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x0a239b…
05-31 07:07:08	Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	65¢	$55	0xfdf36d…
05-31 07:05:20	Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xbdad09…
05-29 13:47:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	85	29¢	$25	0x110cfe…
05-29 13:47:30	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	120	29¢	$35	0x85212f…
05-29 06:04:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	49	67¢	$33	0xc20daf…
05-29 06:04:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	236	67¢	$158	0xa4f93a…
05-29 06:04:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0xd5f45a…