Fancy-Verdict — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$222

Unrealized P&L

-$33

Hit rate

55.3%

Resolved

258

Trades

505

lifetime

Volume

$23.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$46

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-24

last 11-05 22:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 46 days

Categories

Crypto

63% 49% -$175

Politics

27% 18% +$102

Other

9% 31% -$148

Sports

0% 25% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No		+131	$34	1¢	$1	-$33	11-05 22:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	6	$1.6K	2,234	1,234	+1,000	Yes	-$3	03-08 21:22
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$1.4K	1,192	1,192	+0	Yes	+$956	02-28 08:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 16:40 UTC	6	$847	786	775	+12	Down	-$58	03-03 16:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 06:15 UTC	5	$592	410	295	+115	Down	-$7	03-10 06:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 16:45 UTC	4	$565	417	412	+5	Up	+$48	03-03 16:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 22:35 UTC	2	$506	351	346	+5	Down	+$120	03-03 22:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 16:25 UTC	4	$454	268	267	+1	Down	-$14	03-03 16:30
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	3	$398	299	299	+0	No	-$2	03-04 21:43
will bahrain strike iran by march 31	3	$348	301	301	+0	No	-$152	03-13 22:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 23:05 UTC	4	$305	214	212	+3	Up	+$27	03-03 23:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 14:20 UTC	2	$299	204	201	+3	Up	+$102	03-05 14:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 16:45 UTC	4	$280	302	200	+102	Down	+$22	03-02 16:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 17:05 UTC	2	$277	182	179	+3	Down	+$80	03-02 17:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 15:10 UTC	5	$248	178	176	+3	Down	+$49	03-04 15:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 06:30 UTC	5	$239	216	213	+3	Down	+$41	03-10 06:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 16:20 UTC	2	$234	137	136	+1	Up	+$36	03-02 16:25
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	4	$222	347	347	+0	Yes	+$2	02-28 21:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 14:50 UTC	7	$217	1,321	207	+1,114	Up	-$21	03-04 14:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 12:15 UTC	2	$212	140	138	+2	Up	+$36	03-10 12:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 09:35 UTC	3	$208	251	120	+130	Down	-$92	03-02 09:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 09:05 UTC	4	$183	141	139	+2	Up	+$45	03-02 09:10
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	2	$183	192	192	+0	Yes	+$133	02-28 06:54
epl mac not 2026 03 04 mac	1	$180	261	0	+261	No	-$180	03-04 18:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 09:20 UTC	4	$172	207	204	+2	Up	+$34	03-10 09:23
lal cel rea 2026 03 07 rea	2	$169	119	119	+0	Yes	+$69	03-06 22:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 11:55 UTC	3	$164	174	113	+61	Down	+$6	03-10 11:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 23:50 UTC	2	$156	96	95	+1	Down	+$17	03-03 23:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 09:15 UTC	2	$154	106	105	+2	Up	+$55	03-02 09:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 08:55 UTC	4	$154	117	115	+2	Up	+$35	03-02 09:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 12:05 UTC	2	$152	116	114	+2	Down	+$49	03-10 12:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 22:06:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	131	26¢	$34	0xa30fb7…
11-05 22:05:55	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0xb1927f…
11-05 22:05:16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	No	BUY	1,224	3¢	$40	0x15be94…
11-05 20:03:49	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	572	6¢	$34	0xf5a283…
11-05 05:10:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	BUY	201	1¢	$2	0x3bfd7e…
08-01 14:58:51	Will Fredrikstad FK vs. Sandefjord Fotball end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x4592ea…
08-01 14:57:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 14:55 UTC	Down	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x512dda…
08-01 14:56:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	295	12¢	$35	0x5f3e23…
08-01 14:55:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	SELL	417	11¢	$46	0xce403b…
08-01 14:44:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 14:40 UTC	Down	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0x294ccf…
08-01 14:41:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 14:40 UTC	Down	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0x98e157…
08-01 14:36:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	417	13¢	$53	0x223950…
07-24 18:44:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	142	19¢	$27	0x4452b6…
07-24 18:44:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	No	SELL	859	2¢	$19	0x01c34a…
07-24 15:57:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	No	BUY	441	2¢	$10	0x1ef881…
07-24 15:57:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	BUY	250	16¢	$40	0xa9d7fe…
07-24 15:57:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	308	13¢	$40	0x30dcf9…
07-24 15:57:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	BUY	156	16¢	$25	0xb254fb…
07-24 15:56:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	494	12¢	$60	0xdf346f…
07-24 15:56:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	No	BUY	419	2¢	$10	0x0764da…
07-12 01:36:17	Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x7e7b20…
07-12 00:33:04	Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x02cbc3…
07-12 00:32:50	Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x35d060…
06-16 01:16:57	Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0xae75e6…
05-24 03:55:27	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	128	2¢	$3	0xcd5d65…
05-24 03:55:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x53cae1…
05-24 03:54:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xad7eb3…
05-22 22:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x3027d4…
05-22 22:04:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0x797e7b…
05-22 22:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xb51802…
05-22 21:57:14	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	128	39¢	$50	0x977b9b…
05-22 21:56:58	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	429	12¢	$50	0xb2e5f5…
05-22 21:56:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	No	SELL	700	0¢	$1	0xae0f85…
05-20 12:42:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0xb8c9ec…
05-20 12:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	SELL	31	99¢	$30	0x089dc0…
05-20 12:35:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xddc84c…
05-20 12:35:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x36f794…
05-20 12:35:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x78ba05…
05-20 12:32:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x7dc318…
05-20 12:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x93f1d3…
05-20 12:03:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	176	2¢	$4	0xededcb…
05-20 12:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	26	98¢	$25	0xb14e39…
05-20 12:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0xf141aa…
05-20 12:00:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x53aa91…
05-20 11:57:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xa7b666…
05-20 11:56:52	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	429	21¢	$90	0x193c04…
05-20 11:56:45	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	No	BUY	700	10¢	$70	0xe3737e…
04-22 19:26:50	lal rso get 2026 04 22 draw	Yes	BUY	27	30¢	$8	0x4a5a32…
04-22 19:15:00	epl bur mac 2026 04 22 total 4pt5	Over	BUY	76	39¢	$30	0x8b36ab…
04-22 18:48:12	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	344	0¢	$0	0x904d42…
04-19 11:40:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 11:40 UTC	Down	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x36b8f8…
04-19 11:39:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 11:35 UTC	Down	SELL	115	1¢	$1	0x98aff6…
04-19 11:36:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 11:35 UTC	Down	BUY	121	33¢	$40	0x2eceb2…
04-19 11:32:50	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	344	14¢	$48	0x054a89…
03-28 08:01:17	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	169	30¢	$51	0x705097…
03-27 10:43:17	will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	Yes	SELL	74	67¢	$50	0xf292fc…
03-24 05:07:47	will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	Yes	BUY	74	34¢	$25	0x45462a…
03-24 05:07:07	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	SELL	215	12¢	$26	0xdac801…
03-23 14:55:25	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	215	23¢	$50	0x315bcd…
03-23 14:55:09	will israel strike 3 countries in march 2026	Yes	SELL	73	63¢	$46	0x13dc56…
03-21 21:42:31	epl lee bre 2026 03 21 bre	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x66be21…
03-19 22:20:21	will israel strike 2 countries in march 2026	Yes	SELL	53	26¢	$14	0x9036b9…
03-14 21:27:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 21:25 UTC	Down	BUY	84	28¢	$23	0x06c4e6…
03-14 21:24:09	bl2 ber boc 2026 03 14 boc	Yes	BUY	102	5¢	$5	0x2812f7…
03-14 21:22:39	epl wes mac 2026 03 14 mac	Yes	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0x6bb9cc…
03-14 21:21:41	epl ars eve 2026 03 14 ars	Yes	SELL	54	100¢	$53	0x8ab8f8…
03-14 17:02:01	epl ars eve 2026 03 14 ars	Yes	BUY	54	71¢	$38	0xc8387d…
03-14 17:01:39	epl che new 2026 03 14 draw	Yes	BUY	88	23¢	$20	0x2276fe…
03-14 16:49:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 16:45 UTC	Up	SELL	85	69¢	$59	0x569df4…
03-14 16:47:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	86	43¢	$37	0x2205ea…
03-13 22:30:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 22:30 UTC	Up	BUY	38	58¢	$22	0x78a54a…
03-13 22:30:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 22:25 UTC	Up	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x996c84…
03-13 22:25:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 22:25 UTC	Up	BUY	23	54¢	$12	0x9262b8…
03-13 22:22:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 22:20 UTC	Up	SELL	213	2¢	$4	0xd3e3e6…
03-13 22:20:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 22:20 UTC	Up	BUY	122	33¢	$40	0xf07b31…
03-13 22:20:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 22:20 UTC	Up	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x8f526e…
03-13 22:19:33	will bahrain strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	151	32¢	$48	0x1878a2…
03-13 22:19:03	will bahrain strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	151	33¢	$50	0xaded09…
03-13 22:15:09	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x6a8b92…
03-13 22:07:01	will bahrain strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	301	83¢	$250	0x9eb804…
03-13 22:06:21	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	48	25¢	$12	0xde9f21…
03-13 22:05:57	houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	Yes	SELL	99	6¢	$6	0x23a929…
03-13 22:05:49	will iran strike cyprus in march	Yes	SELL	42	3¢	$1	0x83cd28…
03-13 22:05:45	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 15	Yes	SELL	304	0¢	$1	0x2080cd…
03-13 03:01:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 03:00 UTC	Up	BUY	42	65¢	$27	0xaf2767…
03-13 01:07:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 01:05 UTC	Up	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x96f16b…
03-13 01:07:21	Iran leadership change by March 13?	Yes	SELL	167	2¢	$2	0xcfa37c…
03-12 02:02:21	houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	Yes	BUY	99	20¢	$20	0x4034e3…
03-11 20:05:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	70	43¢	$30	0x1f9f54…
03-11 10:25:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 10:25 UTC	Up	BUY	97	31¢	$30	0x222b2c…
03-11 10:24:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 10:20 UTC	Up	SELL	26	21¢	$5	0xaa2f0d…
03-11 10:22:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 10:20 UTC	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x16526e…
03-10 23:00:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 22:55 UTC	Down	SELL	49	99¢	$49	0x2985c6…
03-10 22:58:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 22:55 UTC	Down	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x98136d…
03-10 20:03:29	ucl new fcb1 2026 03 10 new	Yes	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x2b3878…
03-10 19:58:15	elc wre hul 2026 03 10 wre	Yes	BUY	89	45¢	$40	0x1d7f11…
03-10 14:26:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 14:25 UTC	Down	SELL	53	27¢	$14	0x315715…
03-10 14:25:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 14:25 UTC	Down	BUY	54	50¢	$27	0xbb689d…
03-10 14:23:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 14:20 UTC	Up	SELL	49	93¢	$46	0xd8b4d8…
03-10 14:20:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 14:20 UTC	Up	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x5f9fce…