Pessimistic-Confidence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$378

Unrealized P&L

+$108

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

118

lifetime

Volume

$56.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$481

Open exposure

$2.48K

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 11-08 14:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Crypto

58% 100% +$94

Other

21% 100% +$128

Politics

17% 100% +$116

Sports

4% 100% +$40

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No		+2,510	$2,359	98¢	$2.5K	+$108	09-02 08:26
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No		+16	$16	97¢	$16	+$0	11-08 14:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Pharos FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$4.1K	2,062	2,062	+0	Yes	+$2	04-29 19:17
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April?	2	$4.1K	2,063	2,060	+3	No	+$35	04-28 23:25
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	2	$4.0K	2,034	2,033	+1	No	+$10	04-26 14:29
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?	5	$4.0K	2,026	2,024	+2	No	+$16	04-20 21:45
iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	6	$4.0K	3,187	859	+2,328	No	+$86	07-31 20:25
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	22	$2.7K	1,981	703	+1,278	Yes	+$5	05-19 11:41
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$2.4K	2,510	0	+2,510	open	—	09-02 08:26
Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?	4	$2.3K	2,359	0	+2,359	No	+$24	08-25 18:42
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$2.2K	2,240	0	+2,240	No	+$40	07-02 10:23
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	8	$2.1K	1,120	1,039	+82	No	+$22	06-16 11:15
Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch?	3	$2.1K	2,061	0	+2,061	No	+$11	04-29 19:30
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$1.8K	1,806	0	+1,806	No	+$2	04-30 09:21
xrp above 1pt3 on august 6 2026	1	$1.8K	1,765	0	+1,765	No	+$2	08-06 06:48
khamenei of tweets march 31 april 7 2026 55 59	1	$1.5K	1,461	0	+1,461	No	+$1	04-06 20:50
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	1	$1.4K	1,385	0	+1,385	No	+$3	05-22 20:36
cz binance of tweets april 3 april 10 2026 80 99	1	$1.3K	1,332	0	+1,332	No	+$1	04-08 18:38
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	1	$1.2K	1,200	0	+1,200	No	+$1	05-22 15:58
will noble launch a token by june 30 2026	3	$1.2K	1,198	0	+1,198	No	+$27	06-23 22:28
starmer out by june 15 2026	1	$1.1K	1,123	0	+1,123	No	+$4	06-10 20:41
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	3	$1.0K	908	129	+779	No	+$6	06-23 22:27
cz binance of tweets april 7 april 14 2026 160 179	1	$1.0K	1,024	0	+1,024	No	+$1	04-11 11:18
cz binance of tweets april 7 april 14 2026 180 199	1	$978	979	0	+979	No	+$1	04-11 11:17
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	1	$858	859	0	+859	Yes	+$1	07-31 07:46
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	1	$795	796	0	+796	No	+$1	06-04 20:07
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	3	$702	760	0	+760	No	+$57	05-19 11:42
cz binance of tweets april 3 april 10 2026 160 179	1	$668	669	0	+669	No	+$1	04-07 20:57
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in August?	2	$580	292	292	+0	No	+$4	08-25 18:40
khamenei of tweets march 31 april 7 2026 50 54	1	$536	537	0	+537	No	+$1	04-06 20:49
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	1	$428	429	0	+429	No	+$0	08-07 08:22
Will CZ post 200+ posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	1	$400	400	0	+400	No	+$0	05-02 08:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-08 14:09:10	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0xd8b84c…
10-24 14:00:59	Will CZ post 60-79 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x5f669c…
09-27 11:30:48	Ethos FDV above $12M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x7a2bf4…
09-02 08:26:13	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,510	94¢	$2,359	0x784314…
08-25 18:42:15	Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	313	100¢	$312	0xb5c8ab…
08-25 18:40:54	Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in August?	No	SELL	292	100¢	$292	0xb41e84…
08-25 18:40:46	Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in August?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x40edca…
08-12 12:45:48	will ethereum dip to 1200 in august 2026	No	BUY	292	99¢	$288	0x9ddb20…
08-11 13:42:03	will ethereum dip to 1300 in august 2026	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xd6dd7d…
08-07 21:43:06	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	1,725	99¢	$1,706	0x2fb9db…
08-07 21:17:54	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xadace9…
08-07 08:22:28	Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	429	100¢	$428	0x06c07d…
08-07 08:18:16	Will CZ post 120-139 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x5fb2fa…
08-06 06:53:20	Will CZ post 160-179 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	235	100¢	$235	0x4b8d96…
08-06 06:49:06	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	271	99¢	$268	0x287068…
08-06 06:48:39	xrp above 1pt3 on august 6 2026	No	BUY	1,765	100¢	$1,763	0x2c9795…
08-06 06:46:23	ethereum above 1500 on august 7 2026	Yes	BUY	63	100¢	$63	0x4c92e9…
07-31 20:25:39	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	859	100¢	$858	0xbb62e4…
07-31 07:46:06	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	859	100¢	$858	0x9559a7…
07-31 06:59:12	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	127	100¢	$127	0x4070aa…
07-31 06:58:17	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	732	100¢	$732	0xb0bd8c…
07-15 11:06:49	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	2,260	96¢	$2,176	0x7fcdab…
07-15 11:06:22	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x5c91af…
07-15 11:06:17	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	18	96¢	$18	0x8a4856…
07-02 10:23:40	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2,240	98¢	$2,200	0x769e36…
06-23 22:28:31	will noble launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	130	98¢	$128	0xc1ff74…
06-23 22:27:43	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	129	100¢	$128	0x28f570…
06-17 11:35:58	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	408	99¢	$405	0xe8a71e…
06-16 11:20:18	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$496	0x9acaa3…
06-16 11:17:15	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0x0893b3…
06-16 11:15:45	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	82	99¢	$81	0x4ff986…
06-16 11:14:19	Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	143	99¢	$141	0x72e09e…
06-10 20:41:19	starmer out by june 15 2026	No	BUY	1,123	100¢	$1,119	0xaa1b40…
06-10 06:59:10	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	1,039	98¢	$1,018	0xfec090…
06-08 20:21:58	will noble launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	495	98¢	$484	0x7275f4…
06-08 20:21:52	will noble launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	573	98¢	$559	0xb6053a…
06-08 20:18:21	Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0x846d3b…
06-04 20:07:49	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	796	100¢	$795	0xd20b64…
06-04 20:05:21	Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x3abe6f…
06-04 20:05:00	Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0x5aac56…
06-04 14:55:27	Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x866eee…
06-04 14:55:22	Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xc5e89f…
06-04 14:55:15	Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x38cd58…
06-04 14:55:06	Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x24b94d…
06-04 14:52:36	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	650	96¢	$625	0x68bc8a…
06-04 14:52:31	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	210	96¢	$202	0xb08734…
06-04 14:52:27	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	146	96¢	$140	0x947958…
06-04 14:52:22	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0x14e130…
06-04 14:52:15	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0x070e29…
06-04 14:52:09	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xa36db3…
05-22 20:36:02	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	1,385	100¢	$1,382	0xa58bc4…
05-22 15:58:53	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	1,200	100¢	$1,199	0xb23f53…
05-22 15:43:12	Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	36	99¢	$36	0x3487f1…
05-22 15:42:54	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xe4b197…
05-22 15:41:43	Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaa9a8a…
05-22 15:41:13	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x2f2119…
05-22 15:41:04	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x6f7ce6…
05-20 10:19:56	Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0x306c45…
05-19 11:42:23	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	545	92¢	$504	0xcc29e8…
05-19 11:41:56	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	205	92¢	$189	0x9f916d…
05-19 11:41:53	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x0034b4…
05-19 11:41:18	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	703	100¢	$700	0x1ab8e2…
05-19 11:35:44	Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	76	95¢	$72	0x0acf84…
05-19 11:35:23	Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	25	94¢	$23	0x58c7a1…
05-08 20:09:10	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	439	100¢	$439	0x2fe549…
05-07 13:24:46	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x2579de…
05-07 13:24:22	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	247	99¢	$246	0xe16e7a…
05-07 13:23:59	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x1a1477…
05-06 06:27:30	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	643	100¢	$641	0x89d67f…
05-06 05:34:04	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd3acf3…
05-06 05:32:06	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd2d1ed…
05-06 05:29:56	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2dbb2c…
05-06 05:28:12	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8c3c58…
05-06 05:25:24	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x617d31…
05-06 05:23:44	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x2c8a0c…
05-05 22:20:40	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	117	100¢	$117	0x23c4a1…
05-05 22:16:10	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0xb9151c…
05-05 22:16:06	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	127	100¢	$126	0xd7ee7a…
05-05 22:16:02	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x1bef8c…
05-05 22:15:28	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0x6b389f…
05-05 22:15:20	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0x7dfa06…
05-05 22:15:14	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x7d7e68…
05-05 22:15:08	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x450134…
05-05 22:15:04	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x9f7fad…
05-05 22:14:56	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x5af6df…
05-05 22:07:32	Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x25d5f2…
05-05 22:07:26	Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x672b87…
05-05 22:06:32	Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf54c1f…
05-05 22:05:58	Will CZ post 100-119 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	350	100¢	$350	0x7dcbdc…
05-05 22:05:54	Will CZ post 100-119 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0xa3e155…
05-05 22:05:36	Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x46ed77…
05-04 11:41:00	Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	273	100¢	$273	0x0371b2…
05-02 08:49:20	Will CZ post 120-139 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	400	100¢	$400	0x4bb1d9…
05-02 08:49:14	Will CZ post 140-159 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0x4b9b59…
05-02 08:49:08	Will CZ post 160-179 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0x5b3feb…
05-02 08:49:02	Will CZ post 180-199 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	400	100¢	$400	0x446f02…
05-02 08:48:54	Will CZ post 200+ posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	400	100¢	$400	0x232546…
04-30 09:21:10	Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,806	100¢	$1,804	0xb1e70f…
04-29 19:30:34	Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,915	100¢	$1,905	0x5cc8a7…
04-29 19:30:26	Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	46	99¢	$46	0xd1be76…