Shabby-Potato — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$422

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

53.0%

Resolved

878

Trades

1,820

lifetime

Volume

$7.32K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-06

last 10-25 23:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Other

47% 32% +$19

Crypto

42% 26% -$405

Politics

11% 71% -$36

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	29	$592	335	335	+0	Yes	+$3	03-30 17:39
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	20	$586	634	634	-0	No	-$58	10-25 23:16
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	26	$399	382	399	-18	No	+$19	03-12 10:13
will crude oil cl settle at 90 in march	21	$279	240	206	+33	Yes	+$27	03-26 18:08
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	18	$264	216	186	+30	Yes	+$8	06-17 21:52
will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	3	$199	200	0	+200	Yes	+$1	03-27 18:19
BNB Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-03 21:30 UTC	3	$163	100	100	+0	Up	-$21	04-03 21:42
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	9	$162	195	195	+0	Yes	+$27	06-26 12:59
will the bank of brazil decrease the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	39	$162	193	180	+12	Yes	+$6	03-18 21:15
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	5	$138	75	75	+0	Yes	-$1	04-24 14:26
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-03 21:30 UTC	6	$126	90	90	+0	Up	+$5	04-03 21:42
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	9	$112	130	130	+0	No	+$8	06-12 12:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 21:35 UTC	1	$99	100	0	+100	Up	+$1	04-04 21:39
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	11	$89	90	90	+0	Yes	+$1	04-04 02:12
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	6	$86	210	210	+0	Yes	+$3	10-15 21:34
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$80	50	50	+0	Yes	+$0	06-26 13:20
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 21:35 UTC	1	$77	94	0	+94	Down	-$77	04-03 21:37
HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-03 21:30 UTC	8	$75	77	77	+0	Down	-$15	04-03 21:42
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by march 20	8	$68	60	60	+0	No	+$8	03-18 20:39
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	5	$63	40	40	+0	No	-$1	03-17 18:26
sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	3	$61	40	40	+0	No	+$3	03-12 19:56
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-03 21:30 UTC	9	$50	171	165	+6	Down	-$40	04-03 21:42
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	1	$48	54	0	+54	Yes	-$48	09-28 21:41
DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 21:35 UTC	11	$43	116	0	+116	Down	-$43	04-03 21:38
will the bank of mexico announce a decrease at the march meeting	7	$30	35	35	+0	Yes	+$1	03-26 02:16
will the reserve bank of australia increase the target for the cash rate after the march meeting	6	$30	18	18	+0	Yes	+$1	03-16 02:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-06 22:30 UTC	7	$29	61	57	+4	Down	+$8	04-06 22:38
will the central bank of colombia announce an increase at the march meeting	5	$29	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	03-27 04:46
will the bank of mexico announce no change at the march meeting	5	$26	25	25	+0	No	+$2	03-26 12:20
HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 21:35 UTC	2	$23	58	0	+58	Down	-$23	04-03 21:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 23:16:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	19	10¢	$2	0x1b4365…
10-25 22:48:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	19	38¢	$7	0xbf28b3…
10-25 22:25:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	69	10¢	$7	0xb72821…
10-25 22:16:21	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	69	43¢	$30	0xc1d4c7…
10-25 22:10:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	86	35¢	$30	0xa91e69…
10-25 21:12:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	86	68¢	$58	0xedefe5…
10-25 20:31:21	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	86	68¢	$58	0x4a3406…
10-25 15:22:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	0	80¢	$0	0x486607…
10-25 15:22:44	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	86	80¢	$68	0x4d5e81…
10-24 19:10:23	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	80	83¢	$67	0xd4a554…
10-23 21:29:29	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	80	77¢	$61	0x56d5f5…
10-21 15:25:08	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0x921777…
10-20 11:36:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0xa33fd8…
10-15 21:34:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0x3859bd…
10-15 20:03:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0xeb02f7…
10-15 11:50:41	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0xec61b2…
10-14 21:31:09	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xbe5501…
10-14 21:30:42	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	3	85¢	$2	0x21d912…
10-05 21:38:16	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3	83¢	$2	0x18c0d2…
10-04 21:30:16	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x8181c5…
10-04 12:53:16	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	16	30¢	$5	0xb688fb…
10-02 21:30:03	Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x27f8ae…
10-02 21:29:18	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x2c1409…
10-02 21:27:32	Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xc19876…
10-02 21:20:32	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0xc14517…
10-02 21:19:21	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	16	26¢	$4	0xdc2e2a…
09-29 12:49:30	Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xf1c7a7…
09-29 12:47:08	Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xc61dad…
09-29 12:46:14	Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0xfc5539…
09-28 21:41:44	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	No	BUY	54	88¢	$48	0xb269dc…
09-28 21:38:21	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x9ebdbb…
06-30 11:42:43	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	200	24¢	$47	0x43849c…
06-27 23:21:10	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	200	22¢	$44	0x258458…
06-26 13:20:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0x0ca935…
06-26 12:59:16	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	Yes	SELL	63	55¢	$35	0x6b6bd2…
06-26 12:27:56	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	Yes	SELL	30	55¢	$16	0xcb0239…
06-25 21:12:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xea8a2c…
06-25 21:11:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$9	0xd8eec0…
06-25 18:21:05	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x4e2db9…
06-25 18:09:35	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	54¢	$27	0xf7a32e…
06-25 11:46:38	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	Yes	BUY	145	39¢	$57	0x11167a…
06-24 13:43:46	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	31¢	$2	0xa37fc1…
06-24 13:35:28	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	Yes	SELL	42	31¢	$13	0x5422e5…
06-23 11:05:49	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0x70e8f7…
06-23 11:05:13	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x5398eb…
06-22 22:37:05	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x8df29f…
06-17 21:52:50	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x6f96dd…
06-17 21:25:44	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xb54326…
06-12 12:03:39	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0x799fb5…
06-11 20:10:36	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x690d32…
06-09 04:02:49	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	38	64¢	$24	0xc75d26…
06-09 01:55:07	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	12	64¢	$8	0x530cbc…
06-08 19:25:22	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x37c4ee…
06-08 19:24:34	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x9a90f8…
06-08 19:23:48	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x32cc6e…
06-05 16:18:52	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	30	50¢	$15	0x66cdf1…
06-05 16:16:48	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	30	50¢	$15	0xc4b7d1…
06-05 13:28:49	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x99be77…
06-05 13:28:43	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x1fe756…
06-03 14:22:30	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	65	60¢	$39	0xa49e37…
06-03 14:14:11	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	11	60¢	$6	0x097a5c…
06-03 14:14:10	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	60¢	$9	0x855739…
06-03 13:47:30	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xffaf42…
06-03 13:47:30	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	58¢	$7	0xf51fd7…
06-03 13:47:30	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	58¢	$8	0xf40619…
06-03 13:47:30	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	62	58¢	$36	0xd160f0…
06-01 19:41:40	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	66	79¢	$52	0xc4649c…
05-27 23:49:46	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xe410e6…
05-27 17:39:47	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x12070e…
05-27 16:15:07	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x6218b1…
05-27 12:23:39	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21	86¢	$18	0x01ec84…
05-27 12:21:56	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	26	85¢	$22	0x42829a…
05-25 20:11:45	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	42	28¢	$12	0x0729fd…
05-25 12:04:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0x1ee634…
05-25 12:04:37	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	28	27¢	$8	0xc81896…
04-24 14:26:08	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	65	93¢	$61	0x27c381…
04-23 14:27:58	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	65	94¢	$61	0xcfd0d3…
04-13 18:53:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0x9c3c20…
04-13 09:01:33	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	67	4¢	$3	0x65f2b7…
04-13 08:03:35	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	70	4¢	$3	0xe92235…
04-13 05:23:05	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x1ef01c…
04-13 04:32:29	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0x7b8a41…
04-13 04:32:27	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x28425b…
04-13 04:32:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0xd12bb8…
04-13 04:32:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	0	6¢	$0	0x9e40d0…
04-13 04:32:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x372a2d…
04-13 04:32:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	0	6¢	$0	0x271f23…
04-13 04:32:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x23c2cb…
04-13 04:32:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	0	6¢	$0	0x11f624…
04-13 04:32:17	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	12	6¢	$1	0x72a265…
04-13 03:23:29	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 03:20 UTC	Up	BUY	81	4¢	$3	0x6e6d70…
04-13 01:33:17	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x82b9a8…
04-09 16:23:05	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 16:20 UTC	Up	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0x45c1a3…
04-09 16:23:01	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 16:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x8e2ff9…
04-09 16:23:01	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 16:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x4f43e0…
04-09 16:21:57	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 16:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x5b655e…
04-09 16:13:53	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0xc8cb7e…
04-09 16:13:51	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x29bc30…
04-09 16:13:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xb08575…
04-09 16:13:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0x8fe735…