Cautious-Quince — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.44K

Unrealized P&L

-$374

Hit rate

85.1%

Resolved

561

Trades

900

lifetime

Volume

$1.58M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.76K

Open exposure

$5.63K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-25 23:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 174 days

Categories

Other

65% 85% +$1,323

Sports

20% 77% -$1,021

Politics

14% 79% +$184

Crypto

1% 100% +$732

Tech

0% 100% +$222

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes		+6,163	$5,000	80¢	$4.9K	-$101	09-17 14:28
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes		+2,381	$1,000	30¢	$726	-$274	08-05 17:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	3	$51.5K	52,086	0	+52,086	No	+$586	05-08 20:15
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	4	$26.4K	23,773	8,259	+15,514	No	-$4,040	07-29 12:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$26.1K	14,129	14,129	+0	No	+$2,101	06-01 02:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	1	$25.0K	25,912	0	+25,912	No	+$912	05-10 13:38
Will Türkiye win on 2026-09-25?	2	$25.0K	25,929	0	+25,929	No	+$929	09-25 20:19
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys	4	$22.3K	24,648	2,144	+22,504	Buccaneers	+$940	10-09 02:47
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	2	$17.0K	17,343	0	+17,343	No	+$343	06-25 21:43
South Carolina vs. Florida	4	$16.9K	18,096	5,435	+12,661	South Carolina	-$89	10-10 19:42
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw?	4	$15.0K	15,671	0	+15,671	No	+$629	06-28 03:37
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	5	$14.5K	14,767	4,423	+10,343	No	-$3,186	07-01 21:59
Will Wales win on 2026-10-01?	3	$13.1K	10,948	10,948	+0	Yes	-$6,935	10-01 19:53
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	2	$13.0K	14,275	0	+14,275	No	+$1,275	07-14 20:24
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?	4	$13.0K	15,270	0	+15,270	No	+$2,270	06-30 18:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	6	$13.0K	13,760	0	+13,760	No	+$760	05-22 17:36
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?	3	$12.5K	12,935	0	+12,935	No	+$435	06-26 20:19
Raiders vs. Saints	3	$12.5K	14,751	2,703	+12,048	Raiders	+$508	09-27 23:22
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?	2	$11.0K	11,667	0	+11,667	No	+$667	06-30 21:53
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-04?	3	$10.8K	11,409	0	+11,409	No	+$658	09-04 20:57
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$10.0K	5,040	5,040	+0	Yes	+$35	06-17 21:57
49ers vs. Falcons	1	$10.0K	12,048	0	+12,048	Falcons	+$2,048	10-25 19:19
fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	1	$10.0K	10,753	0	+10,753	France	+$753	07-04 19:36
Commanders vs. 49ers	1	$10.0K	11,111	0	+11,111	49ers	+$1,111	10-20 00:48
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	2	$10.0K	12,287	0	+12,287	Argentina	+$2,287	07-07 16:42
Chargers vs. Chiefs	1	$10.0K	11,364	0	+11,364	Chiefs	+$1,364	10-18 20:42
Will France win on 2026-07-18?	3	$10.0K	12,273	0	+12,273	No	+$2,273	07-18 22:30
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$10.0K	10,496	0	+10,496	Yes	+$496	09-10 03:48
Dolphins vs. Raiders	1	$10.0K	10,246	0	+10,246	Raiders	+$246	09-13 22:48
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	2	$10.0K	10,536	0	+10,536	No	+$536	06-27 21:42
Cowboys vs. Packers	1	$10.0K	10,560	0	+10,560	Packers	+$560	10-19 03:02
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	2	$10.0K	10,570	0	+10,570	No	+$570	06-23 21:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 23:57:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5,910	1¢	$53	0x2eeef7…
10-25 19:36:53	Dolphins vs. Jets	Dolphins	BUY	6,862	95¢	$6,496	0x4664ba…
10-25 19:19:09	49ers vs. Falcons	Falcons	BUY	12,048	83¢	$10,000	0x38de7c…
10-25 19:18:21	Bengals vs. Ravens	Ravens	SELL	6,410	20¢	$1,282	0x503453…
10-25 18:23:32	Bengals vs. Ravens	Ravens	BUY	6,410	78¢	$5,000	0x5d6794…
10-25 03:25:33	Warriors vs. Suns	Suns	BUY	2,632	76¢	$2,000	0x8276a5…
10-24 23:35:56	BYU vs. UCF	UCF	BUY	3,788	79¢	$3,000	0x9d0f5e…
10-24 23:35:12	BYU vs. UCF	BYU	SELL	1,299	24¢	$312	0xde7f09…
10-24 23:24:29	BYU vs. UCF	BYU	BUY	1,299	77¢	$1,000	0xe79539…
10-24 23:12:21	Tennessee vs. South Carolina	South Carolina	BUY	1,283	78¢	$1,000	0x71891a…
10-23 03:56:38	Nuggets vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	2,841	88¢	$2,500	0x822ae9…
10-23 03:09:42	Patriots vs. Bears	Bears	BUY	5,263	95¢	$5,000	0x5fff10…
10-23 01:46:36	Cavaliers vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	2,235	89¢	$2,000	0xad3094…
10-22 02:05:38	Hornets vs. Nets	Hornets	BUY	5,376	93¢	$5,000	0x44b0a9…
10-22 01:51:39	Hawks vs. Magic	Hawks	BUY	5,138	97¢	$5,000	0x64598b…
10-21 20:27:18	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-21?	No	BUY	5,263	95¢	$5,000	0x8e5a8a…
10-21 16:50:36	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-21?	No	BUY	2,469	81¢	$2,000	0x407d99…
10-21 16:48:21	Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-21?	No	BUY	5,418	92¢	$5,000	0x33d269…
10-20 21:18:12	Celtics vs. Pistons	Celtics	SELL	1,352	15¢	$203	0x0c7d05…
10-20 21:18:05	Celtics vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	5,882	85¢	$5,000	0x2c22dd…
10-20 20:03:21	Celtics vs. Pistons	Celtics	BUY	1,352	74¢	$1,000	0x5d4154…
10-20 00:48:53	Commanders vs. 49ers	49ers	BUY	11,111	90¢	$10,000	0x668f5a…
10-19 03:02:59	Cowboys vs. Packers	Packers	BUY	10,560	95¢	$10,000	0x51aaea…
10-18 20:42:41	Chargers vs. Chiefs	Chiefs	BUY	11,364	88¢	$10,000	0x7d0c97…
10-18 18:56:00	Steelers vs. Buccaneers	Buccaneers	BUY	3,409	88¢	$3,000	0xf5e8ba…
10-18 18:43:14	Titans vs. Colts	Colts	BUY	5,495	91¢	$5,000	0x0b8e5f…
10-10 20:04:33	Texas vs. Oklahoma	Texas	BUY	6,250	80¢	$5,000	0x242c65…
10-10 19:42:00	South Carolina vs. Florida	South Carolina	BUY	5,435	92¢	$5,000	0x4a9e05…
10-10 19:24:19	South Carolina vs. Florida	South Carolina	BUY	7,226	67¢	$4,815	0xa24bc5…
10-10 19:21:31	South Carolina vs. Florida	Florida	SELL	5,435	38¢	$2,065	0x19919c…
10-10 17:16:01	South Carolina vs. Florida	Florida	BUY	5,435	92¢	$5,000	0x2572f6…
10-09 02:47:39	Buccaneers vs. Cowboys	Buccaneers	BUY	10,309	97¢	$10,000	0xe5cce6…
10-09 02:20:21	Buccaneers vs. Cowboys	Buccaneers	BUY	12,195	82¢	$10,000	0x9185db…
10-09 02:19:26	Buccaneers vs. Cowboys	Cowboys	SELL	2,144	17¢	$364	0x01fd67…
10-09 00:27:27	Buccaneers vs. Cowboys	Cowboys	BUY	2,144	90¢	$1,929	0xb922bb…
10-06 20:09:18	England vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	1,220	82¢	$1,000	0x7e0f63…
10-06 20:08:15	Will Croatia win on 2026-10-06?	No	BUY	2,688	93¢	$2,500	0xf718cb…
10-06 01:55:02	Falcons vs. Saints	Falcons	BUY	5,618	89¢	$5,000	0xc777b3…
10-05 12:37:19	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5,910	85¢	$5,000	0x935eb8…
10-04 23:12:01	Broncos vs. 49ers	49ers	BUY	5,517	91¢	$5,000	0x6db9e1…
10-04 22:11:32	Dolphins vs. Vikings	Vikings	BUY	3,244	92¢	$3,000	0x088bdb…
10-04 20:29:31	Will Greece win on 2026-10-04?	No	BUY	2,688	93¢	$2,500	0x2cb441…
10-04 20:28:16	Will Greece win on 2026-10-04?	No	BUY	2,719	92¢	$2,500	0x969554…
10-04 19:01:52	Packers vs. Buccaneers	Packers	BUY	2,247	89¢	$2,000	0xdd93c8…
10-04 17:01:43	Titans vs. Ravens	Ravens	BUY	5,814	86¢	$5,000	0x330cfc…
10-03 18:59:57	Merrimack vs. Yale	Yale	BUY	2,124	94¢	$2,000	0xad2d1e…
10-03 14:51:57	Boston College vs. SMU	SMU	BUY	2,688	93¢	$2,500	0x8fb39f…
10-03 14:51:38	Notre Dame vs. North Carolina	Notre Dame	BUY	2,688	93¢	$2,500	0x7e6e51…
10-02 20:18:33	Will Italy win on 2026-10-02?	No	BUY	2,222	90¢	$2,000	0x7e65c3…
10-02 20:07:33	Will Belgium vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	No	BUY	5,209	96¢	$5,000	0x9cf939…
10-02 19:20:36	Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-10-02?	No	BUY	3,534	85¢	$3,000	0x67be33…
10-02 19:19:26	Will Poland vs. Romania end in a draw?	No	BUY	5,185	96¢	$5,000	0xf06f01…
10-02 19:18:03	Will Ukraine win on 2026-10-02?	No	BUY	5,277	95¢	$5,000	0x788b6b…
10-02 19:17:18	Will Türkiye win on 2026-10-02?	No	BUY	5,328	94¢	$5,000	0xac8ea9…
10-02 01:34:05	Steelers vs. Browns	Browns	BUY	6,391	78¢	$5,000	0xeeb0ec…
10-01 20:06:20	Will Kosovo win on 2026-10-01?	No	BUY	1,365	73¢	$1,000	0x2f516b…
10-01 20:03:05	Will Greece vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	No	BUY	5,618	89¢	$5,000	0x4dfb89…
10-01 20:02:03	Will Republic of Ireland vs. Austria end in a draw?	No	BUY	2,198	91¢	$2,000	0x048b84…
10-01 19:55:12	Will Republic of Ireland vs. Austria end in a draw?	No	BUY	2,222	90¢	$2,000	0xb6f8e0…
10-01 19:53:54	Will Norway win on 2026-10-01?	No	BUY	5,435	92¢	$5,000	0xe12d73…
10-01 19:53:42	Will Wales win on 2026-10-01?	No	SELL	10,948	28¢	$3,065	0x7bee9f…
10-01 19:45:48	Will Netherlands win on 2026-10-01?	No	BUY	5,287	95¢	$5,000	0x32fff4…
10-01 19:09:17	Will Wales win on 2026-10-01?	No	BUY	5,266	95¢	$5,000	0x37b961…
10-01 14:05:08	Will Wales win on 2026-10-01?	No	BUY	5,682	88¢	$5,000	0x399cea…
09-29 20:38:18	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	2,105	95¢	$2,000	0x5015d6…
09-29 19:12:09	Will England win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	2,874	87¢	$2,500	0xbaa329…
09-29 19:10:54	Will Croatia win on 2026-09-29?	No	BUY	5,124	98¢	$5,000	0xdac900…
09-29 19:09:54	Will Scotland vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	No	BUY	5,432	92¢	$5,000	0x5751e3…
09-28 19:10:32	Will Poland win on 2026-09-28?	No	BUY	5,618	89¢	$5,000	0xb75295…
09-28 19:10:17	Will Türkiye win on 2026-09-28?	No	BUY	7,216	97¢	$7,000	0x591d2c…
09-28 01:17:15	Rams vs. Broncos	Rams	BUY	2,632	76¢	$2,000	0xc1f00d…
09-27 23:22:41	Raiders vs. Saints	Raiders	BUY	12,048	83¢	$10,000	0xa1c7a3…
09-27 23:22:18	Raiders vs. Saints	Saints	SELL	2,703	17¢	$459	0x74e38b…
09-27 22:45:32	Raiders vs. Saints	Saints	BUY	2,703	74¢	$2,000	0x17dded…
09-27 22:41:05	Cardinals vs. 49ers	49ers	BUY	2,300	87¢	$2,000	0xfdd87e…
09-27 22:33:57	Ravens vs. Cowboys	Ravens	BUY	3,488	86¢	$3,000	0xa6a3eb…
09-27 14:43:44	Cardinals vs. 49ers	49ers	BUY	1,299	77¢	$1,000	0x4b3084…
09-27 14:42:41	Will Kosovo win on 2026-09-27?	No	BUY	2,353	85¢	$2,000	0x214c85…
09-27 01:59:39	Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia	Oklahoma State	BUY	2,201	91¢	$2,000	0x6847fb…
09-27 01:46:48	nfl sea was 2026 09 27	Seahawks	BUY	1,299	77¢	$1,000	0x8a6b41…
09-27 01:41:03	Texas A&M vs. LSU	LSU	BUY	2,217	90¢	$2,000	0xf1e04c…
09-26 17:52:06	Ball State vs. Kent State	Kent State	BUY	2,610	96¢	$2,500	0x00c621…
09-26 13:11:44	Will North Macedonia win on 2026-09-26?	No	BUY	2,713	92¢	$2,500	0x55594b…
09-26 13:05:38	nfl kc mia 2026 09 27	Chiefs	BUY	1,176	85¢	$1,000	0xd0926e…
09-25 20:19:54	Will Türkiye win on 2026-09-25?	No	BUY	20,373	98¢	$20,000	0x2fc289…
09-25 19:13:57	Will Italy win on 2026-09-25?	No	BUY	2,353	85¢	$2,000	0x0dd0cb…
09-25 14:55:09	Will Türkiye win on 2026-09-25?	No	BUY	5,556	90¢	$5,000	0xf55365…
09-25 00:26:33	Falcons vs. Packers	Falcons	BUY	1,515	33¢	$500	0x337622…
09-24 20:39:29	Will Austria win on 2026-09-24?	No	SELL	1,449	5¢	$75	0xe68281…
09-24 20:33:54	Will Austria win on 2026-09-24?	No	BUY	1,449	69¢	$1,000	0x91dcb6…
09-24 19:54:17	Will Greece win on 2026-09-24?	No	BUY	2,474	81¢	$2,000	0x9d95f4…
09-24 19:45:45	Will Netherlands win on 2026-09-24?	No	BUY	3,049	82¢	$2,500	0x6a3573…
09-24 19:45:18	Will Portugal vs. Wales end in a draw?	No	BUY	2,653	94¢	$2,500	0xf5b9c9…
09-24 16:03:00	Will Denmark win on 2026-09-24?	No	BUY	5,941	84¢	$5,000	0xc86de1…
09-22 14:41:37	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5,564	90¢	$5,000	0x118ddd…
09-22 01:08:24	Giants vs. Rams	Rams	BUY	10,417	96¢	$10,000	0x4398d1…
09-21 00:20:08	Colts vs. Chiefs	Chiefs	BUY	3,472	72¢	$2,500	0x9396d9…
09-20 16:27:45	Browns vs. Buccaneers	Buccaneers	BUY	2,564	78¢	$2,000	0x94bf65…
09-20 16:27:25	Eagles vs. Titans	Eagles	BUY	2,667	75¢	$2,000	0xd8bb2c…
09-20 16:27:06	Panthers vs. Falcons	Panthers	BUY	1,786	56¢	$1,000	0x25f5f6…